The Saints will take on the Dockers in a massive Saturday night clash from Marvel Stadium in Round 16. Andy Rosos is back with his full preview and betting tips for the game below.
Remember to head to our AFL Tips page for content on every game in Round 17 this weekend.
St Kilda vs Fremantle Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Saturday 9th July, 7.25pm (AEST)
St Kilda
Injuries: Hunter Clark, Dougal Howard, Nick Coffield, Jack Hayes, Mitch Owens (Out) Jarryn Geary, Dan Hannerbery, Daniel McKenzie (Test)
The Saints captured a fantastic win over the Dockers in Round 16 but it didn't come without some setbacks. Hunter Clark suffered a nasty concussion in a collision with Dan Butler and will miss at least one week while Dougal Howard is set to be on the sidelines for up to five weeks with a knee issue.
Daniel McKenzie should come straight back into the side for Clark, while Tom Highmore, Darragh Joyce and Jarrod Lienert could fight it out for the spot created by Howards absence. A couple of veterans in Dan Hannerbery and Jarryn Geary could also finally put their hand up for selection this week after long runs with injury.
The Saints will rue the loss to the Bombers a few weeks ago even more now after the win over the Dockers. They should be firmly entrenched in the eight at the moment but an inconsistent month currently has them on the outside looking in.
Fremantle
Injuries: Jye Amiss, Nathan O'Driscoll (Out) Darcy Tucker, Josh Treacy, Sam Switowski, Heath Chapman, Blake Acres, Matt Taberner (Test)
After leading by 34 points at three quarter time, the Dockers had a slight scare in their Round 16 fixture against the Power. Their opponents kicked the first four goals of the last quarter to cut the margin to just 11 points before a late goal to Lachie Schultz iced the game for teh Dockers.
Key forward Matt Taberner suffered a hamstring injury in the game, an injury that would have severly hindered the Dockers earlier in the season when it came to seelction table meetings for the upcoming game. However, with Nat Fyfe back in the side and Josh Treacy looking ready to return from injury, the Dockers have plenty of cover when it comes to targets up forward.
Match Prediction
The Dockers have lost just four games in 2022 so far. One of those losses came to the Saints back in Round 2 at Optus Stadium. In a defensive tussle, the Saints were able to keep the Dockers to just 55 points in the win, a feat that will be tricky to replicate without Howard in the line-up.
I think the W2W - Any Other Result market here is a great bet at $1.87. The Saints have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league when it comes to form within the four quarters, often getting off to horrendous starts before smashing teams in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. They have won just 7 first quarters this season but are the 2nd best team in the league in 3rd quarters, winning 11 of 15.
W2W - Any Other Result
$1.87 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
Like the overs in this game. A low scoring game back in Round 2 between these two teams has driven the line down a fraction to just 159.5 but I think the Saints and Dockers are much different teams than they were back then. The Saints played an extremely aggressive brand against the Blues last week and I expect them to carry that mindset into this clash.
Over 159.5 ($1.88 at Ladbrokes)
I have been chugging from the Brad Hill well for the past few months and I will continue to do so until the bookies start paying attention. The Saints experimented with Hill as a forward at the start of the season but since Round 10, the speedster has been back to his preferred role off half back and on the wing. In the last five games he has racked up 30, 33, 12, 26 and 27 touches. That one miss came when he was tagged by the Lions at the Gabba, but I think the Saints have been making a concerted effort to get the ball into his hands of late. Back him to have 25+ again.
Hill 25+ Disposals ($2.50 at Ladbrokes)
