Saturday night footy takes on far more significance this weekend, with Essendon and Richmond set to do battle in their annual ‘Dreamtime at the G’ contest.
Both teams sit outside the top eight as things stand, so this shapes up as a crucial encounter that could go a long way to defining 2023 for both outfits.
We bring you our preview, best bet and value Same Game Multi below!
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AFL Round 10 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs Richmond
Saturday 7:40pm AEST, May 20th, MCG
Neither Essendon nor Richmond have set the world on fire in the last month, but the Tigers come into this Round 10 encounter as the team to beat.
Essendon overperformed in the opening weeks of the 2023 season, but a combination of injuries and inexperience has brought them back to the pack. It’s now been over a month since the Bombers last won, with that victory coming against Melbourne in Round 5. Since then, the Dons were gallant in defeat over three successive weeks before suffering an inevitable blowout loss to the Lions last weekend. As such, the time is now for Essendon to turn things around. It certainly won’t be easy, while Jordan Ridley returns to the side to sure up the key defensive stocks, the Bombers are still woefully undersized down back without Jayden Laverde and Jake Kelly. Furthermore, the midfield has been decimated with Will Setterfield (foot) joining Darcy Parish (calf) on the sidelines. Both will miss at least a few weeks of footy, so the weight will fall on Zach Merrett’s shoulders to win the ball out of the middle. Down forward, Peter Wright is still at least a month away from returning to the fold… it’s not hard to see why the Bombers are struggling. Nevertheless, sitting at 4-5, all is not lost, and a post-bye surge could be on the cards if the big names can regain their fitness.
Richmond have also had their injury troubles, but the tide is slowly beginning to turn. The Tigers have defeated the Eagles and Cats in the last fortnight and subsequently sit within striking distance of the top eight. It’s been thanks to a mix of old heads and new talent – Tim Taranto, Jayden Short, Daniel Rioli and Liam Baker have stood up as emerging leaders, while young ruckman Samson Ryan has been superb in the absence of Toby Nankervis and Ivan Soldo. In saying that, Nankervis is back in the 22 this week which is a huge boost. Yes, the dynasty may be over, but if I was a Richmond fan, I would be proud that the team is remaining competitive whilst it goes through a transitional period.
Richmond have owned this fixture in recent years, and I expect them to win again on Saturday night. Remarkably, the Tigers have won the last 13 encounters between these two sides, with the last five of those triumphs coming by more than 12 points. Essendon’s midfield is massively depleted for this instalment of Dreamtime, so I expect Richmond to take the ascendency in the middle and as a result they should be able to generate more scores and win this one comfortably.
Richmond -8.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Tim Taranto 30+ Disposals – Taranto has slotted seamlessly into Richmond’s midfield, outperforming his teammates by some margin. The clearance king has registered 30+ disposals in four of his last five outings and he should hit that mark again this weekend.
Zach Merrett 25+ Disposals – Despite some indifferent form over the last few weeks, Merrett should fill the stat sheet on Saturday night. The Essendon skipper should see a boost in CBAs in Setterfield’s absence, and he has hit 25+ in 6/8 games this season.
Samson Ryan 1+ Goals – Ryan has stepped up massively in the absence of Nankervis, taking the bulk of the ruckwork and providing his midfielders with first use of the football. However, with Toby coming back into the team this weekend, I can see Ryan spending more time forward where he is likely to better his average of 1.12 goals per game.
Same Game Multi odds: $3.10
