The Thursday night clash in Round 5 had the makings of a bit of a snooze-fest a few weeks ago when the Saints were in a hole, however, their play on Saturday against the Eagles has breathed life back into this contest, which will kick off the round’s action from 7.20pm at Marvel Stadium
We finished Round 4 another 3.59 units in profit giving us a running total of 14.97 units in the black for the year. PuntingInDanger is back with another preview and betting tips for the clash between St Kilda and Richmond on Thursday night and remember to head to our AFL Betting Tips page for previews for every game in Round 5 and beyond.
AFL St Kilda vs Richmond Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Thursday 15th April 7.20pm (AEST)
The annual ‘Maddie’s Match’ will take place on Thursday night, which will pay tribute to the sister of Nick Reiwoldt and as usual, raise important funds to raise awareness and fight Aplastic Anaemia. The Saints and Tigers have been extremely competitive duels over the past few seasons and this one is shaping up to be a cracker Thursday night clash.
Match Prediction
We were probably about five minutes away from calling the Saints season done and dusted on the weekend. Halfway through the third quarter, they trailed the West Coast Eagles by 33 points in a game where a loss would have seen them move to 1-3 on the season. With games against Richmond and Port Adelaide to come over the next two weeks, you could all but write St Kilda off. However, the Saints rallied at Marvel Stadium, going on a unprecedented 54-1 run in the last quarter and a half to run out 20 point winners.
The Tigers had the tough task of travelling to Adelaide to take on the Power in Round 4 and failed to get the job done. They were extremely competitive but ultimately the Power were two points winners on the back of a clutch Robbie Gray goal late in the fourth quarter.
The Saints captured a brilliant win but it wasn’t without it’s setbacks. One of the main catalysts in their resurgence was the return of ruckman Rowan Marshall, however, the big man snapped his plantar fascia in the win and will be touch and go to play this week. St Kilda will also be without Jarryn Geary, Jade Gresham, Dan Hannebery and Ben Paton who are all facing extended periods on the sidelines while Paddy Ryder still looks to be another week away.
The Tigers are looking much more settled on the injury front. Nick Vlaustin, Dion Prestia and Ivan Soldo remain on the sidelines but Kamdyn McIntosh could make his return this week. Either way, the Tigers should have a competitive outfit take the field this week.
The potential absence of Rowan Marshall is massive for the Saints. When he went out in the 2nd quarter, the Eagles gained control of the game and piled on easy goals, when the ruckman came back in the third, the game turned back in favour of the Saints. His presence and marking capability when sitting a kick behind the play is so important to the Saints structure and allows the smalls up the ground to play an aggressive style of pressure football with the security blanket of Marshall behind them. If he is in the side, I think the Saints can win here.
Either way the Saints are 14.5 point underdogs here, which I think hovers around the same mark if Marshall plays but goes to 20+ if he is ruled out. Either way I like them to cover 14.5 in what should be a pretty high pressure game.
Saints +14.5 (1.5 Units)
$1.90
Saints Prop
How electric has Jack Steele been so far this season. The midfielder got his first All Australian nod last year and has backed it up with a brilliant start to the year, racking up 27.8 disposals per game and 35 and 33 in his last two. In shortened quarters against the Tigers in the semi-final last season, the midfielder racked up 25 touches and was one of the Saints best players. Thrives on going H2H with the best players in the league and will likely get a matchup with Dustin Martin on Thursday night. Back him to have 30+.
Tigers Prop
Kane Lambert spent a bit more time forward in Round 5 against the Power, getting on the scoreboard for the first time this season with two goals. Can’t really find much value at all in the Richmond player props but Lambert to kick 2+ at $4.20 or him to kick 1+ at $1.62 as a same game multi leg are a couple I fancy.
