AFL Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast vs North Melbourne
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, April 23rd, Heritage Bank Stadium
After signing a two year extension last July, Stewart Dew is on the hot seat once again after the Suns gave up a 23 point lead in a ten point defeat against Fremantle. Gold Coast are sixteenth on the ladder with just one win from their opening five games, in what has been a disappointing start to a season they were expected to be contending for a finals berth.
The Suns will welcome back skipper Jarrod Witts who has missed the last two weeks with a back issue, while Levi Casboult and Joel Jeffery have been named in the extended squad.
After starting the season 2-0 North Melbourne have lost three consecutive games, with last week’s 75 point loss to Brisbane a harsh reality check on how far away they are from the best sides in the league. After leading by eighteen points in the first quarter, the Roos conceded nine of the next eleven goals as the Lions kicked seventeen goals after quarter time.
North Melbourne have lost co-captain Jye Simpkin who suffered a broken hand in the loss to Lions, with Aaron Hall, Charlie Lazzaro, Paul Curtis and Miller Bergman included in the extended squad.
Jarrod Witts’ absence was a huge factor for the Suns as Sean Darcy dominated the second half, the Suns midfield have performed well this season, however they haven’t been able to turn their work in the centre of the ground into scoring opportunities.
Suns rank second in the AFL for contested possessions and clearances, however they are fifteenth for inside 50’s and sixteenth in points for. If they can turn their dominance in the middle of the ground into winning the territory battle, North Melbourne are going to find it hard to defend the likes of King, Chol and Casboult.
North Melbourne have also been poor in the territory battle, ranking eighteenth for inside 50’s, seventeenth in points against and fourteenth in points per game. Touk Miller (27 disposals per game), Noah Anderson (25) and Matt Rowell (20) have been in excellent form this season, and will be a key factor in the contest against a young North midfield.
The Suns have won four of their last five games against the Kangaroos, and it’s difficult to see the Roos backline finding a way to contain the Gold Coast forward line given what they displayed last week. North Melbourne conceded 42 scoring shots last week, and have conceded 259 points across their last two games.
North Melbourne’s three game losing streak has come by an average losing margin of 39 points, and their last two games against the Suns have resulted in 67 and 62 point losses.
The Suns midfield will be too strong for the Kangaroos, and with consistent opportunities King, Chol and Casboult will be too much for the Roos to compete with.
Gold Coast -24.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
