What a world, the Saints and Bombers are both 2-0 heading into a big Round 3 clash at the MCG on Saturday night! Check out our full preview and betting tips for the clash below and remember to head to our AFL Tips page for regular updates throughout the season.
AFL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
AFL St Kilda vs Essendon
MCG, Saturday 1st April, 7.25pm
It will be a big night for the Saints on Saturday night. Not only are they up and about after a 2-0 start, they are celebrating their 150th year anniversary at the MCG in front of what is estimated to be a crowd of around 70 thousand.
The Saints were too good for the Bulldogs on Saturday night, claiming a 51 point win in a dominant defensive performance which saw them allow just five goals. After a fast start for the Saints, the Bulldogs fought their way back into the contest in the 2nd quarter, but St Kilda’s defence went to another level after the main break, allowing just one more goal for the remainder of the game to run away big winners.
The win came with one major setback for the Saints though, as skipper and star midfielder Jack Steele went down with a broken collarbone and is set to miss the next 4-6 weeks. Steele is the latest in a long line of injuries for the Saints, which also includes forward Tim Membrey and Max King along with key players in Jack Billings, Zak Jones, Nick Coffield and Jimmy Webster.
The Bombers have looked electric in the opening two weeks of the season, but have had a pretty cruisy run so far with games against Hawthorn and Gold Coast. They will get their first true test of the season this week at the MCG, but have no doubt already exceeded some expectations. They have been the 2nd highest scoring team in the competition through two weeks, putting up 124 points in the opening week against Hawthorn before 108 in the win over the Suns.
Their midfield has been dominant in both games, with stars Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish playing well along with new recruit Will Setterfield, who is relishing his new midfield role after making the move from Carlton.
The big test for the Bombers here is, will their run and gun style of play hold up against a St Kilda pressure level that has been far and away the best in the league through the opening two weeks? Essendon have relied heavily on uncontested footy throughout their two weeks, ranking 17th in the league for contested possessions so far.
The Saints rank first in the league defensively in opposition score launches, score involvements and overall shots at goal. They have stifled their opponents ability to play on quickly, which I think will have a big impact on the way the Bombers want to play on Saturday night.
HOWEVER, the one thing that could open this game up a little bit is the sheer size of the MCG. The Saints will likely have a tougher time guarding the extra space at the G, so I think there will be slightly more scoring than we have seen in their opening two games at Marvel. Back the overs here.
Over 160.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
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Will Setterfield 25+ Disposals - The Bombers recruit has started the season in hot form, racking up 25 touches in Round 1 before accumulating 28 in the win over the Suns on the weekend. What I love here is that he has seen 82% of centre bounce appearances through the opening two games, ranking 14th in the league and 1st at the Bombers.
Brad Crouch 25+ Disposals - The Saints star midfielder has had 30 and 26 touches in his first two games of the season, so is already a great chance to make it three from three. With Steele out of the line-up, Crouch becomes the No.1 contested ball winner at the Saints, and should see his CBA rise from 71.4 to north of 80%.
Mattaes Philipou 1+ Goal - The rookie has been one of the Saints best players in both of their wins to open the season. He has averaged just 11.5 touches per game but has already kicked four goals and averages 5.5 score involvements per game, one of the leaders in the league when it comes to disposals/SI ratio.
