AFL finals contenders Richmond and the Western Bulldogs will face off in a slippery Saturday evening encounter at the MCG.
Both teams have started this campaign in an inconsistent fashion, so it will be interesting to see who brings their A-game in this one.
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AFL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Richmond vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday 4:35pm AEDT, April 8th, MCG
With just one win apiece, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs both need to win on Saturday to keep up with the leading pack.
The Tigers have had a true mixed bag of results, with one win, one draw and one loss, and it is clear to see that they haven’t produced their best footy yet. That’s not to say they haven’t faced tough opposition – games against Carlton and Collingwood are unenviable. Richmond have also struggled for continuity among their playing list so far. The likes of Dustin Martin, Jayden Short and Jacob Hopper have all missed games through injury, while Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin have been managed this week, just three rounds into the campaign. Fortunately, the Tigers still have plenty of quality on the park for this weekend’s blockbuster – Tom Lynch is a perennial threat down forward, Tim Taranto has thrived as a full-time inside midfielder, Liam Baker is relishing an array of roles and Daniel Rioli has really stepped up in defence. Of course, we can’t forget about Shai Bolton, who can win a game off his own boot. Martin and Hopper also return for this game, alongside youngster Tyler Sonsie, so the Tigers will be confident that they can knock off the Dogs.
That being said, it won’t be easy given the Bulldogs return to form last week. The men from the west knocked off flag contenders Brisbane by 14 points to get their first win on the board, with rising forward Jamarra Ugle-Hagan kicking five goals in an inspired performance. After coming under fire, the Bulldogs midfield was also at its best, as Bontempelli, Treloar, Liberatore and Macrae all racked up more than 25 touches each. As a result, the Dogs will enter this encounter unchanged, sticking with a tall forward line for what could be a wet contest. The conditions certainly won’t suit the away side, who do their best work under the roof at Marvel Stadium, but perhaps last week’s performance has kicked them into gear.
Given the history, weather, and venue factors playing into this match, I’m confident that the Tigers will get the job done. Richmond have won their last three matches against the Dogs by an average of 33 points, and the Tigers should be better equipped to deal with potentially slippery conditions. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have lost their last three matches at the MCG, so all the trends are pointing toward a Richmond victory.
Richmond -10.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
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Tim English 15+ Disposals – English has started the season on fire, averaging over 20 disposals per game. Ruckmen tend to lift their output in rain impacted matches, so I think the Bulldogs big man is a pretty safe bet for 15 here.
Toby Nankervis 15+ Disposals– Similar to English, Nankervis should benefit from sub-optimal weather conditions on Saturday. The Richmond ruckman has hit 15+ disposals in two of three games this year, and had 20 touches against the Dogs in 2021.
Under 164.5 Total Points – With 2-8mm of rain forecast for Saturday in Melbourne, goals could be hard to come by if this turns into a sodden slog. The last four matches between these teams have gone under this point line.
Same Game Multi odds - $3.20
