The 2023 AFL season rolls on as we continue with our in-depth Brownlow Medal coverage. Every game, every round, we'll have Brownlow Medal tips, analysis and information, to make your 2023 Brownlow Medal night a profitable one!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the season, along with our vote allocations using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2023 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
2023 AFL Brownlow Round 12 Overview
Round 12 was the first of the bye rounds in the AFL and it certainly threw up a couple of interesting results that has affected the Brownlow betting market on Betfair.
Nick Daicos has shortened right up again in Brownlow favouritism after another strong game for the Pies. After a quiet month or so, he's polled strongly in the last two games to extend his lead on our Brownlow leaderboard. Marcus Bontempelli is on the drift from second favourite as the Bulldogs star looks to be playing a bit sore. It's likely that a number of players have jumped ahead of him in the count, including Christian Petracca, Zac Butters and Tim Taranto who are all likely to poll well in Round 12. Jordan Dawson, Zach Merrett and Noah Anderson are the other notables to poll in Round 12.
Let's see where our Brownlow votes went for AFL Round 12 action!
2023 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 12 Match Analysis
Melbourne 8.13.61 def Carlton 6.8.44
A scrappy low-scoring Friday night contest to kick off the first of the bye rounds as Melbourne did enough to win. Christian Petracca has enjoyed more midfield time with Clayton Oliver out injured as he was best on ground with 32 disposals, 7 clearances and 1 goal. Ed Langdon (25 disposals) and Jack Viney (20 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) played their roles while Bailey Fritsch (18 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) was lively up forward. Adam Cerra (30 disposals) was best for Carlton on a night where stand out players were hard to find.
Christian Petracca - 3
Bailey Fritsch - 1
Ed Langdon - 1
Adam Cerra - 1
Port Adelaide 23.13.151 def Hawthorn 14.12.96
Port were on fire in the first half before the Hawks added some respectability to the score in the second half. Zak Butters (26 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles, 1 goal) is shortening in Brownlow betting markets, while Connor Rozee (29 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) also ran wild. Up forward it was Jeremy Finlayson (5 goals, 17 disposals, 9 marks) and Todd Marshall (5 goals, 16 disposals, 10 marks) who were virtually unstoppable. Hard to see any Hawks in the votes but Jarman Impey was good with 33 disposals and a goal.
Zak Butters - 2.5
Jeremy Finlayson - 2.5
Connor Rozee - 1
West Coast 8.9.57 def by Collingwood 18.12.120
It was top versus bottom, and it took a while for the Pies to get motoring, but they ended with a comfortable victory. Nick Daicos was at his best with 30 disposals and 3 goals, with support from Tom Mitchell (30 disposals, 13 tackles, 1 goal), while Brody Mihocek (15 disposals, 11 marks, 3 goals) provided a target. Dom Sheed (43 disposals, 9 marks, 10 clearances, 1 goal) didn’t stop running for the Eagles.
Nick Daicos - 3
Dom Sheed - 1.5
Tom Mitchell - 1.5
Western Bulldogs 10.15.75 def by Geelong 15.7.97
The Dogs got a lot of the ball, but the Cats were more efficient as they landed a crucial victory. Tom Stewart (27 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) and Jeremy Cameron (21 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) were best for the Cats, as their young midfield had to contend with the Dogs star-studded mids. Tim English was enormous with 27 disposals, 12 marks and 30 hitouts and could get the 3 Brownlow votes in a losing effort. Caleb Daniel (35 disposals, 1 goal) and Adam Treloar (31 disposals, 11 tackles, 1 goal) were also very good.
Tim English - 2.5
Tom Stewart - 2.5
Caleb Daniel - 1
Gold Coast 16.16.112 def Adelaide 13.9.87
The Suns are making Darwin a fortress as they fought back to defeat the Crows. Noah Anderson was best with 28 disposals, 9 clearances and 2 goals while Jack Lukosius hit the scoreboard with 5 goals from 16 disposals. Jordan Dawson may pick up a vote for his 30 disposals, 6 tackles and 1 goal, while Ben Keays picked up 25 disposals, 10 tackles and 2 goals.
Noah Anderson - 3
Jack Lukosius - 2
Jordan Dawson - 1
GWS Giants 15.14.104 def Richmond 16.14.110
A couple of Sunday thrillers to finish the round as Richmond escaped with a dramatic one-goal victory over the Giants. Tim Taranto was again relentless with 36 disposals, 9 clearances and 1 goal while Jack Riewoldt was back to his best with 5 goals from 15 disposals and 8 marks. The Giants won a ton of ball as usual with Tom Green (35 disposals, 8 clearances), Callan Ward (32 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal), Lachie Ash (33 disposals) and Kieran Briggs (11 disposals, 9 tackles, 30 hitouts, 2 goals) all good contributors.
Tim Taranto - 3
Jack Riewoldt - 2
Tom Green - 1
Essendon 16.9.105 def North Melbourne 15.9.99
The Roos had a chance to pinch another win but let it slip as the Dons move into the top 8. Zach Merrett was sensational with 34 disposals, 11 marks, 6 tackles, 8 clearances and 2 goals. Nic Martin (21 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals), Jye Caldwell (27 disposals, 9 marks), Kyle Langford (14 disposals, 8 marks, 4 goals) and Jordan Ridley (21 disposals, 9 marks) were also very good for the Bombers. Will Phillips stood up following injuries to two key on-ballers to amass 27 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances and a goal for the Roos while Ben McKay (18 disposals, 10 marks) stood tall in defence.
Zach Merrett - 3
Nic Martin - 2
Jordan Ridley - 0.5
Will Phillips - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
