Week 3 of the 2019 AFL Finals continues on Saturday afternoon with a huge preliminary final fixture between Collingwood and GWS. First bounce will be at approximately 4:35pm at the MCG.
We’re providing multiple tips for both Preliminary Finals this weekend. We’ll be kicking things off with our best head-to-head play, then we’ll follow up with a couple of prop bets that we believe are also great value.
Make sure you check out our AFL Tips Page regularly to find all our other AFL related betting tips throughout the finals series!
AFL Finals Week 3 Betting Tips
Collingwood Magpies vs GWS Giants
Saturday, 4:35pm AEST, MCG
Stakes couldn’t be much higher than this, two fantastic teams playing in front of a packed house at the MCG for a spot in the Grand Final! It should be a great match and excellent viewing for the neutral fan.
Collingwood Magpies
The Magpies did enough in the home and away season to earn a double chance in the final’s series, but that wasn’t needed as they won their qualifying final with the Cats, earning themselves a home preliminary final in the process. Collingwood are now in a fantastic position to push for their first flag since 2010 and improve on their runner-up finish last year. A couple of Magpies are hitting their straps at the pointy end of the season, namely Jamie Elliott who has kicked 10 goals in his last three games. He won’t have to do as much heavy lifting with Ben Reid back in the side, but we still expect him to hit the scoreboard.
GWS Giants
The Giants had another injury-riddled home and away season and it hasn’t gotten much better in the final’s with star winger Lachie Whitfield the latest to succumb to injury/illness. Further, Toby Greene has been ruled out with suspension, which makes this an extremely difficult task for the Giants. However, they have shown some fantastic form in the finals so far, defeating a rampaging Bulldogs outfit in week one before knocking off the Lions at the Gabba in week two. Now, they’ll face their toughest test yet when they take on the Magpies in front of a hostile crowd at the MCG.
History
Collingwood lead the head-to-head series 6-3 against the Giants since their inception in 2012. However, the Giants have been victorious in three of their last four meetings, including their Round 18 fixture this season.
Last five meetings:
2019 R18 – GWS (122) defeated Collingwood (75)
2018 SF – Collingwood (69) defeated GWS (59)
2018 R2 – Collingwood (79) lost to GWS (95)
2017 R8 – GWS (102) defeated Collingwood (99)
2016 R16 – GWS (93) lost to Collingwood (125)
Prediction
The Giants have too many players of great quality out for this clash and we just don’t see how they can compete with the Magpies as a result. Collingwood have extreme motivation levels after that heartbreaking Grand Final loss in 2018 and will get another crack at a premiership this year. We have the Magpies winning this pretty comfortably.
Collingwood Magpies -21.5
$1.91
Goalscorer Market
We touched on his great form above and we’re keen to put our money where our mouth is. Jamie Elliott has kicked 5, 3 and 2 goals in his past three fixtures and has had a total 17 scoring shots too. He’s effectively been playing as a small full forward for the Magpies and while Ben Reid will come in and play there this week, we believe this could actually help Elliott’s productivity even more. Elliott is clearly the Magpies most dangerous forward when he’s on song and we believe he will get a ton of opportunities to hit the scoreboard on Saturday, especially if the Magpies get a comfortable lead.
Jamie Elliott 3+ Goals
$3.60
Disposal Markets
We’re all over the Brodie Grundy markets this week and you should be too. He comes up against a very sore bodied Shane Mumford who we’re actually surprised is playing. Mumford was dominated by Stef Martin last weekend and had the turning circle of a semi-truck. The Magpies were dominated by the Giants in their only meeting this year, but it certainly wasn’t Grundy’s fault. He went off for 31 touches and 181 fantasy points in probably the most dominant performance of his career. Now fresh from a week off, we have Grundy absolutely tearing up the GWS ruck unit.
Brodie Grundy 25+ Disposals
$3.00
There aren’t too many Giants markets that we’re keen on this weekend, but one that we are interested in is Tim Taranto to accumulate 30+ disposals. 21-year-old Taranto has had a superb year in the midfield, averaging over 27 disposals a game and regularly featuring among their best players. With all the injuries/suspensions to Giants midfielders at the moment, we believe Taranto will be one of the beneficiaries and will find plenty of the ball.
Tim Taranto 30+ Disposals
$2.20
Same Game Multi
If you’re looking for a low spend + big return type of play, then Sportsbet’s Same Game Multi’s are always a great option. Our Saturday multi is as follows:
Leg 1 – Collingwood -21.5 ($1.90)
Leg 2 – Jamie Elliott 2+ Goals ($1.83)
Leg 3 – Brodie Grundy 20+ Disposals ($1.57)
Leg 4 – Tim Taranto 25+ Disposals ($1.33)
