Just three rounds remain in the NBL23 regular season, and the battle for spots in the top six couldn’t be any tighter. There are nine games scheduled for play in Round 16 with action spanning from Wednesday night through to Sunday’s double-header.
Jake Smit brings you his best NBL tips for all nine Round 16 games below! And if you're looking for a new sportsbook that offers fantastic odds and a great range of markets, make sure to check out Betr!
NBL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
Tasmania JackJumpers vs S.E. Melbourne Phoenix
Wednesday Jan 18, 7:30pm AEDT, Silverdome
*Click here for our full preview and betting tips for this game*
New Zealand JackJumpers vs Illawarra Hawks
Thursday Jan 19, 5:30pm AEDT, Spark Arena
Thursday night’s double-header gets underway in New Zealand with what looms as a one-sided affair – at least that’s what the odds suggest.
The Breakers are coming off two losses in a row on their home deck and three in a row overall, all of which came in a disastrous Round 15. As a result, they’re now virtually out of the hunt for a top two finish.
Meanwhile, the Hawks went down once again to their crosstown rivals in the Freeway Series last start. They lost all four games against the Kings this season and they were all by less than 10 points.
This will be just the second meeting between these teams this season and the first in over three months. The Breakers obliterated the Hawks by 26 points back in October despite being the visitors on that occasion.
On their home deck this time and in desperate need of a win to steady things, I’m expecting the Breakers to put their best foot forward and win comfortably against the Hawks.
New Zealand Breakers 11+
$1.94 (2 Units)
Brisbane Bullets vs Adelaide 36ers
Thursday Jan 19, 7:30pm AEDT, Nissan Arena
Second up on Thursday it will be the Bullets hosting the 36ers in Brisbane. The visitors will be eyeing off a 3-0 series sweep after winning both games in Adelaide last month.
Unfortunately for the 36ers, wins in 2023 have been hard to come by to date. They’ve saluted just once in four outings and have lost four of their last five overall.
Likewise, it’s been a tough stretch for the Bullets, although they tasted rare success last start on the road against the Phoenix in a massive upset. The Bullets had lost four straight games by double-figure margins heading into that match.
The horror run the 36ers are on has just about put them out of finals contention unless they can win-out from this point, starting with a victory at Nissan Arena.
With their season on the line, I’m expecting the 36ers to be the desperate team in this matchup and to cover the small spread.
Adelaide 36ers -4.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Cairns Taipans vs Tasmania JackJumpers
Friday Jan 20, 7:30pm AEDT, Cairns Convention Centre
The first game of Friday night’s epic double-header will see the Taipans start favourites at home against the JackJumpers.
The Taipans reeled off six straight wins without their superstar Keanu Pinder, and he’s set to return for Round 16 in what will be another big boost for the Snakes.
Impressively, the Snakes were able to win on the road against the Breakers last start and that victory puts them right in the box seat for a top two finish and automatic playoff qualification.
In contrast, the JackJumpers have slipped up a couple more times than they’d like in recent weeks. They’ve split their last six games at 3-3 and lost a tough one against the Phoenix to kick off Round 16.
At home and now back to full strength, it’s hard not to like the chances of the Snakes making it 3/3 against the JackJumpers. I expect them to get the job done and cover the spread.
Cairns Taipans -5.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Perth Wildcats vs Sydney Kings
Friday Jan 20, 9:30pm AEDT, RAC Arena
*Click here for our full preview and betting tips for this game*
Illawarra Hawks vs Brisbane Bullets
Saturday Jan 21, 5:30pm AEDT, WIN Entertainment Centre
The Hawks finally managed to snap their losing streak at 11 with a huge upset in New Zealand to kick off Round 16.
They were without a win on the road for the entire NBL23 season prior to their triumph against the Breakers, and it all came down to a go-ahead three-point basket in dying seconds from Tyler Harvey.
Similarly, the Bullets managed to snap their five-game slide in Round 15 with an unlikely win on the road against the Phoenix. They also backed it up with a thrilling overtime victory at home against the 36ers on Thursday night.
This is the only matchup that has zero finals implications, so it’s fair to say it’s a game that you wouldn’t want to invest too much capital in. With that said, the Bullets are the classier outfit and have dominated the Hawks in both meetings this campaign. I give them the slight edge again here.
Brisbane Bullets
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United
Saturday Jan 21, 8pm AEDT, Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Adelaide’s horror run of form continued on Thursday night when they were defeated at home by a Bullets outfit with nothing to play for. They’ve now lost four on the spin and can kiss any finals hopes they had goodbye.
In complete contrast, Melbourne United are absolutely storming towards the finish line and have made a pipedream of securing a play-in birth a genuine chance.
As it stands, United are sitting in seventh spot on the table and percentage out of the top six, but you certainly wouldn’t bet against them forcing themselves into a play-in spot on current form.
United have won four on the spin and seven of their last eight games, and five of those wins have been by double-figure margins. They have no issue performing on the road and under these circumstances I have them winning as one of the best bets of the season to date.
Melbourne United
$1.95 (4 Units)
S.E. Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats
Sunday Jan 22, 2pm AEDT, State Basketball Centre
What a game we have on our hands here between two teams vying for seeding in the playoff race.
After losing a shocker at home to Brisbane to make it five losses in a row, Phoenix were able to bounce back with an invaluable loss at the Nest against the JackJumpers last start.
Keeping their opponents to only 75 points was their best defensive mark since Round 10 and they’ll need more of the same if they’re going to continue to struggle shooting the ball like they have in recent outings.
On the flip side, the Wildcats upset the Kings in a thrilling 111-104 win to begin Round 16, making it three wins on the spin. However, the Wildcats now hit the road where they’ve lost three of their last four.
The series is split at 1-1 after both teams won once at RAC Arena in 2022, and now the Phoenix will get their chance to play hosts.
The Phoenix will be riding high after their huge win over the JackJumpers and will be keen to take advantage of the Wildcats struggle on the road in recent weeks. I give them the slight edge in a tough contest to predict.
S.E. Melbourne Phoenix
$1.84 (1 Unit)
Sydney Kings vs New Zealand Breakers
Sunday Jan 22, 4pm AEDT, Qudos Bank Arena
*Click here for our full preview and betting tips for this game*
