Adelaide Oval, Saturday 30th July, 7:30pm (AEST)
Adelaide
Injuries: Luke Brown, Matt Crouch, Shane McAdam, Andrew McPherson, Paul Seedsman, Rory Sloane
Despite a poor showing against the Swans, Adelaide have made only one change with Josh Worrell replacing Tom Doedee who is out with soreness. Brayden Cook who came on as the medi-sub last week has also been omitted.
Adelaide were blown out of the water by Sydney in an embarrassing first quarter that had the result sewn up at quarter time. Sydney kicked nine goals to two in the first quarter, with the 36 point final margin flattering the Crows as they kicked 10 of the last 16 goals of the game.
After starting the season 3-3 the Crows have gone 2-10 in the following twelve weeks, with their only two wins in that period coming against the worst sides in the AFL, West Coast and North Melbourne. Adelaide are the fourth lowest scoring team in the league, averaging just 76 points per game in 2022 and the third worst defensive team in the AFL, conceding 92 points per game.
Carlton
Injuries: Jordan Boyd, Jack Carroll, David Cunningham, Ed Curnow, George Hewett, Jack Martin, Oscar McDonald, Luke Parks, Sam Philp, Zac Williams, Will Hayes (suspended)
Marc Pittonett makes his long awaited return, creating a restructure to the Blues forward line structure that sees Jack Silvagni omitted from the side. Pittonett hasn’t played since Round 6 and allows Tom De Koning to play forward, giving the Blues three genuine talls inside 50. Matt Owies returns from injury and replaces youngster Josh Honey.
Carlton led at all changes last week against the Giants, however it took until the final quarter for the Blues to break away. The Blues kicked four goals to one in the final quarter to run away 36 point winners and keep themselves within a game of the top four. Carlton’s midfield bounced back from the defeat to Geelong as Patrick Cripps (34 disposals), Sam Walsh (31), Matthew Kennedy (27) and Adam Cerra (27) gave the Blues control in the middle of the ground.
Carlton’s three key forwards are going to cause some serious headaches for a struggling Adelaide backline. Charlie Curnow kicked 6.3 and Harry McKay kicked 3.2 when they faced the Crows earlier this season. With Tom Doedee out Adelaide lacks a third tall defender, meaning Tom De Koning will have a serious height advantage on whoever matches up on him. Doedee is also the Crows best intercept defender, meaning Jordan Butts and Nick Murray will be left isolated on Curnow and McKay.
Match Prediction
It’s difficult to see the Crows avoiding a repeat of the Round 8 meeting against Cartlon, given how much Adelaide have dropped off after a promising start to the year. The Blues had 31 scoring shots that day, and with the Crows having a weaker defence in this clash, it’s hard to see Adelaide keeping a potent Carlton side from kicking a massive score.
Carlton has a big size advantage in the midfield and should be able to dominate the clearance battle. The Blues have won three out of the last four against Adelaide, and despite this fixture being at the Adelaide Oval, things could get ugly for the Crows. Carlton will comfortably cover the -16.5 line, and keep their hopes of a top four finish alive.
Carlton -16.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
Prop Bets
This game sees one of the worst defences in the AFL taking on the sixth highest scoring team in the comp. Adelaide have conceded an average of 92 points per game in 2022, while Carlton have scored an average of 87 points per game. The total points was 184 when these two sides met earlier this season, and the Blues won’t have any trouble hitting the scoreboard on Saturday night.
Total Points Over 162.5, $1.88 with Ladbrokes
Patrick Cripps has cooled off after a dominant start to the season, however his production drastically increases with George Hewett out of the side. In Round 7 Cripps had 35 disposals, 10 clearances & 1 goal. In Round 8 against the Crows he had 35 disposals, 10 clearances & 2 goals. Last week he had 34 disposals, 4 clearances & 1 goal. With Hewett out of the side again and a favourable matchup in the midfield, Cripps is set for a big performance.
Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals, $2.05 with Ladbrokes
With Marc Pittonett back into the Carlton lineup, Tom De Koning will spend the majority of his time up forward and likely be matched up on Josh Worrell who he has a 10cm height advantage on. Curnow and McKay will rightfully draw plenty of attention, which should give De Koning plenty of good looks inside forward 50.
Tom De Koning 2+ Goals, $3.10 with Ladbrokes
