Essendon will host the Crows in the Friday night fixture in Round 17 of the AFL season. As always, PuntingInDanger is back on deck to take a look at the game in full and give his betting predictions below.
Remember to check out our AFL Tips page for our preview and predictions on every game across Round 17.
AFL Essendon vs Adelaide Betting Tips
Marvel Stadium, Friday 9th July 7.50pm (AEST)
Both teams sit outside the eight but with a win here, could insert themselves back into the conversation, particularly the Bombers, who sit six points clear of the eighth placed GWS Giants.
Match Prediction
The Bombers had the difficult task of travelling to Geelong in Round 16 and while they fought hard for the majority of the game, ultimately, the Cats ran over the top of them in the final quarter to finish 41-point winners. The brilliant form of Darcy Parish continued for the Bombers as the midfielder racked up a game high 43 disposals and a goal in the loss.
The Bombers have a pretty solid looking injury list at the moment, one that could look even better in the coming weeks as midfield duo Dylan Shiel and Andrew McGrath are nearing returns. They will be without those two for Friday night though, as well as Michael Hurley, Jye Caldwell, Aaron Francis and Irving Mosquito.
It’s do or die for the Crows now, who have lost their last two games after a miraculous Round 14 win against the Saints gave their season a glimmer of hope. They have gone down in back to back weeks to Carlton and Brisbane and unfortunately the road doesn’t get much easier for them with games against West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Melbourne in the run home. It’s extremely unlikely that the Crows make a last ditch push at the finals, but if they do, it has to start with a win over the Bombers.
The Crows don’t have a lot of players on their injury list, but unfortunately, the players that are listed are important ones. Midfielder Matt Crouch is yet to play this season and will now likely be put on ice for the remainder of the year. Daniel Talia remains on the sidelines and Taylor Walker anxiously awaits a decision from medical staff on whether he will be cleared to play this week after suffering a neck injury in the loss to Brisbane.
The Bombers start as pretty heavy 22.5-point favourites here, which seems about right given the two teams form at the moment and the fact that Taylor Walker is still listed as questionable to play. I am finding it a little difficult to pick who covers that line, but I do really fancy the overs here.
The total sits at 161.5 points and if we throw out their Round 8 meeting in shortened quarters last season, the last nine games between these two sides have hit the over. Unbelievably, those nine games have a total point average of a monster 203.4 points per game.
Over 161.5 (1.5 Units)
$1.90
Same Game Multi
Parish has been on an absolute tear this season, averaging 32.1 disposals through 15 games. He has surpassed 35 touches in seven of his last eight games and is great value to do so again on Friday night.
To pair with the $1.91 value of Parish, we are taking two short priced legs to get us over the important $2.00 barrier. Both Zach Merrett and Rory Laird have passed the 25 disposal mark in every game they have played this season.
Parish 35+ Disp.
Merrett 25+ Disp.
Laird 25+ Disp.
ESS vs ADL Same Game Multi
$2.50
