2021 AFL Brownlow Medal: Team Voting

September 14th 2021, 11:34am, By: Brownlow Bandit

Brownlow Medal Team Voting

The Brownlow Team Votes markets are one of the first to be released across the major sports betting sites, and there's some early value around for sharp punters. Here's all the information you need for those betting markets. Don't get sucked into paying touts for Brownlow packages or tips. All the best Brownlow information you need is right here on Before You Bet for free!

We also have the following free resources to help you with your Brownlow betting:

2021 Brownlow Leaderboard

Analysis and vote projections for every match of every round

Brownlow Round Voting and Count Overview

Betfair

2021 AFL Brownlow Team Voting

Adelaide

Team Votes: 48.5
Players polling: Up to 7

An easy team leaderboard to start with as we look at Adelaide. Rory Laird is clearly the winner here with double the next best in Ben Keays. Most betting markets will be without Laird, so you’ll want to look for odds about Keays to beat Taylor Walker. At the moment, the best price is $1.90 at TAB. We have Tex polling nine votes in the first three rounds, but then only a small chance for a vote in one other game. Compare that to Keays, who may poll in as many as seven matches, so as long as he catches the umpire's attention, he should poll well enough to cover Tex.

Rory Laird - 20
Ben Keays - 10
Taylor Walker - 9.5
Paul Seedsman - 3
Lachie Sholl - 3

Brisbane

Team Votes: 77.5
Players polling: Up to 14

We were super keen on Hugh McLuggage at big odds when he was one of the Brownlow leaders after Round 10. Unfortunately he only polled in one other game after that point, but we still have him narrowly winning a tight race at Brisbane. In what should be a good betting market, we have McLuggage narrowly ahead of Jarryd Lyons and Dayne Zorko. The books are heavily favourites towards Lyons, so there's some value on McLuggage or Dorko if you want to take a speculative bet.

Hugh McLuggage - 18.5
Jarryd Lyons - 16
Dayne Zorko - 15.5
Lachie Neale - 6
Zac Bailey - 4

AFL Hugh McLuggage

Carlton

Team Votes: 50.5
Players polling: Up to 9

The Blues used to be a race in two, but now Sam Walsh has taken over from Patrick Cripps as Carlton’s best player. Markets will be without Walsh, which makes it a close market between Harry McKay, Ed Curnow and Cripps. It’s tough to split them, but with McKay winning the Coleman, he seems more likely to pinch an extra random vote or two than the other two.

Sam Walsh - 27
Harry McKay - 6
Ed Curnow - 5.5
Patrick Cripps - 5
Sam Docherty - 2

Collingwood

Team Votes: 54.5
Players polling: Up to 12

Jordan De Goey finally delivered on his potential this season and should poll very well as an eye-catching, dynamic player. Taylor Adams looks the only threat, but keen on JDG as our best bet of the Brownlow team voting.

Jordan De Goey - 14
Taylor Adams - 11.5
Brodie Grundy - 7
Scott Pendlebury - 5.5
Darcy Moore - 3.5

Jordan De Goey

Essendon

Team Votes: 76.5
Players polling: Up to 12

The Bombers will be a showdown between Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett. We favour Parish but Merrett is a ball magnet and likely to also poll very well. Stringer is clearly next best. Hard to find much value here.

Darcy Parish - 26
Zach Merrett - 22.5
Jake Stringer - 9.5
Nick Hind - 4
Andrew McGrath - 3.5

Fremantle

Team Votes: 59
Players polling: Up to 12

David Mundy will burst out of the blocks in the first six rounds and should poll very enough to easily win Freo without too many problems. Andrew Brayshaw should poll well, while young gun Caleb Serong finishes the season strongly - watch for him in 2022!

David Mundy - 15.5
Andrew Brayshaw - 11.5

Caleb Serong - 8
Nat Fyfe - 7
Sean Darcy - 6

Geelong

Team Votes: 80.5
Players polling: Up to 15

Cam Guthrie will clearly win Geelong, but take him out of the market and it’s a coinflip between Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood and it’s impossible for us to split them.

Cam Guthrie - 19.5
Patrick Dangerfield - 8
Joel Selwood - 8
Sam Menegola - 6.5
Tom Stewart - 6.5

Gold Coast

Team Votes: 50
Players polling: Up to 11

Touk Miller had a phenomenal season and will be miles in front at Gold Coast. Noah Anderson and Brandon Ellis are hard to separate if you take Miller out of the market. If you like Ellis, you'll find some value on him in the early betting markets.

Touk Miller - 25
Noah Anderson - 7
Brandon Ellis - 6.5
Jack Lukosius - 3
Hugh Greenwood - 2

GWS

Team Votes: 65
Players polling: Up to 12

This is one of the more closely contested team markets with Josh Kelly and Tim Taranto both polling well, despite missing chunks of games. Taranto moved forward late in the season, so it will be interesting to see if he can still poll well when he hit the scoreboard rather than heavy possessions. Slight lean to the consistency of Kelly. Toby Greene is next best for us and always attracts votes when he plays well. Interestingly, the sports books have Jacob Hopper in contention, but we don't!

