Round 22 was full of upsets as the race for finals was thrown wide open. From a 0-5 start to the season, the Hawks are somehow inside the top 8 after defeating Carlton, with the Blues now leading some luck to see finals action. The Pies lost so it looks like their season is over, along with Melbourne and Essendon who suffered narrow defeats. The battle for the top four and double chance is also heating up after the Lions' nine-game winning streak came to an end at the hands of the Giants.
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 22 Overview
Our 2024 Brownlow leaders look to have missed out on votes in Round 22. Isaac Heeney is ineligible but back in the votes in Round 22, while Tom Green could be the smokey for the Brownlow this season with the Giants winning and Green not having a lot of competition for votes around the ball. Caleb Serong and Zach Merrett might also pick up a vote or two to close the gap on the leaders, while Marcus Bontempelli had a good game in a loss for the Dogs, but was it enough to poll? It could be an important round for him if he can pinch a vote or two here.
Check out our 2024 Round 22 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 22 Match Analysis
Sydney 13.11.89 def Collingwood 12.14.86
A remarkable game to start Round 22 as Collingwood looked to have the game in hand before a stunning last quarter from the Swans saw them escape with the win. Isaac Heeney was back to his best with 32 disposals, 6 marks, 7 clearances and capped off with a goal in a sensational last quarter. Chad Warner (33 disposals, 8 clearances, 2 goals) was also incredible to will his side over the line. Nick Blakey (24 disposals, 7 marks) was reliable at half-back while James Rowbottom (21 disposals, 7 clearances) was important early. Darcy Cameron (19 disposals, 7 marks, 25 hitouts, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was huge for the Pies, while Nick Daicos (25 disposals, 9 clearances) was good in the first half but unlikely to poll votes.
Isaac Heeney - 3
Chad Warner - 2
Darcy Cameron - 1
North Melbourne 14.13.97 def by West Coast 15.12.102
The Roos snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as the Eagles stunned with three goals in the last 90 seconds to pinch victory. Jeremy McGovern was the difference with 25 disposals and 6 marks as he continued to repel the attack of the Roos. Oscar Allan was the match winner with the final goal among 5 goals from 14 disposals. The Eagles were well beaten in most other areas of the ground with Harry Sheezel (31 disposals, 7 tackles, 2 goals), Colby McKercher (37 disposals) and Tom Powell (26 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances, 2 goals) all prolific while Tristan Xerri (30 disposals, 6 marks, 12 tackles, 33 hitouts, 13 clearances) was once again a beast with a massive game.
Jeremy McGovern - 3
Harry Sheezel - 1
Tristan Xerri - 1
Oscar Allan - 1
Brisbane 8.16.64 def by GWS Giants 13.4.82
Poor accuracy from the Lions early left the door open for the Giants who slammed home the last six goals of the match to snap the Lions winning streak. Tom Green (28 disposals), James Peatling (20 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances) and Finn Callaghan (24 disposals, 1 goal) led the way in the middle while Jesse Hogan (3 goals, 16 disposals, 6 marks), Darcy Jones (18 disposals, 2 goals) and Aaron Cadman (3 goals, 11 disposals) were influential up forward. Will Ashcroft (29 disposals, 9 marks) played his best game since returning from injury while Charlie Cameron (17 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) was lively.
Tom Green - 2
James Peatling - 2
Will Ashcroft - 0.5
Darcy Jones - 0.5
Fremantle 9.8.62 def by Geelong 10.13.73
Geelong slugged out a hard-fought win on the road against the Dockers who are now under pressure to hold onto their spot in the eight. Patrick Dangerfield (20 disposals, 11 clearances, 1 goal) led from the front in the middle, while Gryan Miers (23 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) was busy and Zach Guthrie (20 disposals, 10 marks) was good at half-back. Caleb Serong (22 disposals, 6 clearances, 3 goals) was again very good for the Dockers, while Luke Ryan (36 disposals, 15 marks), Jordan Clark (28 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) and Jeremy Sharp (28 disposals, 13 marks) won plenty of cheap ball.
Patrick Dangerfield - 3
Caleb Serong - 2
Luke Ryan - 1
Essendon 12.14.86 def by Gold Coast 13.9.87
The Bombers let another one through their fingers, kicking 1.9 in the last quarter, as Mac Andrew (4 goals, 13 disposals) was the hero for the Suns with a goal after the siren. Matt Rowell (32 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) was enormous, while Sam Collins (14 disposals, 9 marks) and Sam Flanders (22 disposals, 2 goals) were good contributors for the Suns. Zach Merrett (32 disposals, 8 marks), Nic Martin (36 disposals, 7 marks) and Mason Redman (27 disposals, 9 marks) were best for the Dons.
Matt Rowell - 3
Mac Andrew - 1
Nic Martin - 1
Zach Merrett - 1
Melbourne 7.9.51 def by Port Adelaide 7.11.53
The Power snatched the win in a thriller to end a tough season for the Demons. Jason Horne-Francis was huge with 28 disposals, 13 marks and 2 goals to will his side over the line. Zak Butters (30 disposals, 1 goal), Travis Boak (29 disposals, 9 marks) and Connor Rozee (28 disposals, 6 clearances) were also impressive for the Power. Kysaiah Pickett (21 disposals, 6 tackles, 4 goals) was a stand out for the Dees.
Jason Horne-Francis - 3
Kysaiah Pickett - 2
Zak Butters - 1
Carlton 5.8.38 def by Hawthorn 16.16.112
The Hawks thumped the Blues to switch positions with them inside the top eight after starting the season 0-5. Dylan Moore (29 disposals, 15 marks), James Sicily (30 disposals, 10 marks), Massimo D’Ambrosio (31 disposals, 6 marks) were prolific while Josh Weddle (18 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) and Jarman Impey (25 disposals, 6 marks) were dynamic off half-back. Matthew Kennedy (33 disposals, 10 marks, 6 clearances) and Blake Acres (28 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) were a couple of the Blues who could hold their heads up.
Dylan Moore - 3
Massimo D’Ambrosio - 2
Josh Weddle - 0.5
Jarman Impey - 0.5
Richmond 7.9.51 def by St Kilda 15.9.99
The Saints did what they had to do and got the points against the bottom-of-the-ladder Tigers. Rowan Marshall (23 disposals, 11 marks, 25 hitouts, 3 goals), Jack Sinclair (29 disposals, 9 marks), Josh Battle (28 disposals, 9 marks) and Callum Wilkie (23 disposals, 11 marks) were among the Saints best. Daniel Rioli (36 disposals, 10 marks) was the clear stand out for the Tigers.
Rowan Marshall - 2.5
Daniel Rioli - 2.5
Josh Battle - 1
Adelaide 17.9.111 def Western Bulldogs 9.18.72
The Crows upset the Dogs in the final match of the round, to leave the Dogs clinging onto a spot in the top eight. Jordan Dawson (27 disposals, 6 marks, 9 tackles, 1 goal), Lachie Sholl (34 disposals, 9 marks) and Matt Crouch (32 disposals, 7 clearances) won plenty of ball, Reilly O’Brien (11 disposals, 58 hitouts) dominated the hitouts, while Ben Keays (3 goals, 19 disposals, 8 marks) and Darcy Fogarty (5 goals, 9 disposals, 8 marks) hit the scoreboard. Marcus Bontempelli (26 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles, 2 goals) was good but perhaps without his usual influence for the Dogs.
Jordan Dawson - 3
Ben Keays - 2
Darcy Fogarty - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
