Saturday twilight football sees the Kangaroos host Richmond in their first game after sacking David Noble. Will North Melbourne respond and cause a massive upset? Or will the Tigers keep their spot in the top eight?
Jack Tobin has got you covered with a free preview and be sure to check out our AFL Tips page for coverage on every game in 2022.
North Melbourne vs Richmond Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Saturday 16th July, 4:35pm AEST
North Melbourne
Injuries: Jackson Archer, Miller Bergman, Charlie Comben, Ben Cunnington, Aaron Hall, Will Phillips, Jared Polec, Jaidyn Stephenson, Tristian Xerri
Kayne Turner is set to be available after being in concussion protocols, while Jaidyn Stepehnson is set to miss after being subbed out with a hip complaint. Jason Horne-Francis should be back in the senior side after a 29 disposal outing in the VFL on return from suspension. Tarryn Thomas’ availability is still unknown at this stage, with a potential return on the cards this week.
North Melbourne produced their best performance of the season last weekend, leading by 26 points at three quarter time before being ran over in the fourth quarter in a seven point loss to Collingwood. The performance wasn’t enough to save David Noble who was sacked on Tuesday morning, with VFL coach Leigh Adams promoted to caretaker coach for the rest of the season.
Although the sacking of a coach tends to bring an improvement in results over the following weeks, it’s hard to see a way that Leigh Adams getting anything more out of the side than David Noble. Teams tend to be more aggressive with their ball movement under caretaker coaches with the shackles broken, so the way the Roos move the ball should be a KPI for them.
Richmond
Injuries: Kane Lambert, Tom Lynch, Dustin Martin, Toby Nankervis, Jack Ross, Ivan Soldo, Sydney Stack
It’s been absolute carnage on the injury front over the last two weeks, with Tom Lynch, Toby Nankervis and Ivan Soldo all suffering injuries last week against the Suns. Richmond may not have a recognised ruckman this week, but they’ll likely get Trent Cotchin, Noah Balta and Josh Gibcus back into the side.
Richmond looked to be pushing for a tilt at the top four with seven wins from their last nine games heading into Round 17, however a dramatic loss against the Suns now sees them inside the eight on percentage. The Tigers led Gold Coast by 40 points in the third quarter, and 17 points with four minutes to play, before completely capitulating in the dying stages as Noah Anderson kicked the winner after the siren to give the Suns a two point victory.
The most interesting aspect for Richmond this week will be what they do at the ruck position. Toby Nankervis, although not officially ruled out, looks likely to miss with a knee injury and Ivan Soldo is out with a broken thumb. The only other ruckman on the Tigers list are Samson Ryan who has played only one game in his career, in which he failed to get a disposal, and Mate Colina who is a category B rookie and very much a project player. It’s difficult to see either being selected, which means Noah Balta looms as the most likely to be pushed into the ruck if he returns from injury this week.
Match Prediction
The Tigers will be seething after last week’s loss and despite some key personnel missing, things could get ugly for the Kangaroos in this game. North Melbourne have lost fourteen straight games by an average margin of 59 points, twelve of those fourteen losses have been by over 46 points.
Richmond have won four of the past five meetings between these two sides, and it’s hard to see things changing. The Tigers are playing to keep their spot in the eight and have been ruthless against bottom five teams this season, with a 4-1 record and an average winning margin of 49 points. The Kangaroos played the best they could last week and it’s hard to see them getting off the canvas with the week they’ve had.
Richmond -42.5
$2.00 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Luke Davies-Uniacke has been a bright spark in a horror year for North Melbourne and he produced the best performance of his career last week against Collingwood. Davies-Uniacke is averaging 29 disposals per game over his last four games, and has hit the 30 disposal mark in three of those four games. At $1.73, Davies-Uniacke is outstanding value for 25+ disposals.
Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals, $1.73 with Ladbrokes
If Richmond win this game by as much as they should, Shai Bolton is going to have a field day. Bolton is having a superb season with 31 goals from 16 games, and he hasn’t been held to under 2 goals in his last four games. Bolton kicked 3.3 against the Suns and should generate plenty of scoring shots against the Kangaroos.
Shai Bolton 3+ Goals, $1.98 with Ladbrokes
Before suffering a concussion in Round 15 against Geelong, Dion Prestia was in a red hot patch of form. Prestia had disposal returns 28, 36, 25, 25 and 33 disposals in the five games before his concussion. Prestia had 24 disposals upon his return last weekend, and coming up against the bottom placed side in the AFL, Prestia could be in for a big outing.
Dion Prestia 30+ Disposals, $2.10 with Ladbrokes
