The Sydney Swans and the Carlton Blues will kick off the AFL action in Round 11 this Friday night from the Sydney Cricket Ground. The AFL couldn’t have scheduled a more desperate match for Friday night with both sides epitomising the definition of “under the pump”.
The winner of this one will breathe a sigh of relief. The loser, well, it’s not going to be pretty.
Check out our Sydney vs Carlton preview and AFL betting tips for the match below!
AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs Carlton
Sydney Cricket Ground, Friday 7:50pm
The Swans will be thankful they have the home ground advantage here as they will want a better performance than what they showed at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne last week against the lowly Kangaroos. The reality is that they should’ve lost that game. They trailed in the dying minutes of the match, only for a bizarre interchange infringement to go against the Roos to hand the Swans the luckiest of lucky victories.
Yes, the Swans have had injury concerns this season, but that’s what happens in AFL footy. Their backline has been depleted and they are sorely missing the McCartin brothers and Dean Rampe to hold them up defensively. The recent injury to Callum Mills was another significant blow.
However there was much talk about how good their young kids were last year, but it’s hard for young guys to maintain form in the early stages of their career. Errol Gulden has gone to a new level, and Hayden McLean has had moments, but some of the others have stagnated a little this season which would be concerning.
Last week it was left to veteran Luke Parker to stand tall and carry the Swans on his ageing shoulders. He needs some support.
The Swans will be truly tested this week by the Blues who are a quality team…at least, on paper. If you look at their side, they should be going much better than their 11th place suggests, but their only win in the last six weeks has been against the pathetic West Coast. The Blues have lost all of the games that they probably needed to win to contend this year. This is their absolute last chance or it’s season over.
Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps are superstars, but they aren’t quite playing at that level at the moment. They arguably have two of the best key forwards in the game but Harry McKay is kicking the Sherrin like a bag of potatoes. Then there’s Jacob Weitering in the heart of their defence. He’s a #1 draft pick with ten years in the game now. He should be impacting the game with his presence more than he does. It’s time for him to stand up.
Around those pillars, the Blues have some good players - Hewett, Kennedy, Cerra, Docherty, Saad, Acres, etc. They have all the pieces but they are just not fitting in the jigsaw puzzle right now. Is that on the hands of Michael Voss as coach or is something else amiss?
The Blues fans have suffered long enough. It’s time for them to play finals, and to do that, they MUST win this one. There’s must-win matches, and then there’s MUST-WIN matches. This is the latter.
The Swans are going to struggle to stop the Blues tall forwards, so as long as they can get the ball forward, then I think they have enough weapons to kick a score to win this one. Expect Ed Curnow to play close attention to one of the Swans mids in an important role.
Sydney were lucky to escape last week, but in reality, they know this season is a write-off. On the other hand, the Blues should be fighting this one out to the death.
Carlton to win
$1.85 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The easiest way to place your Same Game Multi is to click on the BoomBet BetShare banner below! This will add our SGM selections straight into your BoomBet bet slip! You can then enter how much you wish to wager and with one click, your bet has been placed!
Matt Kennedy 20+ Disposals - Matt Kennedy is an underrated footballer. He’s been thrown around a bit in this Carlton side due to their excess of midfielders, but I think he provides a toughness and strong body at the contest, and can also push forward and hit the scoreboard. The 20 disposal line he’s hit in every full match he’s played except one, in both 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Chad Warner 25+ Disposals - I feel that Ed Curnow is most likely to tag Luke Parker. He’s probably the slowest mid to match up on rather than the speedy Chad Warner or Errol Gulden. This should free up Warner somewhat in the middle. Warner has hit 25+ disposals in 7/10 matches this season.
Harry McKay 2+ goals - If Carlton do get control of this game then their tall forwards in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay are going to be hard to stop. You’re going to have Aaron Francis and Nick Blakey playing key positions for the Swans which is not ideal. Curnow is the obvious, so we’re getting a bit better price for McKay to bag a couple of goals this week.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.25
