The Final of the Rugby League World Cup will take place this weekend at Old Trafford in Manchester, with 16 teams whittled down to just 2. Most thought at the start of the tournament that the two sides featuring was a possible outcome but to the novice rugby league fan, it would seem surprising that the 4th best team (Australia) in the world is facing off against the 7th best team (Samoa). These two teams have earned their way to this fixture and with World Cup glory so close for their country, they will be doing everything possible to win. This betting preview will be there to guide you along the way so get ready for an exciting game of rugby league.
Rugby League World Cup Final Preview & Betting Tips
Australia vs Samoa
Old Trafford, Sunday 20th November, 3am (AEDT)
Australia won their way through to the Final with a tough 16-14 victory over their rivals, New Zealand. Both sides were up for a tight contest, but it was the Kiwis who struck the first blow with a try in the 10th minutes. The Kangaroos fought their way back into the match but still trailed their opponents 14-10 at HT. A tough second half defensive effort set a strong platform for the Aussies to play from and keeping the Kiwis scoreless in the second half set up victory. The winners were made to work hard for the win; they were the inferior team in completion rate (which was still good – 85% vs 88%), run metres (8.4m vs 8.9m) and post contact metres (580 vs 593). The opportunities they created in attack built pressure (line breaks and tackle breaks) proved the difference.
Samoa faced England for the second time this tournament, desperate to atone for their 60-6 loss in their opening fixture. Upset as favourites in that match, Samoa had a point to prove and it was evident in their play. It was the opposite of the other Semi Final; a tight first half had Samoa leading 10-6, with free-flowing attack dominating the later stages of the match. After HT, each team had greater confidence in their attack, with defence appearing to let themselves down. A 77th minute England try sent the game into Golden Point, where Samoa closed out the match with a well taken field goal. When you look at the stat sheet, this comes as no surprise. They carried the ball for more metres per carry, had more post contact metres, line breaks and tackle breaks. Classified as a tier two nation in rugby league, they are a sleeping giant that has woken up and is ready to take a place alongside the best teams in the world.
The Aussies are overwhelming favourites for this game ($1.10 vs $7) and if Samoa were to cause an upset, it would be one of the great upsets in international rugby league history. The quality which Australia possess across the field will be a major factor in deciding this contest. They are strong from 1-17, with the potential to place relentless pressure on their opponents over 80 minutes. Samoa is a quality team; they played well enough to defeat England, showing toughness, power, and poise. Where England were vulnerable, the Aussies will counter. Away from their best this tournament, the Kangaroos have still put together some quality performances. Their spine is outstanding in controlling matches and if one player isn’t firing, there are suitable replacements who can step up and take control. The roles of Grant and Hunt at hooker are a great example of this.
The line has been set at 18.5 for this game. Had England progressed to this match, it likely would’ve been smaller. While probably accurate, it is underselling what Samoa can achieve. Their best chance of winning this game is to play (very) physical in the middle of the field. It will be hard for them to maintain this intensity for the entire match, but it did wear England down. This game will be another step up for intensity and fatigue. Their opponent’s defence is also better structured; it compliments their attack and is often overlooked. It will ensure their opponents scoring tally stays low. The Australians should be too strong but take the line on at your own risk. The safer option is to increase your stake at a more suitable selection, which will still provide you with a return.
Prop Bets:
Samoa 0-10 points & Australia 21-30 points @ $7 – 1.5 units
Grant & Munster to score (No price at time of writing) – 0.5 units
Australia 13+
$1.48 (4 Units)
