Week 3 of the 2019 AFL Finals kicks off on Friday night with a blockbuster clash between Richmond and Geelong. First bounce will be at approximately 7:50pm at the MCG.
We’re providing multiple tips for both Preliminary Finals this weekend. We’ll be kicking things off with our best head-to-head play, then we’ll follow up with a couple of prop bets that we believe are also great value.
Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page regularly to find all our other AFL related betting tips throughout the finals series!
AFL Finals Week 3 Betting Tips
Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats
Friday, 7:50pm AEST, MCG
It doesn’t get much bigger than this! Two of the biggest clubs in the country going head-to-head for a spot in the Grand Final. Who will make the most of this opportunity?
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers were super impressive in their qualifying final win over the Lions, which of course awarded them a week off to rest up ahead of this week’s preliminary final. Now back to nearly full strength, the Tigers are at short odds to win their second flag in three seasons. One concern of course will be whether they’ve had too much time off now that they’ve only played one match in three weeks, which could see them start off a little rusty on Friday night.
Geelong Cats
The Cats avoided a straight set exit with their win over the Eagles last weekend, proving a lot of doubters wrong in the process. Captain Joel Selwood was superb with 26 touches and a goal in a best on ground performance, and Cam Guthrie (33 disposals, eight clearances) wasn’t too far behind. The Cats now look to snap a streak of three-consecutive preliminary final losses when they face the Tigers on Friday night.
History
Geelong leads Richmond 46-17 in the head-to-head count since 1980, although Richmond have won three of the last four meetings.
Last five meetings:
2017 R21 – Geelong (80) defeated Richmond (66)
2017 QF – Geelong (40) lost to Richmond (91)
2018 R13 – Geelong (65) lost to Richmond (83)
2018 R20 – Richmond (85) defeated Geelong (82)
2019 R12 – Richmond (37) lost to Geelong (104)
Prediction
The task was already difficult for the Cats and now that Hawkins is out, it’s near on impossible. The Tigers are the form team of the competition and despite what Chris Scott said about them this week, we believe they’re in as good of form as they’ve been in for quite some time. We have them winning this comfortably.
Richmond Tigers -18.5
$1.90
Goalscorer Market
One of the great value plays this weekend looks to be in the goalscorer market on Friday night. Tom Lynch has had a fantastic first season with the Tigers and will be a key figure again in the preliminary final and perhaps the grand final if they make it. Lynch was kept quiet in each of his last two matches with three goals combined but was matched up against an All-Australian full back in Harris Andrews. Now with a better match-up on the cards, we expect Lynch to return to the goalscoring form that we saw from him in Rounds 15-22 where he kicked 3+ goals in seven of his eight matches.
Disposal Markets
This may seem like a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to his huge performance last weekend, but rest assured there’s some research behind this play. Cam Guthrie had 33 disposals along with eight clearances last weekend and was a constant figure at midfield stoppages all game long. After a performance like that, there’s just no way Chris Scott can lower his midfield time. We’ve seen over the course of his career, that when Guthrie gets the opportunity to ball hunt, then he’s more than capable of accumulating. Look at the first four matches he played this year; Guthrie played big midfield time and amassed 22, 21, 25, and 21 disposals. His line of 20.5 on Friday night seems like one he should eclipse.
Cam Guthrie Over 20.5 Disposals
$1.88
He let us down in a big way last weekend, but we’re prepared to forgive and forget. Dangerfield was held to a quiet 18 disposals by Elliot Yeo, who has turned into one of the great two-way midfielders in the competition. However, Danger gets a chance to bounce back on Friday night when he comes up against a Tigers outfit that rarely ever tags. Prior to last weekend’s quiet match, Dangerfield had amassed 32+ disposals in four straight outings. Moreover, he had a season-high 38 disposals against the Tigers in Round 12 and 39 disposals in his previous encounter with them in 2018. Even odds to get 30+ seems like great value, as does the $4 you can get for 35+ if you’re keen on having a decent swing.
Patrick Dangerfield 30+ Disposals
$2.00
Same Game Multi
If you’re looking for a low spend + big return type of play, then Sportsbet’s Same Game Multi’s are always a great option. We’re pretty happy with ours on Friday night, which is as follows:
Leg 1 – Richmond Win ($1.35)
Leg 2 – Tom Lynch 2+ Goals ($1.30)
Leg 3 – Guthrie 20+ Disposals (1.67)
Leg 4 – Dangerfield 30+ Disposals ($2)
