Both Richmond and West Coast are in desperate need of a win to kickstart their respective campaigns, and one of them will secure one today when they face off in the first of five games on AFL Super Saturday. We bring you our full preview, best bet, and Same Game Multi for the clash.
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AFL Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
Richmond vs West Coast
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, May 6th, MCG
The first of five games on AFL Super Saturday will be played at the home of footy between Richmond and West Coast. Both clubs enter Round 8 in the bottom form on the ladder, so to say these teams need a win is an understatement.
Richmond started the season in fine form with a draw and a win in their opening two games, but their form has completely fallen away since and they now find themselves in 16th place. Arguably their worst loss of the season to date came at home against the Suns last weekend. The Tigers were beaten in basically all of the major statistics and finished with a season-low 48 points scored.
Injuries to key talls has been the biggest problem for the Tigers so far, particularly down back where they’re without the likes of Robbie Tarrant and Josh Gibcus. However, even the key defenders that have been suiting up (i.e. Nathan Broad and Noah Balta) have been underwhelming. This has resulted in the Tigers giving up 95 points per game across their last four matches, which is a number that isn’t going to have you winning many games.
West Coast’s nightmare 2022 season has spilled over into 2023, and if there’s been any improvement from this campaign compared to last, then it’s too small to notice. They were absolutely dismantled at home by the Blues last weekend (44-152) and have now lost five straight games by 40+ points.
Similar to last season, the Eagles have a ton of injuries and are playing a bunch of kids that clearly aren’t ready for league footy at this stage in their development. However, these things happen when list managers continue to hand out lucrative contracts to senior players with proven durability issues, so the excuses are starting to run thin.
The fact that Richmond’s lost five in a row yet are currently 40-point favourites this weekend shows you just how horrible the Eagles are right now. However, I just can’t bring myself to back a team that’s won 1/7 games to cover such a big handicap, so I’m looking elsewhere for value in this match.
Instead, I’ll be backing the Unders in the total points line which sits at 168.5 at the time of writing. That total may seem low considering the Eagles have given up 114 points per game across their last five, but there is some method to my madness.
The Tigers are missing a couple of key forwards and as such are only averaging 72 points per game this season. On top of that, there’s 3-10mm of rain and possible thunderstorms + hail forecasted for Saturday afternoon. There’s every chance these two bottom four sides play out a slog that goes well under the current total points line.
Under 168.5 Points
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Jayden Short 25+ Disposals – Has been racking them up in the midfield in his last two with 30 and 32 disposals. He’s great value for at least 25 here.
Daniel Rioli 20+ Disposals – Rioli has had 20+ disposals in seven straight matches and should get plenty of ball against the inexperienced Eagles.
Liam Duggan 20+ Disposals – Duggan is one of the Eagles more experienced players now and they need him to continue to step up. He’s had 20+ disposals in three straight games.
Same Game Multi odds - $3.50
