AFL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs GWS
Sunday 2:10pm AEST, April 9th, Marvel Stadium
Essendon were left to rue a horror first quarter, as St Kilda handed the Bombers their first defeat of the season last weekend. Essendon conceded the first five goals of the match, before working their way back to level scores during the fourth quarter, however they’d spent their tickets in the comeback, eventually falling by eighteen points.
GWS hung tough in a ten point loss to Carlton last week, which sees the Giants sitting 1-2 after Round Three. Carlton had ten more scoring shots than the Giants, however the GWS defence did an admirable keeping the game close, but the weight of numbers was too much in the end.
Essendon has regained Brandon Zerk-Thatcher who was sorely missed last week, the young defender was arguably the Bombers most impressive player over the opening fortnight of the season, with Massimo D’Ambrosio being omitted.
The Giants have opted against giving number one draft pick Aaron Cadman his debut after naming him in the extended squad on Thursday. GWS have made two changes with Cooper Hamilton and James Peatling being dropped, while Adam Kennnedy returns to the side. Connor Stone has been upgraded to the starting 22 after being the sub last week.
Essendon’s strength lies in their clearance work, and it is their biggest advantage over GWS. The Bombers rank seventh in the league for clearances, whereas the Giants ranked thirteenth in the AFL. Despite the loss last week, Essendon won the clearance count by fourteen, while the Giants have lost the clearance count in two of their three games this season.
After passing the 100 point mark in Rounds 1 and 2, Essendon’s forward line lacked potency against St Kilda. Jake Stringer, (1 goal, 5 marks), Sam Weideman (0 goals, 5 marks) and Harry Jones (0, goals 4 marks) all failed to make an impact. Stringer will be better for the run, and Weideman was also coming off an injury, however the form of Jones is a major concern for Essendon.
Jones has kicked only one goal this season, and has been subbed off in two of his three games this season. With GWS key defenders Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley in outstanding form, it’s going to be a tough task for Jones to turn around his form.
If the Giants defence competes as they did last week, they will be right in this game given Essendon’s lack of experience. Although the side that will run out on Sunday will be different to previous seasons, the Giants have matched up well against the Bombers.
Although the Bombers come into this clash as favourites, the Giants have won four in a row against Essendon. With the way the Giants have managed to remain in games this season despite their injury issues, a 14.5 line against Essendon is something they can definitely manage if they can turn the game into a scrap.
All three of the Giants games this season have ended in margins under 20 points, and they’re more than capable of keeping this one close against the Bombers, if not winning.
GWS +14.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Darcy Parish 30+ Disposals: Parish has been in electric form to kick off 2023, averaging 34 disposals across the opening three weeks of the season. Parish has hit the 30 disposal mark in all three games this season, and leads the league in clearances and inside 50’s. The Giants have traditionally tagged Zach Merrett, which opens up plenty of opportunities for Parish to continue his hot form.
Will Setterfield 25+ Disposals: As highlighted above, Merrett likely facing a tag creates opportunities for his fellow midfielders to win plenty of the footy. Will Setterfield has had a great start to his Essendon career, averaging 24.7 disposals in the first three rounds of the season. Setterfield has had three of his five highest CBA’s of his career in the opening three games of 2023, and he’s making the most of his opportunities.
Tom Green 25+ Disposals: There was plenty of hype surrounding Tom Green coming into 2023, and the young gun has certainly delivered, as he begins to establish himself as one of the premier midfielders in the competition. Green has recorded 37, 27 and 34 disposal performances so far this season, and is well positioned to continue his red hot form.
Same Game Multi odds - $3.90
