The twilight clash on Saturday in Round 6 of the AFL sees the Blues face off against the Lions from 4.35pm! PuntingInDanger is back on deck with a full preview and betting tips for the clash form Marvel Stadium below.
AFL Carlton vs Brisbane Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Saturday April 24th 4.35pm (AEST)
The Lions are coming off a big win against the Bombers which saw them move to 2-3 on the season and stay in the hunt for the top eight. The Blues snapped their two game winning streak with a loss to the Power on the weekend and will be desperate to bounce back.
Brisbane was in a hole at 1-3, staring down the barrel of a massive fightback just to contend for a top eight spot. They played like a very hungry team against Essendon in Round 5, claiming a 57 point win in extremely slick conditions at the Gabba. They will be back on the road this week where they are yet to win a game, having lost games in Geelong and Marvel Stadium already this season.
It was super surprising to see the Blues start at almost even money against the Power in Round 5. Sure, they were on a two game winning streak but those wins only came over Fremantle and Gold Coast. Backing Port seemed the safe money and it turned out to be that way as they recorded a very comfortable 28 point win at Marvel Stadium.
Carlton are still pretty ravaged on the injury front but there is at least a little good news coming this week. Nic Newman, tom De Koning and Luke Parks are just a week away from a return while Charlie Curnow, Zac Fisher, Caleb Marchbank, Jack Martin, Oscar McDonald and Jack Silvagni will all be out for extended periods. The Lions are a little more settled on the injury front, with only Cam Rayner, Connor McFadyen and Noah Answerth set to be missing from their potential best 22 this week.
Once again, I’m pretty surprised at how close the bookies have this game, with the Lions starting as just 5.5 point favourites at most outlets. That two game winning streak seems to still be having an effect on the bookmakers, despite losing their other three games to Richmond, Collingwood and Port Adelaide by an average margin of 24.6 points.
Carlton might be improving in terms of their competitiveness, but they just don’t have the runs on the board to be considered against a Lions team that found some real form in Round 5. Their injury list is also a massive issue for me, back the Lions to win against the Blues as they have done in 7 of their last 9 meetings.
Lions -5.5 (1.5 Units)
Sam Walsh has been a standout for the Blues so far this season, averaging exactly 30.0 touches per game through his five games. When he last faced the Lions, the midfielder had 31 touches in shortened quarters, his only 30+ disposal game of the pandemic effected season. The year before in 2019, Walsh had 32 touches in his first game against Brisbane. He is yet to have under 30 touches in a game against the Lions, and is good value to continue that streak on Saturday.
Charlie Cameron has had a pretty quiet start to the season, kicking just five goals through five games so far. He has still booted 2+ goals in two of his games and the price tag of him to do so sits at a healthy $2.40 this weekend. I expect this one to be a pretty high scoring game at Marvel Stadium so there should be ample opportunity for Cameron to hit the scoreboard.