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AFL Daily Fantasy Tips 2024: Round 17 Saturday

July 5th 2024, 7:46pm, By: Jesse Penfold

AFL Fantasy Tips

Another huge five game Super Saturday for Round 17 for the 2024 AFL Premiership Season. Things get underway with Port Adelaide hosting the Western Bulldogs at the Adelaide Oval in what will be a key game for both teams’ finals hopes. Then we have a game stacker dream with the Gold Coast Suns traveling down to Melbourne to play North at Marvel Stadium. Geelong and Hawthorn will rekindle their rivalry at GMHBA Stadium before we head to the hammer games at night with Fremantle hosting Richmond out West and GWS and Carlton clashing at Engie Stadium.

Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Saturday main contest being worth $50,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:

  • AFL $50,000+ Saturday
  • AFL $5,000+ Saturday High Roller ($150 Entry)
  • AFL $3,000+ Saturday Mini ($2 Entry)

The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.

Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!

Draftstars AFL Star

 

Betting Markets

North Melbourne ($2.94) vs Gold Coast ($1.39)
Points: 170.5
Line: Gold Coast -17.5

Port Adelaide ($2.03) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.78)
Points: 167.5
Line: Western Bulldogs -2.5

Geelong ($1.52) vs Hawthorn ($2.47)

Points: 170.5
Line:  Geelong -11.5

GWS Giants ($2.25) vs Calton ($1.63)
Points: 164.5
Line:  Carlton -6.5

Fremantle ($1.07) vs Richmond ($8.00)
Points: 165.5
Line:  Fremantle -43.5

If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer a strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.

Additionally, we have a full AFL Round 17 Betting Previews for all five games where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!

PlayUp

 

Weather

Adelaide – 17 degrees and sunny

Geelong – 13 degrees and cloudy

Perth – 17 degrees and partly cloudy

Sydney – 17 degrees and a shower or two

Football weather for this Saturday’s game, no real rain to impact our fantasy selections.

 

Where to Attack?

Richmond are the top team to target on this slate. Sitting second last on the ladder with just 2 wins, it’s no real shock to see that they are conceding large fantasy scores across all positions this season. Fremantle are over 40-point favourites in this matchup out in Perth, which means we can expect a fill up for their forwards, and the Tigers have been giving up the most fantasy points in the league to general forwards and over 2 points above league average to key forwards.

The best part of this matchup, however, is the fact that Fremantle love to rack up uncontested possessions across their half backs to their wings, and the Tigers have been giving up a league high to wings and attacking half backs, and the second most points to designated kickers out of the back line.

An area to consider through the midfield is targeting Geelong. The Cats have been giving up over 10 points per game above league average to inside midfielders, which is the most in the league.

Game Script – Fremantle forwards, wings and backs, Hawthorn midfielders

 

VALUE PLAYS

Oliver Hollands ($6,000) price has dipped back down to the minimum again after a string of poor games. On a slate without a clear value option, I like using Hollands at this price point as he has shown 86-point upside and has averaged 55 points per game over his last 6 games. 

If you are looking elsewhere for value, consider Lawson Humphries ($6,960) up back who is fresh off a debut 69 point game for Geelong or Jye Amiss ($7,140) up forward as part of a Fremantle stack in a game they are expected to win easily.

 

MID PRICED PLAYS

Heath Chapman ($10,130) is priced nicely off the half back in an elite matchup against Richmond. I would be looking to stack up the Docker backs as their game style is to over possess the football and that should be easy to do so against a Tiger team in Perth. Chapman’s season high is only 90 points but he has shown 100+ upside in previous years and linking him with a premium play such as Luke Ryan ($14,900) will have a huge combined ceiling.

Josh Treacy ($11,860) is having an absolute break out year averaging 73 fantasy points per game and this will be one of his best matchups all season. He has flashed 100+ ceiling twice already this year and as noted at the top the Tigers have their troubles against forwards, and the Dockers are over 40-point favourites which means there will be plenty of opportunity for Josh.

Ned Moyle ($10,130) has had solid output without being outstanding this season as the sole ruck. He has posted an average of 79 points across four games but he is primed for a breakout soon. His VFL performances have been eye turning culminating with a 156-point game last week where he racked up a ridiculous 71 hit outs, 21 disposals and kicked 2 goals. I love playing for the upside at this price on a tough ruck day when you know his floor is relatively solid at 80 points.

 

PREMIUM PLAYS

Jai Newcombe ($14,240) has seen his average production drop off somewhat this season, but has hit form in recent weeks as the Hawks continue to string wins together. He’s had back-to-back 99-point games but comes into a matchup against the Cats who give up the most points in the league to inside midfielders. The thinner ground down at Geelong will suit him and we have seen upside in excess of the 140-point mark in the past.

Andrew Brayshaw ($15,540) should fill up in this matchup. He brings slate breaking scoring potential as we have seen this season this his 148 and 136-point games. As we noted above the Tigers give up points across the ground but in particular to those who float back and along the wings to pick up uncontested disposals, which plays right into Brayshaw’s game style.

 

Suggested Draftstars Team

Draftstars Team

 

Cheat Sheets

Cheat Sheet

Cheat Sheet

Cheat Sheet

Cheat Sheet

Cheat Sheet

 

Jesse has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years, and actively plays both AFL and basketball in both season long and daily fantasy competitions.

Jesse has been an integral member of the DFS team, writing and contributing to Daily Fantasy Rankings and Before You Bet since 2019.

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