Australian sides have their first shot at proving themselves on Kiwi soil in Super Rugby Pacific Round 4 with the NSW Waratahs, Melbourne Rebels and Western Force on the road.
We found a nice $3.10 winner last weekend when the ACT Brumbies fell into the 1-12 point winning range against the Queensland Reds.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 4 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Hurricanes v NSW Waratahs
Sky Stadium, Wellington, Friday March 17, 5:05pm (AEDT)
The Waratahs won twice in NZ last season so that barrier has been conquered by this playing group. Less appealing is losing their last five matches against the Hurricanes.
The Waratahs desperately need a strong result and switching young gun Max Jorgensen to fullback is a good start. He will offer far more attacking punch than Ben Donaldson, who is in his specialist slot as flyhalf. Jorgensen has made six line breaks from just 13 carries this season.
Defending well means everything to this Waratahs’ effort. On stats, only one team is averaging fewer missed tackles per game than the Waratahs. That’s only a pointer. They have to nail the big ones and not give the Hurricanes free chances to run.
Waratahs +15.5
$1.83 (3 Units)
Chiefs v Melbourne Rebels
FMG Stadium, Hamilton, Saturday March 18, 2:35pm (AEDT)
The Chiefs are resting All Blacks like Damian McKenzie and Brodie Retallick for this one but they still have extraordinary firepower. No team in the comp has made more line breaks (34).
The Chiefs have won five straight against the Rebels by an average of 20 points.
Putting Bryn Gatland at No.10 for McKenzie is like bringing in a Kia Carnival for a Porsche. Gatland knows how to distribute and will bring others into play.
The Rebels did some excellent work to topple the Waratahs last round. Consistency has never been the club’s strong point.
The backrow, flyhalf Carter Gordon, centre Stacey Ili and halfback Ryan Louwrens have to step up again.
The Chiefs just have too much going for them at home.
Chiefs –18.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
ACT Brumbies v Moana Pasifika
GIO Stadium, Canberra, Saturday March 18, 7:35pm (AEDT)
The Brumbies know only too well what happens if they drop intensity by five per cent. They lost to Moana Pasifka 32-22 last year so they’ve had a valuable wake-up call to know how difficult this game can be.
Moana Pasifika are 0-8 when playing as the away team in this competition so there’s a significant mental hurdle for them.
You have to like the settled look of the Brumbies line-up. They have big assets in the pack and that is traditionally how teams have put the squeeze on Moana Pasifika.
Locks Nick Frost and Cadeyrn Neville can mess up the Moana Pasifika lineout with steals and the Brumbies scrum can also take charge. This is the sort of match-up where the Brumbies’ rolling maul off 5m lineouts is going to produce a try for either Connal McInerney or Lachy Lonergan at hooker.
Moana Pasifika are 0-3 but their attackers have beaten 94 defenders, the second most of any side.
It’s a tough night to contain their dynamic runners but the pragmatic Brumbies know how to get this job done.
Moana Pasifika +18.5
$1.89 (3 Units)
Highlanders v Western Force
Rugby Park, Invercargill, Sunday March 19, 1:35pm (AEDT)
The 0-3 Highlanders are ordinary by Kiwi standards but that doesn’t mean they can’t put away the Western Force.
The Highlanders have beaten the Force at their last five meetings.
The Force have shown admirable fight to win twice this season at the death which is what you want to establish the identity of a new-look team under new coach Simon Cron.
The Highlanders’ attack has spluttered this season so the Force have to apply early pressure. A 10-0 jump by the Force and it’s game on. Otherwise, it could be a tough afternoon in one of rugby’s southernmost towns.
Highlanders halfback Aaron Smith will take charge. His presence alone gives the Kiwis clear favouritism.
The Force will be keen to see how debutant English halfback Gareth Simpson fares. He's sharp.
Highlanders –16.5
$1.88 (3 Units)
Queensland Reds v Fijian Drua
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Sunday March 19, 4:00pm (AEDT)
The Reds nearly blew this game last year when they went to sleep and the Fijians rallied. It took a late piece of Seru Uru magic to get out with a 33-28 victory.
This should be a terrific spectacle and a 60-points-plus affair with the afternoon kick-off suiting both sides.
The Reds will always back their attack but getting too gung-ho is unwise. A big turnover or a thumping Fijian tackle to jolt a ball loose can be seven-point punishment every time.
The Fijians won superbly a week ago when they beat the Crusaders in Lautoka. They are fitter, more confident and more organised than 2022 and have already matched the two wins of that campaign.
A Reds win with James O’Connor back at No.10 but the Queenslanders have to play smart and perhaps a bit boring to guarantee this win.
Jordan Petaia has scored in all three Reds’ matches this season and is fair value to do so from the wing in this one (One Try and Win at $1.95 with TAB.com.au)
Reds By 8-14
$4.60 (3 Units)
More Round 4 Betting Tips
Blues v Crusaders
Eden Park, Auckland, Saturday March 18, 5:05pm (AEDT)
Blues –1.5 ($1.83) - Bet now at Ladbrokes
