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AFL Daily Fantasy Tips 2024: Round 3 Hawthorn vs Geelong

April 1st 2024, 11:01am, By: Jesse Penfold

AFL Fantasy Tips

We wind up Easter Round 3 of the 2024 AFL Premiership Season with the traditional Easter Monday clash between old rivals Hawthorn and Geelong at the MCG. While the sides are no longer the titans of past years, Geelong has started the season undefeated and will be looking get back into the finals series this year. Hawthorn are still in the middle of a rebuild but have been competitive through the first two rounds. You can bet Sam Mitchell will have them firing on all cylinders and treating this as their own grand final. 

Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Monday’s single game slate main being worth $60,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:

  • AFL $60,000+ Hawks vs Cats
  • AFL $5,000+ Hawks vs Cats High Roller ($150 Entry)
  • AFL $2,000+ Hawks vs Cats Fiver
  • AFL $3,000+ Hawks vs Cats Mini ($2 Entry)

The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.

Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!

Draftstars AFL Star

 

Betting Markets

Hawthorn ($2.90) vs Geelong ($1.40) - Odds thanks to PlayUp
Points: 153.5
Line: Geelong -15.5

If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same  account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer an strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.

Addtionally, we have a full Hawks vs Cats Betting Preview where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!

PlayUp

 

Weather

Forecast is 28 degrees but there is expected to be a monsoon level of rain hit the game through the afternoon (15 to 45mm). 

This will impact the game significantly so keep an eye on conditions as we get closer to the tip. Focus you lineups more heavily to contested players who rack up tackles and avoid outside players and key position players. 

 

Where to Attack?

Geelong have been one of the hardest teams to score against over the last 10 games going back to last year, while Hawthorn have given up above average points to forwards, inside midfielders and over 8 points above average to general defenders across that same period.

While the Hawks have given up points to backs, they also love to over possess the ball down back, especially at the MCG. Given the Cats are favoured I would be looking to stack up their forwards, but mainly focusing on smaller forwards given the conditions. Midfielders can come from both teams in this game, but focus on those who play inside and love tackles.

Game Script – Inside midfielders from both teams, Geelong forwards

 

VALUE PLAYS

Toby Conway ($6,000) will likely be the highest owned player on this slate. Coming into the Cats ruck replacing Rhys Stanley at a minimum price makes him the best value play in the match. Furthermore, the wet conditions will be ideal for rucks as you can expect the number of stoppages to grow significantly if the rain hits. Conway has just started his third season in the VFL and he was firing on all cylinders in round one showing his ability to put up fantasy points with a 104 point performance that included 17 disposals and 37 hit outs.

Brad Close ($8,870)… as I said above, I will be going to the small forwards in these conditions. Geelong are still favoured to win and should do against the Hawks and therefore stacking up some of the Cats small forwards is an elite play. Close has shown sufficient upside in the past at this price point and should be able to both hit the scoreboard, but also rack up tackles in slippery conditions noting he had 6 last week.

 

MID PRICED PLAYS

Brandon Parfitt ($12,190) looks to have found himself back in the Cats starting midfield this season. In what was expected to be somewhat of a transition season for Geelong they look like they have been able to retool the side on the fly and Parfitt will play a big role in this as the season goes on. Playing his first game of the season for the Cats last week he attended 61% of their centre bounces and posted 95 fantasy points. His inside role will suit well to the conditions.

 

PREMIUM PLAYS

Jai Newcombe ($14,580) was born for games like this. Not only is he a tough as nails competitor who is suited to thrive in the biggest games he also is a highly contested player and one of the best tacklers in the AFL, so he will be at home in the wet conditions. He has yet to really fire a shot this season with two 60 point range games to kick things off, but his role is there attending the highest number of centre bounces of any Hawk midfielder this year. He posted 25 disposals and over 4 tackles a game last year on his way to 93 fantasy points per game, so the upside is there.

Jai Newcombe also looks to have value ($6.50 at Ladbrokes) to be the match's highest fantasy scorer in these conditions.

Jai Newcombe Highest Fantasy Scorer

$6.50

 

Suggested Draftstars Lineup

Draftstars Lineup

 

Cheat Sheet

AFL Projections Data – Hawks vs Cats - Downloadable File (.xlsx)

Cheat Sheet

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