It's starting to be make or break for several teams this season as we round the half-way mark and head into the bye rounds.
While the Pies snatched their second draw of the season in Round 11, fellow Grand Finalist Brisbane might be in trouble after another poor loss to Hawthorn. The Cats have lost four in a row, while the Bulldogs are struggling to break through against the top sides and are now in danger.
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page (coming soon).
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 11 Overview
Round 11 might cause a few murmurs in the audience on Brownlow Medal night as the contenders (finally) start to emerge from the pack to challenge the lead of Swan Isaac Heeney.
Nick Daicos, Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett, Max Gawn, Chad Warner, Marcus Bontempelli and Jordan Dawson are all likely to be in the votes in Round 11 after some monsterous performances. Heeney is a chance for a votes as well, but with the form of Chad Warner, it will be interesting to see them if they start to steal votes from each other.
Check out our 2024 Round 11 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 11 Match Analysis
Western Bulldogs 12.16.88 def by Sydney 16.6.102
The Bulldogs were again wasteful with their chances as Sydney flexed after half time and then held on to win a tight contest. Chad Warner broke the game open in the third quarter to end with 4 goals from 25 disposals and 6 marks to be a clear best on ground. Errol Gulden (25 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) and Isaac Heeney (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) were as solid as ever. Adam Treloar (30 disposals, 6 clearances) and Marcus Bontempelli (26 disposals, 6 tackles) were best for the Dogs.
Chad Warner - 3
Errol Gulden - 1
Isaac Heeney - 1
Marcus Bontempelli - 1
Fremantle 11.9.75 drew with Collingwood 10.15.75
Another draw for the Pies but this was a win they let slip through their fingers as the Dockers kicked the last four goals of the match. We always say that voting can be tricky in draws but Nick Daicos should pick up the three votes for his 35 disposals, 7 tackles and 10 clearances. Josh Daicos (26 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal), Patrick Lipinski (21 disposals, 1 goal) and Joe Richards (22 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) were also good for Collingwood. Freo was led by Andrew Brayshaw (31 disposals, 1 goal) and Jeremy Sharp (26 disposals, 1 goal) while Jordan Clark (35 disposals, 8 marks) provided run from the back half.
Nick Daicos - 3
Andrew Brayshaw - 1.5
Jordan Clark - 1.5
North Melbourne 7.6.48 def by Port Adelaide 16.11.107
No issues for Port as they landed the easy four points against the winless Roos. Ollie Wines (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances, 2 goals), Jason Horne-Francis (24 disposals, 10 clearances, 1 goal) and Travis Boak (25 disposals, 12 marks) were influential in the middle while Todd Marshall came back from a concussion scare to kick 5 goals from 13 disposals and 11 marks. Luke Davies-Uniacke (35 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) was again the best for North Melbourne.
Ollie Wines - 3
Todd Marshall - 1
Jason Horne-Francis - 1
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 1
Carlton 15.12.102 def Gold Coast 11.7.73
Carlton did enough to shake off Gold Coast and get an important win. It was the usual suspects for Carlton with Patrick Cripps (31 disposals, 6 tackles, 13 clearances, 1 goal) and Sam Walsh (32 disposals, 6 marks) leading the way as Gold Coast’s ball winners were subdued. Tom De Koning (25 disposals, 27 hitouts, 10 clearances) was good in the ruck, while Charlie Curnow (4 goals, 13 disposals) and Zak Williams (4 goals, 15 disposals) hit the scoreboard.
Patrick Cripps - 3
Sam Walsh - 2
Charlie Curnow - 1
Geelong 11.8.74 def by GWS Giants 11.12.78
A great win for the Giants as the Cats suffered another loss at the Cattery. Toby Greene was the hero with the match-winning goal amongst 24 disposals, 7 marks and 2 goals. Kieren Briggs (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 44 hitouts, 8 clearances) was dominant in the ruck while Jack Riccardi (4 goals, 11 disposals) provided a target up forward. Max Holmes was the stand out for the Cats with 32 disposals, 6 marks and 1 goal.
Toby Greene - 3
Max Holmes - 2
Kieren Briggs - 0.5
Jack Riccardi - 0.5
Richmond 10.14.74 def by Essendon 12.14.86
It was a good contest for Dreamtime at the G, but Essendon held on for a hard-fought win. The Bombers controlled the game across half-back with Jordan Ridley (31 disposals, 12 marks, 1 goal), Mason Redman (24 disposals, 8 marks) and Nic Martin (29 disposals, 6 marks) all rebounding with authority. Zach Merrett (31 disposals, 1 goal) and Sam Durham (25 disposals) were tireless in the middle while Nick Hind (25 disposals, 2 goals) was lively. Dustin Martin (23 disposals, 3 goals) threatened at times in a good showing for the Tigers.
Jordan Ridley - 3
Zac Merrett - 2
Dustin Martin - 1
Hawthorn 15.10.100 def Brisbane 10.15.75
The Hawks continued their impressive form as they stunned Brisbane. James Worpel (28 disposals, 9 clearances), Karl Amon (29 disposals, 11 marks), Will Day (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal), and James Sicily (26 disposals, 8 marks) were influential while Jack Gunston converted with 4 goals from 11 disposals and 7 marks. Lachie Neale (29 disposals) was best on a sour day for the Lions.
James Worpel - 2
Jack Gunston - 2
Lachie Neale - 1
Will Day - 1
Melbourne 14.16.100 def St Kilda 9.8.62
Max Gawn was unstoppable as the Dees easily accounted for the Saints. Big Max racked up 27 disposals, 7 marks, 34 hitouts, 10 clearances and a goal in a superb performance. He spoon-fed the likes of Christian Petracca (24 disposals, 2 goals), Alex Neal-Bullen (27 disposals, 6 clearances) and Christian Salem (32 disposals, 14 marks). Down back, Steven May (25 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) and Adam Tomlinson (25 disposals, 7 marks) completely blanketed the Saints forwards. Jack Steele (33 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) tried hard but to no avail.
Max Gawn - 3
Steven May - 1
Christian Petracca - 1
Adam Tomlinson - 1
Adelaide 21.11.137 def West Coast 5.8.38
Adelaide made light work of the Eagles with skipper Jordan Dawson brilliant with 32 disposals, 9 marks and 2 goals. Lachie Sholl (34 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal), Rory Laird (31 disposals, 10 clearances) and Matt Crouch (30 disposals, 8 marks) dominated the midfield. The goals were shared around but Chayce Jones (19 disposals, 3 goals) and Darcy Fogarty (20 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) were lively.
Jordan Dawson - 3
Lachie Sholl - 2
Rory Laird - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
