The first of two AFL semi-finals takes place on Friday night with Melbourne hosting Brisbane at the MCG. We preview the match and bring you our best spread and player prop bets right here!
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season including the finals, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Melbourne vs Brisbane Betting Tips
MCG, Friday 9th September, 7:50pm (AEST)
Melbourne
Injuries: James Jordan (2 Weeks), Christian Petracca, Charlie Spargo, Taj Woewodin, Andy Moniz-Wakefield (Test)
Melbourne fans copped a big scare early on in their clash with Sydney when superstar Christian Petracca endured a big hit and could barely walk afterwards. He managed to play out the rest of the game, although scans this week showed that he has a small leg fracture. Despite that, he’s expected to be ready to compete on Friday night.
The Demons were in control of their clash with the Swans up until quarter time and still looked a big chance heading into the fourth quarter despite narrowly trailing. However, the Swans had a lot more run in the legs and when coupled with their superior ball movement, it all proved too much for the reigning premiers. The Demons have to quickly regroup and make the most of home ground advantage this weekend to avoid a straight sets exit in their premiership defence.
Brisbane
Injuries: Marcus Adams, Tom Berry, Carter Michael (Season), Oscar McInerney (TBC)
Brisbane big man Oscar McInerney went down with concussion early in their win over Richmond last weekend. Under new AFL protocols, he will be unable to suit up to take on the Demons. Other than the Big O and key defender Marcus Adams, the Lions don’t have much to complain about on the injury front.
The Lions played their part in one of the best matches of the season when they hosted the Tigers last weekend. It was a see-sawing affair that ended with a Joe Daniher match-winner from the goal square in the dying moments. It certainly wasn’t without controversy, but it was a well-deserved win for the much-maligned Lions nonetheless. In saying all of that, the Lions good work could all be undone this weekend when they travel to the MCG where they have had very little success in recent times.
Match Prediction
While obviously disappointed not to go straight through to a preliminary final, the Demons would be content with the opponent they’ve been forced to lock horns with on Friday night. The reigning premiers have made light work of the Lions in each of their last four meetings, defeating them by an average margin of 44.3 points. They thumped them at the Gabba by 58 points just a couple of weeks ago, and now get a look at them on their home deck in front of a raucous and desperate Melbourne crowd. In my opinion, all signs lead to a big win for the Demons, meaning I’m happy to back them into cover the spread for 3 units.
Melbourne -18.5 Points
$2 (3 Units)
Prop Bets
Despite going down to the Swans last weekend, Bailey Fritsch still managed to hit the scoreboard with three majors. He has a knack of finding the big sticks on the big stage and looks strong value to kick at 3+ goals for the third match in a row.
Bailey Fritsch 3+ Goals ($2.70 at Ladbrokes)
Christian Petracca was reasonably well held last weekend with 24 disposals but had 30+ in each of his three previous finals. I expect him to step it up in a must-win final against the Lions this weekend, making 25+ and 30+ markets good value.
Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals ($1.60 at TAB)
Lachie Neale was phenomenal in his team’s win against the Tigers, collecting 39 disposals to go along with 15 clearances. He now faces the Demons who rarely tag, which will give him the opportunity to go large again.
Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals ($1.75 at TAB)
