It’s here! The final round of the NBL23 regular season! It’s been a season like no other and the best is yet to come.
The highly-anticipated Round 18 includes seven fixtures, all of which have massive finals implications.
Top spot has been sewn up by the Sydney Kings, but the all-important second position is still to be decided with both the Cairns Taipans and New Zealand Breakers eyeing it off.
Meanwhile, the JackJumpers, Wildcats, Phoenix, and United are all still vying for top six spots, and even the 36ers remain a mathematical chance for a finals berth after their heroics in the final game of Round 17.
There’s a lot to play out over the coming week and Jake Smit is here to bring his best NBL tips for all Round 18 games, and if you're looking for a new sportsbook then we recommend Neds for all your NBL betting needs!
NBL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers
Thursday Feb 2, 7:30pm AEDT, WIN Entertainment Centre
The Breakers lost seven of nine games from Round 9-16 and looked to have coughed up any chance of a top two finish and automatic qualification for the playoffs. However, three wins on the spin and a dip in form from the Taipans now puts them back in the box seat.
Due to their far superior percentage, all the Breakers need to do to secure second spot is win their last two games – this one against the Hawks, and the following one against the Bullets. Or, they could only win one of their games and hope for a Taipans loss against the Wildcats on Friday night.
On paper this looks like an easy task for the Breakers considering the Hawks have been glued to the bottom of the standings for almost the entire season, however, they lost to them only a fortnight ago when they were jumped 27-14 in the first frame.
I expect the Breakers to be on high alert from the opening tip this time around given the importance of what a win means for them. With that said, I’ll be backing them in to dominate this game and cover the big spread on the road.
New Zealand Breakers -8.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Adelaide 36ers vs Sydney Kings
Friday Feb 3, 7:30pm AEDT, Adelaide Entertainment Centre
After losing five in a row and six of their last seven, the Adelaide 36ers hopes were all but lost when they travelled to Cairns to take on the Taipans last weekend.
Somehow, someway, the Snakes were able to get the win (99-96) to keep their razor thin hopes alive.
They now take on the defending champs and best overall team in the league this season in the Kings.
The Kings won both of their Round 17 games against fellow title contenders, which ultimately saw them sew up top spot on the ladder.
The Kings, if Chase Buford wants to go down that route, now have the option to freshen up some of their sore bodies and give some additional minutes to rotation players in Round 18.
Regardless of whether or not Buford chooses that path, I expect the intensity of the Kings to be a touch lower this weekend given what they’ve already achieved.
As such, I’m keen to make a small play on the 36ers to cover the spread at home.
Adelaide 36ers
+6.5 $1.90 (1 Unit)
Perth Wildcats vs Cairns Taipans
Friday Feb 3, 9:30pm AEDT, RAC Arena
*Click here for our full preview and betting tips for this game*
Illawarra Hawks vs Tasmania JackJumpers
Saturday Feb 4, 5:30pm AEDT, WIN Entertainment Centre
The Hawks looked on their way to winning just their fourth game of the season when they led the Breakers by 16 points at the half on Thursday night. However, a nine-point third quarter saw them cough up the lead and eventually go down by 10 points.
The Hawks have now lost three games in a row by double-figures and have conceded an average of 100 points during that span.
Meanwhile, the JackJumpers currently occupy fourth spot in the standings and can secure that position with a win on Saturday night.
As long as they don’t lose this game by 40+ points, they’ll be at least finishing in the top six.
The JackJumpers will be eyeing off a strong performance to finish the regular season and to earn home court advantage in their play-in game. With that on the line, I expect them to be winning this by a decent margin.
Tasmania JackJumpers -6.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane Bullets vs New Zealand Breakers
Saturday Feb 4, 8pm AEDT, Nissan Arena
The Bullets will be looking forward to putting this season behind them and will be doing just that on Saturday night when they play their 28th and final game. It’s been a tough season all around for the Bullets and it’ll be interesting to see the moves they make to their roster to bounce back in NBL24.
On the other hand, the Breakers season is only just beginning and they have a fantastic opportunity to lock in a top two spot with a win in this one.
The stakes couldn’t be much higher for the Breakers and you can expect to see their intensity levels at an all-time high as they aim to secure automatic finals qualification.
The line has been set at a hefty 8.5, but they should be able to gobble that up as long as they get off to a reasonable start. With that said, I’m willing to back them in to get the job done for a single unit.
New Zealand Breakers -8.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Melbourne United vs Adelaide 36ers
Sunday Feb 5, 2pm AEDT, John Cain Arena
*Click here for our full preview and betting tips for this game*
Perth Wildcats vs Sydney Kings
Sunday Feb 5, 4pm AEDT, RAC Arena
The Wildcats will know exactly what needs to be done to make the finals at the conclusion of the Melbourne United vs Adelaide 36ers clash.
Prior to Sunday’s double-header getting underway, the Wildcats and United are basically even on both wins and percentage, which means whichever team defeats their opponent by more on Sunday will make the top six.
The Wildcats would be disappointed they’ve put themselves in this position after suffering three losses from their past four games.
However, they now find themselves up against a Kings team that has locked up top spot and is quite clearly prioritising health instead of form in the final round.
The Kings sat Xavier Cooks for their clash with the 36ers on Friday night, and also benched Dejan Vasiljevic in the third quarter when he had 18 points. Derrick Walton Jr. was also side-lined after copping a knock to his wrist, although Coach Chase Buford stated that all three players are in good health.
By his own admission, Buford played some “funky line-ups” against the 36ers and I suspect we will see more of the same on Sunday. For that reason, I have the Wildcats winning this game and covering the small spread.
Perth Wildcats -3.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