Josh Kelly - 17
Tim Taranto - 16
Toby Greene - 8.5

Callan Ward - 5.5
Lachie Whitfield - 5

Josh Kelly

Hawthorn

Team Votes: 54
Players polling: 12

Tom Mitchell was back to his best this season and should poll very well on Brownlow night. Probably the best roughie in the field as he can attract votes when you don’t expect it for his heavy disposals games. He’ll easily win Hawthorn with Jaegar O’Meara and Chad Wingard closely matched without Mitchell in the market. Some small value on Wingard.

Tom Mitchell - 27
Jaegar O'Meara - 7.5
Chad Wingard - 7.5
Daniel Howe - 3
Jonathan Ceglar - 2

Melbourne

Team Votes: 95.5
Players polling: Up to 15

As the top team in the league, Melbourne will poll a heap of votes with a projected total of 95.5 votes which is the most of any team, narrowly ahead of Port Adelaide. Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca are both expected to be contenders, but ultimately they will take votes from each other and probably deny either the chance to win. We have Oliver slightly ahead in the head-to-head, with big Maxy back in third.

Clayton Oliver - 28.5
Christian Petracca - 26.5
Max Gawn - 11.5
Tom McDonald - 8.5
Bailey Fritsch - 6

TAB Brownlow

North Melbourne

Team Votes: 39.5
Players polling: Up to 10

Despite missing large chunks of the season, Ben Cunnington is projected to lead North Melbourne, narrowly ahead of Jy Simpkin. Aaron Hall is the one who could surprise if he overpolls for his flashy, but ultimately soft, possession accumulation across half-back. The projected total of 39.5 votes for the Roos is the lowest of all teams.

Ben Cunnington - 11.5
Jy Simpkin - 10
Aaron Hall - 5
Jaidyn Stephenson - 4.5
Nick Larkey - 3

Port Adelaide

Team Votes: 95
Players polling: Up to 15

Lots of votes at Port Adelaide with Ollie Wines our projected Brownlow winner and Travis Boak not far behind. Karl Amon is clearly the next best, while Aliir Aliir finished the season strongly.

Ollie Wines - 34
Travis Boak - 23.5
Karl Amon - 10.5
Aliir Aliir - 5.5
Zak Butters - 4

Richmond

Team Votes: 47
Players polling: Up to 13

Despite not polling since Round 12, Dustin Martin should easily win at Richmond. Not many others can say they had a good season, but Jack Riewoldt had a couple of good games that might be enough to take second for the Tigers.

Dustin Martin - 13
Jack Riewoldt - 7
Trent Cotchin - 5
Jack Graham - 5
Tom Lynch - 4

St.Kilda

Team Votes: 72
Players polling: Up to 13

Jack Steele is a comfortable winner at St.Kilda after carrying the Saints on his shoulders all season and he has a genuine chance of going all the way. Luke Dunstan, Zak Jones and Brad Crouch are going to be the next best in the market.

Jack Steele - 30.5
Luke Dunstan - 7.5
Zak Jones - 6
Brad Crouch - 5
Max King - 4

Jack Steele

Sydney

Team Votes: 82
Players polling: Up to 17

Sydney will pose one of the more interesting Brownlow team votes markets with Callum Mills narrowly ahead of Luke Parker. Lance Franklin and Isaac Heeney had flashes of brilliance that should attract big votes in select games. Some value in the early price on Mills, but don't go too far as Parker and Franklin can overpoll.

Callum Mills - 15.5
Luke Parker - 14
Lance Franklin - 9
Isaac Heeney - 8.5
Jordan Dawson - 6

West Coast

Team Votes: 58
Players polling: Up to 12

Traditionally, West Coast are one of the harder teams to pick as a lot of their midfield stars are very even so votes could be hard to dissect. We have Dom Sheed a couple of votes clear, and he was probably the midfielder who was least disadvantaged by injury during the season. Tim Kelly and Andrew Gaff are next best but no confidence at all here.

Dom Sheed - 11
Tim Kelly - 9
Andrew Gaff - 8.5
Nic Naitanui - 5.5
Jack Redden - 5.5

Western Bulldogs

Team Votes: 83
Players polling: Up to 13

Marcus Bontempelli will be one of the favourites to win the Brownlow, and so he’ll win the Bulldogs, with Jack Macrae the next best. After that, it’s hard to separate some of their midfield brigade.

Marcus Bontempelli - 29
Jack Macrae - 13.5
Adam Treloar - 6
Bailey Smith - 5.5
Tom Liberatore - 5.5

 
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