Part 2 of Friday Night Football will see the reigning back-to-back Premiers taking on the Brisbane Broncos at BlueBet Stadium. Whilst it will be interesting to see where the Broncos are this season, the far bigger question mark will be on the Panthers, who lost two of their absolute best in Api Koroisau and Viliame Kikau. The whispers are growing louder that the Panthers era of dominance is coming to an end, but will it start in week 1?
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Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos Preview & Betting Tips
BlueBet Stadium, Friday 3rd March, 8:05pm (AEDT)
The first game of the season always presents more questions than answers, and this game is no exception. The Broncos appear to be one of the more stable teams heading into season 2023, with Head Coach Kevin Walters remaining in charge, and the bulk of their squad remaining the same. Key recruits include Martin Taupau and Reece Walsh, with their key losses including Jamayne Isaako, Te Maire Martin, Brenko Lee, and Tyson Gamble. The Broncos were about as close to league average as it could be last season, and I see them being right around the same position this season.
The Panthers, on the other hand, have plummeted in terms of power rating from the market. For reference, when these teams met in Penrith in round 6 last season, the Panthers were massive 23.5-point favourites. They went on to cover this number, winning 40-12. To now, less than 12 months later, sit 13.5-point favourites at home, is a huge downgrade. Whilst I agree the Panthers won’t be as dominant as last season, I still think this is a big reaction to the losses of Kikau and Koroisau.
The Broncos started last season well, beating the Rabbitohs 11-4 in round 1. I can see them starting well again this year, and whilst I don’t think they can beat the Panthers, if they kept it close I wouldn’t be overly surprised. The Panthers also started well last year, beating the Sea Eagles 28-6 at home without Nathan Cleary, so both teams will be ready to go.
So, the total is where I shift my attention to, which is currently set around the 40.5/41.5 range. I like the under here, with the Broncos likely to lean heavily on their defence early in the season as they get used to a new hooker. More importantly though, I don’t trust the Panthers to pile on the points early in the year. They looked clunky in attack in the World Club Challenge, and the losses of Koroisau and Kikau will be felt more in attack. You know the Panthers’ defence will be elite, so until they prove they can again score 30+ a game, give me the unders.
Under 41.5 Points
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
