Just the one game for Friday Night Football this week, and thankfully it’s a good one, as the Eels take their annual home game north to TIO Stadium in Darwin, where they will take on the ladder leading Broncos. The Broncos will be looking for revenge, after being humiliated 53-6 at Suncorp Stadium late last year by the Eels.
NRL Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
Parramatta Eels vs Brisbane Broncos
TIO Stadium, Friday 21st April, 8:00pm (AEST)
The Eels weren’t great for large periods of their matchup against the Bulldogs last week, despite the 30-4 scoreline, and there’s definitely some areas of concern for the Eels. The Eels committed 13 errors, whilst winning the penalty count 9-3 against my 2nd lowest rated team in the NRL. So yes, winning two straight is a positive for the Eels, however with these wins being over the Tigers and Bulldogs, I can’t put much stock into the victories.
The Broncos appeared in genuine trouble against the Titans last week, trailing 14-6 as the half time siren was getting ready to sound. A Herbie Farnworth try on the stroke of half-time appeared the catalyst the Broncos needed, as they ran in 5 unanswered tries to run out 43-26 winners. Their defensive effort is a concern, but when you can score 43 points, you can feel a little better.
The number hasn’t changed all that much for this clash, with both teams winning and covering their spreads last week, leading to not much change in how the market views both these teams. Whilst my numbers aren’t massively different to market, I still like the Broncos in this one.
The Broncos currently score the most points per game (28.86), whilst running for the 2nd most metres per game. Interestingly, on a per run basis, the Broncos are averaging 10.25 metres per run, compared to the 9.14 metres per run for the Eels.
An interesting stat that could prove critical considering both teams’ halfback, is the kick return metres that both teams have, and concede. The Broncos currently make the 2nd most metres of any team from kick returns (202m per game), compared to the 11th placed Eels (158.7m per game). Then when we look at kick return metres conceded, the Broncos sit with the 3rd least metres per game (147.4m per game), compared to the most metres conceded per game by the Eels (199m per game). We can deduce with this information that the Broncos should lead the field position battle in this matchup, and I believe they’ll get the job done off the back of this advantage.
A quick look at the history at TIO Stadium, and you can see that a blowout is a real chance. Of the 10 NRL games at the venue, half have been blowouts of 22 points or more. Given this, I’ll have a dabble at some alt spreads for the Broncos to put the Eels to the sword in this one.
Other Bets
Brisbane Broncos (13+) - $2.65 @ Boombet (1u)
Brisbane Broncos (19+) - $6 @ NEDS (0.5u)
Brisbane Broncos -1.5
$1.91 (2.5 Units)
