With their finals hopes sitting on a knife’s edge, St Kilda will take on the developing Hawthorn in a hugely important Round 20 AFL fixture. Catch our best bets for this important match!
The Saints are scrapping for the final position in the top eight, so games like this one against a struggling opponent are simply must-win encounters.
Before the match, be sure to check out these Round 20 AFL betting tips!
Remember, Before You Bet will be previewing every game of the 2022 AFL season, so be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for regular updates.
St Kilda vs Hawthorn Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Saturday 30th July, 4.35pm (AEST)
St Kilda Saints
Injuries: Jade Gresham (out), Jack Billings (out), Nick Coffield, Jack Hayes, Dougal Howard, Daniel McKenzie, Paddy Ryder, Max Heath
Gresham and Billings are huge outs for the Saints as both provide valuable run, carry and precision. On a positive note, midfielder Dan Hannebery is in for his first game of the year after a lengthy layoff.
There is still hope for the Saints after they cruised to a comfortable victory over West Coast last weekend. With four rounds remaining the perennially frustrating team is just outside the top eight on percentage, battling the Western Bulldogs and Richmond for a chance to play in September. It’s going to be an uphill battle though, as St Kilda’s form has really dropped off in the second half of the season. A win against Carlton aside, the Saints have failed dismally against quality opposition and are perhaps the league leaders when it comes to fading in and out of games.
The loss of Billings and Gresham could not have come at a worse time, as the Hawks are a perfect matchup to exploit in midfield, so it will be up to the extractors Jack Steele, Brad Crouch and Seb Ross to get the job done. The form of Max King will also be crucial in the last month of the regular season. He has shown this campaign that he can tear a game apart and kick his team to victory, however pressure on the young key forward will undoubtedly reach a crescendo in coming weeks.
Hawthorn Hawks
Injuries: Ned Reeves (out), Lachlan Bramble, Sam Frost, Tyler Brockman, Connor Downie, Seamus Mitchell, Liam Shiels, Chad Wingard, James Worpel
Ben McEvoy will reclaim the title of #1 ruckman this week in the absence of Reeves, likely with assistance from Jacob Koschitzke who has been brought in for this clash.
The Hawks made it three in a row with a convincing victory over cellar dwellers North Melbourne last week, taking their season tally to seven wins. Most would argue that it has been a successful season for the young side, as it was widely expected that 2022 would be a rough chapter of a long rebuild.
Players across all lines have shown promise and importantly consistency, which young guns to struggle to achieve at AFL level early in their careers. Namely, Josh Ward, Connor McDonald, Finn Maginness, Jai Newcombe and Mitch Lewis will be celebrated for their efforts come the end of the season. At the other end of the scale, the likes of Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Blake Hardwick have toiled hard and performed well despite their aging bodies, a credit to all three. Undoubtedly, some of the credit must be given to coach Sam Mitchell who has driven an entertaining brand of football, while representing the club fantastically in the media.
Match Prediction
I must admit that I hate predicting the result of matches involving St Kilda, as they are just so inconsistent.
If the best version of the Saints shows up, they could win this by 10 goals, however a terrible showing could see them fade out of finals contention.
It is ultimately because of those stakes that I think St Kilda will win. They have beaten the Hawks by 69 points in both 2021 and earlier this year, so history is on their side, and experienced heads across the ground should find a way to get the job done.
St Kilda -6.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
Prop Bets
Crouch has had an incredibly consistent season for the Saints, averaging 104.2 fantasy points. The Hawks are renowned for giving up big scores to opposition midfielders, especially contested bulls… Crouch ticks those boxes. He scored 118 against Hawthorn earlier this year and should avoid the Maginness tag, so back him for 110+.
Brad Crouch 110+ fantasy ($2.40 at Ladbrokes)
Hill has had an up and down 2022 but his best footy has been superb. The dashing runner has had a poor fortnight, but before that he registered 25+ disposals in five of six games. Hawthorn typically give opposition defenders space to gather up touches and Hill loves playing against his old side, so I can see him having a big game this week.
Brad Hill 25+ disposals ($2.85 at Ladbrokes)
