Saturday football continues at Marvel Stadium, with the Western Bulldogs taking on Hawthorn in the twilight fixture. The Dogs are in hot form winning three of their last four games, and will be looking for a big performance in Marcus Bontempelli’s 200th game. Can the Dogs keep rolling? Or will the Hawks cause an upset?
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AFL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, April 29th, Marvel Stadium
A complete performance in the west saw the Bulldogs cruise to a 49 point victory over Fremantle in Round 6. The Dogs had 33 scoring shots to 19, and had they kicked more accurately it could’ve been a massive blowout. Despite the inaccuracy, it was positive signs for a Bulldogs side that has struggled forward of centre this season having not kicked 100 points in any of their first five games.
It’s mixed news at the selection table for the Bulldogs, with Tom Liberatore out through concussion, but they do regain Bailey Smith who has missed the last two weeks with a calf injury.
Sam Mitchell has swung the axe after their heartbreaking loss to the Crows, dropping Denver Grainger-Barras, Cameron Mackenzie, Ned Long and Connor Macdonald. Max Lynch will miss through injury, while sub Jack Scrimshaw hasn’t held his spot.
The Hawks have some big inclusions regaining Mitch Lewis, Will Day and Josh Ward. Josh Weddle and Max Ramsden will make their AFL debuts after strong form in the VFL.
A Fergus Greene goal looked like sealing an upset win for the Hawks against Adelaide, however the Hawks conceded six shots at goal, which the Crows managed to kick two, to secure a three point win.
The Bulldogs run of form in the last month has come on the back of their defence hitting their stride. The Dogs have conceded an average score of 69 points per game in their last four games, after conceding 103 points per game across the opening fortnight of the season.
Liam Jones has led the way for the Dogs, who took ten marks and had seven intercept possessions against Fremantle. After suffering an injury in Round One, Jones has hit form over the last month and has given the Dogs an elite key defender that they’ve lacked for a long time.
The midfield is where the Bulldogs will possess their biggest advantage in this clash. The Hawks lack experience in the centre of the ground, and have struggled at the coal face, ranking sixteenth in the AFL for contested possessions. The Dogs rank 5th and the Hawks don’t have players who can go with the likes of Bontempelli, Treloar and Macrae.
Hawthorn’s struggles at the contest have meant they’ve been playing the game inside their defensive half. The Hawks ranked 18th in the league for inside 50’s, and whilst the Dogs can struggle to convert inside 50’s, the weight of numbers will always prevail. If the Bulldogs dominate territory in this game, they’ll kick a big score.
Although the Dogs should win this game comfortably, the over is the market to go in this clash, on a fast deck at Marvel with the Dogs capable of putting up big scores. The Hawks have conceded 100 points in three of their six games this season, and have struggled to keep teams out of their defensive 50. Although Hawthorn conceded 79 and 79 points in their last two games, that came down to the Giants kicking 10.17 and the Crows kicking 11.13. With pristine conditions at Marvel, the Bulldogs are in for a big afternoon in front of goal.
Over 163.5 Total Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Marcus Bontempelli 25+ Disposals: The Bulldogs skipper lines up in his 200th game on Saturday afternoon in stellar form. Bontempelli is averaging 26 disposals per game, including a 31 disposal performance last weekend. Bontempelli has hit the 25+ disposal mark in four of his six games, and hasn’t been held below 23 disposals this season. Bontempelli has recorded 20, 27, 31, 28 and 26 disposals from his last five games against Hawthorn.
Tim English 20+ Disposals: Tim English has established himself as the best ruckman in the competition in 2023, and is getting the job done all over the ground. English is averaging 20 disposals per game this season, and has hit the 20+ mark in five of his six games.
Oskar Baker 15+ Disposals: Oskar Baker has been an unsung hero on the wing for the Bulldogs this season, playing a crucial role after the departure of Lachie Hunter. The former Demon is averaging 16 disposals per game across the last month, and has been a reliable contributor for the Dogs.
Same Game Multi Odds: $4.33
