AFL Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Essendon
Saturday 4:10pm AEST, April 15th, Adelaide Oval
After a disappointing defeat in Round Two, Melbourne have bounced back with comprehensive victories over Sydney and West Coast, to launch themselves into third place on the ladder. The Demons have a 3-1 record with all three victories coming by margins of above 50 points.
Melbourne’s defence will be missing some key pieces with Jake Lever (ankle) and Michael Hibbard (managed) not selected. The Dees have brought in Ben Brown and Adam Tomlinson, while last week’s sub James Jordan has also been omitted.
Essendon made it harder than what it should have been, in a thirteen point win over GWS that saw the Bombers improve to 3-1. Essendon kicked 11.22, in what should have been a much bigger win given the dominance they had across the game.
Sam Weideman won’t play against his former side after being concussed against the Giants, with Alwyn Davey Jnr (managed) the other exclusion from the Bombers side. Dyson Heppell has been upgraded to the starting 22 after being the sub last week, and Will Snelling makes his first AFL appearance in 2023 after some excellent VFL form.
Heavy rainfall is expected for Adelaide on Saturday afternoon, with some difficult conditions in store for both sides. Melbourne’s intercept marking will be limited, however their big body midfielders in Oliver, Petracca and Viney will be primed to impact in the centre of the ground.
Both midfield units have been excellent this season, ranked 2nd and 3rd in the AFL for disposals. Both sides were also dominant at the coalface in Round Four, with Melbourne recording a +21 contested possession differential, and Essendon winning the contested possession battle by 19.
With no Wright or Weideman for Essendon, and poor conditions expected, it’s tough to see the Bombers kicking a winning score against the strongest defensive outfit in the competition over the past two seasons.
The Dees have had the wood over Essendon, winning five of their past six matches against the Bombers. Melbourne’s defence has strangled Essendon, with the Bombers having failed to kick more than ten goals in all five of those defeats.
The midfield battle will be fascinating, however Melbourne have clear advantages at both ends of the ground that will prove to be the deciding factor in this clash. The Demons defence will be too strong for an experienced Essendon forward line, and the Dees will grind out a comfortable win in the wet.
Melbourne -20.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals: Clayton Oliver has started 2023 in scintillating form averaging 32 disposals per game, with three 30 disposal performances across the first month of the season. Oliver has loved playing against the Bombers, excluding shortened quarters in 2020, his last three games against Essendon has seen returns of 38, 34 and 29 disposals.
Dylan Shiel 25+ Disposals: Dylan Shiel is quietly putting an excellent start to 2023, and has been one of the biggest factors behind the Bombers 3-1 start. Shiel is averaging 25 disposals per game, carrying on from his hot finish to the 2022 season. Shiel recorded 25+ disposals in seven of his last eight games in 2022, and picked up 25 disposals in his last game against Melbourne.
Total Points Under 156.5: As mentioned earlier, the conditions are likely to create a low scoring contest, especially given the low scoring nature of previous contests between these two sides. The last three games between Melbourne and Essendon have had an average total points of 137, with the way the Demons set up defensively the Bombers haven’t found a way to put up a big score against Melbourne.
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