We have an Origin decider! Unfortunately for Blues fans, it is at Suncorp Stadium and their record here in Game 3 fixtures isn’t ideal; they’ve won just twice to clinch the series. The Maroons will be out to bounce back from a 44-12 loss to the Blues in Perth. That performance negated the advantage they achieved with a 16-10 victory in Game 1. The two sides were vastly different from their first meeting and there is no doubt that the Blues have momentum heading into this game.
It has been anything from an easy build up though; both squads have had players omitted from their original squads. If there was ever a time for the Queenslanders to display their famous spirit, this is it with Munster missing from their line-up. This promises to be a great encounter and fans of rugby league are blessed with this fixture. As always, this betting preview will also hope to steer you towards a winner or two to build your account midweek and maybe earn a day off on Thursday.
Queensland vs New South Wales
Wednesday 13th July, Suncorp Stadium, 8:05pm (AEST)
Squads
Queensland
1. Kayln Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Dane Gagai 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Papalii 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Jai Arrow 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Tom Gilbert Reserves: 18. Thomas Flegler 19. Tom Dearden 20. Beau Fermor 21. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 22. Sam Walker
**Munster & Taulagi have been ruled out due to COVID – Corey Oates has been called into the team and Tom Dearden is expected to be elevated to the 17**
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Matt Burton 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Daniel Tupou 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Jordan McLean 9. Api Koroisau 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Cameron Murray 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Damien Cook 15. Angus Crichton 16. Junior Paulo 17. Siosifa Talakai Reserves: 18. Jack Wighton 19. Nicholas Hynes 20. Clinton Gutherson 21. Jacob Saifiti 22. Reece Robson
**McLean has been ruled out due to injury – Jacob Saifiti is expected to start at prop, with Dale Finucane called into the squad**
Match Preview
Queensland had an inherent advantage heading into Game 3 with this being their home game. That was somewhat negated with the withdrawal of Munster a few days ago. Anyone who has watched the first two games of the series (and club games) will know how essential Munster is to the success of a team; his omission has weakened their attacking options and left them without a strong ‘leader’ on the field.
The Blues were crunched into favourites ($1.34 vs $3.30) as a result, with many believing that they will pick up from where they left off in Game 2. It would be foolish to take this narrow-minded approach; as good as they were, the Maroons competed very well in the first half. Fatigue levels were increased for them towards the end of the match and once the Blues gathered momentum, the Maroons could not stop them. The final score flattered the Blues and will undoubtedly serve as motivation for the Maroons.
This game is set to be far closer, and history supports this with 7 out of the past 10 Game 3 matches decided by 6 points or less. The home ground advantage will go a long way to covering for the loss of their playmaker; the Blues have won just 2 Game 3 deciders at this ground, with the last coming back in 2005. It will also be won and lost in the middle; the Blues have looked capable in both games when they play fast and direct, but they went away from their plans in Game 1. In Game 2, they scored majority of their points with this approach.
They will aim to play a fast game and have the players to do so. The Maroons will be able to stop their momentum but, assuming the Blues play to a high level, it will become too much towards the end of the game. It will be a close contest until the last quarter where the Blues should be able to pull away. Take on the line (9.5 points).
New South Wales -9.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
First Try Scorer
In the past 10 year in Game 3 Origin matches, wingers have scored 5 times and centres twice; you are well placed selecting an outside back. The other times, a hooker, five-eight and second rower have crossed first. Queensland players have also dominated, scoring first 8 out of 10 times. As for unit investments, the recommendation is for 1 unit on each.
QLD
Favourite – Cobbo ($13 at Ladbrokes)
Roughie – Holmes ($21 at Ladbrokes)
This was the same selection for Game 2, with the only difference here being the increase in price. The ability of the left edge of Queensland will be impacted without Munster, but they are still a dangerous option. Holmes has a great record too (albeit playing wing); he has scored first in 3 of the past 5 matches. Cobbo is yet to get his first Origin try but he is electric with the ball and in the air.
NSW
Favourite – Too ($8.50 at Ladbrokes)
Roughie – Burton ($14 at Ladbrokes)
The Blues left edge is dynamite and you cannot go wrong picking either of these players. To’o has only crossed once this series and will benefit from having Burton inside him. The Maroons will likely try to shut him down with pressure and this may free up his winger. As for Burton, he is a multi-threat player who scored second in Game 2 (first for the Blues). Expect another strong showing from him.
Man of the Match
This is a market which should be avoided. It is hard to pick and often, you’re investing on the opinion rather than the right winner. Of the past 10 Game 3 fixtures, this award has been dominated by players in the spine (fullback, five-eight, halfback & hooker – or numbers 1, 6, 7 & 9) accounting for 8 out 10 Man of the Match honours. A five-eight has won it 4 times, with the hooker and fullback sharing 2 each. Interestingly, a halfback has not recently been awarded this. The other two positions were lock (Parker 2014) and wing (Tate 2013). If you must have a bet, no more than 0.5 units should be invested.
QLD
Favourite – Cherry-Evans ($8 at Ladbrokes)
Roughie – Grant ($21 at Ladbrokes)
With Munster missing, greater responsibility will fall on the shoulders of the captain, DCE. His kicking game is crucial and if the Maroons are to win, he needs to contribute strongly to his team’s performance. For an outsider, Grant is $21, and he too will be equally as important. His odds are larger given he is expected to share the role with Ben Hunt, but this may change if the Maroons opt to play Hunt in the halves. Either way, Grant is a leading contender.
NSW
Favourite – Cleary ($4 at Ladbrokes)
Roughie – Yeo ($13 at Ladbrokes)
Cleary was given the honours in Game 2 after an impressive display leading his team to victory. He is difficult to go past again, such is his influence on the result. Not only is his kicking game important, but his running/passing game gives his team options also and they will rely heavily on his strong defence. For an outsider, Yeo is decent value as he is expected to play the entire match. He is a crucial link between different attacking shapes and his defence will also be crucial to a Blues victory.
Total Match Points
The average total points in the past 10 Game 3 fixtures is 36.9 points. This is the highest of the 3 fixtures (Game 1 – 28.5 points & Game 2 – 33.6 points). Dry conditions are predicted, and this should assist with an attacking game. The only reason why the total wouldn’t get to the expected level would be if one teams attack wasn’t performing the way it should. There is a medium level of confidence for this investment.
Total Points Over 39.5 ($1.85 at Ladbrokes)
Margin Option
The average margin of victory in the past 10 Game 3 fixtures is 11.3 points but this is skewed by a 46-point blowout in 2015. 7 out of 10 matches have been decided by 6 points or less. The average margin of victory is 12.9 points for the Maroons and 5 points for the Blues. While this game is expected to be tight for majority of the contest, don’t be surprised to see the Blues pull away from their opponents towards the end of this game.
NSW 13+ ($2.35 at Ladbrokes)
