2021 AFL Grand Final: Player Prop Bets

September 24th 2021, 5:56pm, By: SmitsTips

AFL Grand Final Betting Tips

We continue our coverage of the AFL Grand Final here with some more great bets to jump on ahead of Saturday night’s clash between Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. In this article we bring you our favourite player prop bets that should land you some extra pocket money.

Also, if you haven’t already checked out our other AFL Grand Final article, then make sure you do so via the link to find our best bets for the result, Norm Smith Medal and more!

TAB AFL

AFL Grand Final Player Prop Bets

Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs

Optus Stadium, Saturday 25th September, 7.15pm (AEST)

We’ve scoured the markets at all the major betting agencies to find you the best value for our player prop bets. Eventually, we’ve landed on two goal scorer markets, a disposal market and even a fantasy points market, so let’s get stuck into it!

Player Goals

We tipped the ‘overs’ in the total points market in our other article, which obviously means we’re expecting a few goals in this year’s Grand Final. For the first of our two player goals bets we’re backing in Melbourne’s best small forward in Kysaiah Pickett to kick two or more goals. Kozzy has had a breakout season in 2021 with 40 goals from 24 matches, which is a fantastic return for someone who’s rarely a target going inside 50. He’s only gone goalless three times this season and has hit peak form at the right time with 19 goals from his last nine matches, kicking 2+ on seven occasions. Getting better than $3 for 2+ goals looks a real steal and we certainly wouldn’t talk you out of having something on him to kick 3+ at $9 odds considering he’s done it twice from his last three games.

Due to reasons mentioned above we’re more than happy to be on a couple of player goal markets on Saturday night. For the second of our prop bets we’ll be taking Bulldogs half forward flanker Bailey Smith to kick 2+ Goals. Smith wasn’t a big goal scorer during the home and away season but has come to life in the finals with eight goals in their three matches, which leads all players in the AFL during the finals this year. Smith was the hero in the Bulldogs narrow win over the Lions in the semi-finals with three late goals and backed up his efforts with a four-goal haul in their dominant win over the Power in the prelims. You can get nearly $5 for Smith to kick multiple odds again this weekend, which is fantastic value on current form.

Player Disposals

There are plenty of player disposal markets in play for this clash between two teams that love to rack up a lot of possessions. Interestingly, in the two matches between these clubs this season there have been 13 Bulldogs players collect 25+ disposals, compared to only four Demons. One player that stood out after going back through both of their meetings was Bulldogs wingmen Lachie Hunter. Hunter, who’s been a prolific disposal getter for a number of years now, had 27 disposals in their first meeting with the Demons (Round 8) and 26 disposals in their second clash (Round 19). Providing this weekend’s match follows a similar script to the first two, getting around $3 for Hunter to have another 25+ disposal outing looks to be great value. 

AFL Fantasy Points

Now for one of the more obscure markets you can bet on for the Grand Final – AFL Fantasy Points! It didn’t take us long to find some value in the 110+ Fantasy Points market at Ladbrokes after doing some research on the two meetings between these clubs this season. In their Round 8 clash Marcus Bontempelli had 30 disposals and eight tackles on his way to 120 fantasy points, while in their Round 19 clash the Bont had 31 disposals, two goals and six tackles on his way to 123 fantasy points. The Bulldogs skipper averaged 121.5 points in their two matches against the Demons and 107.9 across his 25 games this season and is excellent value to record 110+ points this weekend.

Same Game Multi

We’ve brought you plenty of juicy Same Game Multis this season and are hoping to go out with a bang with our 5-legger in the Grand Final. 

For the first three legs of our SGM we’ll be including watered down versions of some of the bets we’ve taken above, by including both Kysaiah Pickett and Bailey Smith to kick a goal at any time and Lachie Hunter to collect 20+ Disposals.

For the fourth leg we’ll be locking in Demons superstar Christian Petracca to rack up 25 or more disposals. He’s been in dominant form all season and has had 26+ touches in 12 of his last 13 games, including 30 and 32 in their two finals.

Finally, we’ll be including Bulldogs accumulator Jackson Macrae to have 30+ disposals. Macrae was second in the competition for disposals this season with an average of 34.2 per game and has had 30+ in 23 of his last 25 games. On top of that, Macrae had 36 and 38 disposals against the Demons this season.

- Kysaiah Pickett Any Time Goal Scorer

- Bailey Smith Any Time Goal Scorer

- Lachie Hunter 20+ Disposals

- Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals 

- Jackson Macrae 30+ Disposals

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