Round 3 of the AFL season continues on Saturday with a fantastic three game slate. The action gets underway at 1.45pm with the Tigers hosting the Swans from the MCG in an interesting top of the table clash. Check out our full preview and betting tips for the game below and remember to head to our AFL Betting Tips page for previews for every game in Round 3 and beyond.
MCG, Saturday 3rd April 1.45pm (AEDT)
The Tigers and Swans are two of five undefeated teams remaining in the AFL and they will square off from the home of football on Saturday afternoon, both looking to keep their perfect seasons intact.
The Swans have been the surprise packet of the season so far, winning their opening games against the Lions in Brisbane before defeating the Crows at home in Round 2. Their young players have been the standouts in their wins, led by the likes of Errol Gulden, Braeden Campbell and Logan McDonald. They will get no doubt their toughest test when they meet a Tigers side that looks to be every bit the team that won their third premiership in four years last season.
The Tigers opened their season with a convincing win over the Blues and were even better in Round 2 against the Hawks. They ran out 29 point winners against Hawthorn at the MCG, and unsurprisingly, this will be their third straight game at the home of footy. Dustin Martin has looked like a man on a mission through the opening rounds, racking up best on ground performances in both games.
On the injury and suspension front, the Tigers are looking really solid. They will only be without Callum Coleman-Jones, Sydney Stack and Ivan Soldo of their potential best 22. As for the Swans, they were dealt a bit of a blow through the week with the news that Lance Franklin is out of the clash. They will also be without James Rowbottom, Ben Ronke and Sam Naismith, who are all battling knee injuries.
The bookies have the Tigers favoured by as many as 27.5 points at some outlets here and personally I think that is a little high. The Swans have long been known as a really strong defensive team but its been their attacking play that has been the catalyst to their success this season. They have put up 121 and 125 points in their two wins and although the Tigers have won their last three against the Swans, the average margin has been just 18.6 points.
The Tigers absolutely dominated the the entire game against the Hawks last week and still only came away with a 29 point win. I think the Swans put up a spirited performance at the G on Saturday and cover what is a pretty large spread.
Dustin Martin has been hitting the scoreboard with regularity throughout the season so far, botting two goals in the season opener against the Blues before adding another goal against the Hawks last week. He has booted four goals in his last two games against the Swans and is decent value to kick another two on Saturday afternoon.
Jake Lloyd has been one of the premier disposal accumulators in the league for the better part of five years now. In the last two seasons with full length quarters, the defender has averaged 27.78 and 30.77 disposals across the span of the season. He has, however, had a quieter start to the 2021 season, racking up just 24 touches in Round 1 and 26 in Round 2. I think this is a direct result of the Swans playing a much more aggressive style of play and not chipping it around the back half as much. Lloyd is paying $1.83 to have 30 touches, which means when his disposal line is released on Saturday it will likely be 30.5 or 31.5. I like the under with either of them.
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