We continue our coverage of AFL Round 4 on Sunday where there’s the usual three-game slate on offer. Here, we bring you our best spread and player prop bets for the first match of the day, which will see Essendon host Adelaide at Marvel Stadium.
As always, we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the game and remember to head to our AFL Tips page, where you can catch our coverage of all the Round 4 action.
Essendon vs Adelaide Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Sunday 9th April, 1:10pm (AEDT)
Essendon
Injuries: Nick Cox (Ankle), Aaron Francis (Knee), Michael Hurley (Hip), Harrison Jones (Ankle), Kyle Langford (Hamstring), Zach Merrett (Ankle), Jake Stringer, Tom Cutler (H&S
The Bombers are still without a number of key players due to injury. Michael Hurley, Zach Merrett and Kyle Langford will all be out indefinitely, while Nick Cox is still nursing an ankle injury and Jake Stringer will be unavailable.
It’s been another really poor start to the season for the Bombers who remain one of three sides still without a win. In saying that, they’ve had by far the toughest draw of any team, taking on three of the best sides in the competition in the opening three rounds. Most recently the Bombers lost to the Demons by 29 points, although their performance was a lot better than the result would indicate.
To say it’s important for the Bombers to secure a win this week is an understatement, but the opportunities don’t get much better than this. In preparation, the Bombers have made three changes to this week’s team, although they’ve lost a lot of firepower with Jake Stringer missing yet another game.
Adelaide
Injuries: Paul Seedsman (Concussion)
Injuries are certainly no excuse for the Crows at the moment as only Paul Seedsman is forced to the sidelines. Rory Sloane was in doubt of missing this week but passed a fitness test on a sore adductor.
The Crows looked on their way to an 0-3 start when they trailed late in the Showdown against the Power last weekend, however, a Jordan Dawson goal after the siren saw them cause a huge upset and snap a lengthy losing streak against their fierce rivals. Now at 1-2, the Crows have a chance to get back to even on the ledger against another team that’s struggling mightily.
Clearly lacking a lot of depth compared to most other teams in the competition, the Crows cannot afford injuries and luckily for them they barely have any. Still, they’ve opted to make two unforced changes from last weekend’s win, omitting both Darcy Fogarty and Brayden Cook and bringing in Rory Sloane and Tex Walker.
This week
Match Prediction
The Bombers have had the wood over the Crows in recent years, winning each of their last four meetings. Most recently they destroyed the Crows by 63 points at Marvel Stadium in July last year, keeping the Crows to just two goals for the match.
While form isn’t necessarily on the Bombers side, history certainly is and that should give them a bit of confidence. At 0-3, they simply cannot afford to lose to a team that I and many others expect to finish in the top four. I have the Bombers getting the job done and covering the small spread here for a couple of units.
Essendon Bombers -7.5 (2 UNITS)
$1.90
Prop Bets
Young gun Josh Rachele has had an up and down start to his career, but it’s clear that last season’s #6 pick is full of talent. He showed he can accumulate the footy when he’s given an opportunity in the midfield, racking up 20 touches against the Magpies in Round 2. After a quiet game against the Power, I expect him to get more opportunity around the ball and get 15+ touches.
Josh Rachele 15+ Disposals ($2.30 Ladbrokes)
Jordan Dawson has made a fantastic start to life in Adelaide and automatically became a fan favourite after his goal after the siren to down the Power last weekend. Dawson has become a genuine threat to put it through the big sticks and has kicked at least one goal in six of his last seven games. I see him as great value to kick one again on Sunday.
Jordan Dawson Anytime Goal Kicker ($1.73 Ladbrokes)
Mitch Hinge has been riddled by injuries in previous seasons but looks to have finally gotten his body right in 2022. He’s looked the goods down back for the Crows and has helped them chain out of the backline on plenty of occasions, collecting 16 disposals in each of his last two matches. He’s great value to get at least another 15 this weekend.
Mitchell Hinge 15+ Disposals ($1.92 Ladbrokes)
