The 2021 AFL season is in full swing! The action continues on Saturday with a massive four game slate getting underway at 1.45pm with the Melbourne Demons taking on the Fremantle Dockers. As usual, our AFL expert PuntingInDanger has a full preview and betting tips for the clash below.
Remember, you can check out our preview and tips for every game in Round 1 and beyond of the AFL season, just be sure to head to our AFL Betting Tips page for regular updates.
AFL Round 1 Melbourne vs Fremantle Betting Tips
MCG, Saturday March 20th 1.45pm (AEDT)
The Demons barely missed out on playing finals footy last season and after making some big moves in the off-season, they’ll be keen to get back into the action in September this year. Fremantle showed glimpses of brilliance in 2020 but ultimately couldn’t stack up against the best. Saturday afternoon should be an interesting clash between two sides pushing to make the eight.
Match Prediction
Melbourne has had one of the most talented teams on paper for the better part of three seasons now but they have failed to convert that into any sort of success. They added more talent this off-season by acquiring the services of North Melbourne tall Ben Brown to bolster their forward line. The Dees lost a bit in the way of Mitch Hannan and Braydon Preuss, but should ultimately be a better side than they were last season.
The Dockers didn’t have a busy off-season at all. They had a couple of key departures in the likes of Jesse Hogan and Brandon Matera, but their only additions came through the draft so they will have a very similar team to the one that lined up last season.
Both teams have a considerable injury list in Round 1. The Demons will be without Ben Brown, Jack Viney, Sam Weideman and Jake Melksham.
Michael Hibberd and Angus Brayshaw will need to pass fitness tests to play. The Dockers will be missing Michael Walters, Bailey Banfield and Mitch Crowden and a host of players are currently listed as ‘to be assessed’.
The Demons start as pretty strong favourites at home but I am actually leaning the other way here. The two sides squared off just once last season and the Dockers claimed a pretty comfortable 14 point win at Cazaly’s Stadium in Cairns. The Dockers are 23-16 against the Demons over the course of their short history and have lost just three of their last 12 games against them regardless of venue.
This game is much more even than the 12.5 point line in favour of the Demons suggests so I’m happy to take the value here.
Fremantle H2H (1 Unit)
$2.59
Demons Prop
Predictably, Ed Langdon took a bit of a downturn in total possessions last season with the shortened quarters but if he finds anything close to the form that he showed in 2019, then the $1.91 on offer for him to get 25+ disposals is good value.
In 2019, coincidentally playing for the Dockers, Langdon racked up 25+ touches in his first seven games of the season and 14 of 22 total games. He averaged 25.0 touches per game that season and with quarters going back to full length this year, we think he’ll be back to his accumulating best.
Langdon 25+ Disposals
$1.91
Dockers Prop
With Jesse Hogan departing for the Giants nad Rory Lobb and Michael Walters both potentially out with injury for this clash, the Dockers will need extra help in the forward line if they want to stay competitive.
We could see Nat Fyfe spending more time in the forward line on Saturday afternoon. The two time Brownlow Medalist kicked 2+ goals on four occasions last time we played with full length quarters and at $2.40 we think he is good value to do so again.
