We’ve got a blockbuster clash on our hands to kick off AFL Round 21, with Melbourne taking on Collingwood at the MCG on Friday night. As always, we bring you our best spread and player prop bets!
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
Melbourne vs Collingwood Betting Tips
MCG, Friday 5th August, 7:50pm (AEST)
Injuries: Ben Brown, James Harmes, Deakyn Smith (Test), Tom McDonald, Fraser Rosman (Out)
Ben Brown and James Harmes will put their hand up for selection this week providing they pass a fitness test. Tom McDonald is still out for 4-6 weeks according to AFL.com, which probably means we won’t see him again this season.
Melbourne entered their heavyweight clash with the Dockers last weekend having won just three of their past eight games, but you wouldn’t have known it by the way they played. They absolutely strangled the Dockers and made it nearly impossible to transition the ball forward from their defensive 50, which resulted in an impressive 46-point away win. The Demons remain in second spot on the ladder and one games plus percentage ahead of the Lions in fifth.
Injuries: Jeremy Howe, Brody Mihocek (Test), Taylor Adams (TBC), Charlie Dean, Nathan Kreuger, Reef McInnes, Tom Wilson (Out)
Jeremy Howe and Brody Mihocek are both battling with niggling injuries at the moment and face a test to prove their fitness for this weekend. Taylor Adams is the only man in their best 22 who is unavailable for selection.
Collingwood haven’t been the most convincing team this season, but they continue to churn out wins and will enter Round 21 on a massive 10-match win streak. Last weekend they proved too good for a gallant Power outfit at the MCG, defeating them by six points. The Magpies have now won each of their last five matches by seven points or less and eight of their last nine by under two goals. They currently sit third on the ladder and are only behind the Demons in second by percentage.
On the back of their dominant performance against the Dockers last weekend, you get the sense the Demons are now starting to turn the screws and find their best footy ahead of another finals campaign. They may have lost to the Magpies in their Queens Birthday clash earlier in the season, but they conceded an uncharacteristically high score in 82 points that day, including 36 in the last quarter alone. On the flip side, the Magpies have been crying out for a beatdown after just scraping over the line against a ton of bottom half sides in recent weeks. I believe this will be the night they get the reality check they need en route to a big win for the Demons.
$2 (3 Units)
With a big Demons win in mind, I’m keen to play around with some related markets. The Demons have conceded 53.1 points on average over their last seven wins, which tells us that when they’re up and about they’re very hard to score against. I expect another similar total in this one.
Collingwood Under 68.5 Points ($1.90 at Ladbrokes)
Big Maxy Gawn is now back to full fitness and has taken over the bulk of the ruck duties, which means Luke Jackson is spending a lot more time up forward. He’s kicked a goal in five of his last seven outings and is a great value leg to chuck in your multis on Friday night.
Luke Jackson Anytime Goal Scorer ($1.73 at Ladbrokes)
The tall defenders of the Demons are so good that it’s hard to see the Magpies key forwards having much impact in this one. This will leave the mid and small forwards of the Magpies to do most of the heavy lifting and Jamie Elliott certainly fits the bill. He’s kicked multiple goals in three of his last four matches and is still great value.
Jamie Elliott 2+ goals ($2.10 at Ladbrokes)