The Unibet Premier League of Darts returns for Week 7 of the 2018 season. It's been one of the closest seasons in recent memory and there are many possibilities that could unravel over the next three weeks leading up to Judgement Night. There's a few players who need to start putting points on the board, otherwise the pressure is going to turn on them to avoid relegation. It means that this week's matches are vital for their chances.
After a tricky night last week, we've found a few higher-confidence bets for this week. Let's take a look at our Premier League Week 7 betting tips!
Michael Smith vs Peter Wright
What a cracking match to start with and an important match for both players. Michael Smith suffered his first defeat last week, unable to hold his form against Rob Cross in a 7-5 defeat. Smith was the better player early on, and probably should've gone on to win, but he was unusually poor on tops which allowed Cross to hit his straps and steal the win. Smith has been mentally stronger than that this season, so it was a disappointing loss. Another loss here will see him undo his good start to the season as he’ll be back fighting in the pack.
It’s also an important match for “Snakebite” Peter Wright. Last week he was sitting in fourth spot, and having already played the best three players in the world earlier in the season, it was expected that Wright would be able to hold that spot. However a terrible 7-1 loss to Mensur Suljovic has sent Wright crashing to 8th place and on the edge of relegation with just one victory in the first five weeks. It’s not where Wright was expected to be and another loss here will put his entire season in trouble.
A lot of pressure on this match, and I find it hard to see Wright letting it slip given its importance. However if Smith turns up, it could be close, which turns me off jumping into the price of Wright. Instead, I really like the unders on an average of 97.5 for Smith. He’s only cleared that once this season, and if the pressure is on here, I can see some nervy moments at doubles which will cripple his average.
TIP: Michael Smith average under 97.5 vs Peter Wright - $1.83 at Sportsbet
Simon Whitlock vs Daryl Gurney
The “Wizard” Simon Whitlock is coming back down to Earth after his perfect start to the season, with two losses on the trot. Last week, he was no match for Michael van Gerwen and he will see this as a more winnable prospect against Daryl Gurney. Whitlock’s scoring just hasn’t been good enough this season. He needs to be throwing more tons to give himself more opportunities to checkout.
The form of Daryl Gurney seems to be trending the other way, with a strong match against Gary Anderson last week to secure a draw in a match that he probably should’ve won. It’s been the story of the Premier League for Gurney who is still winless but has three draws and several matches that he probably should’ve won. Again his form seems the opposite to Whitlock, in that Gurney has been scoring well but really struggling with his checkouts. He was just 6 from 21 last week to keep with his lowly 28% season average.
Gurney is playing a stronger overall game. He must take his checkouts and stay tough, but he has won his last six clashes with Whitlock so I fancy him to get his first Premier League victory here. I’d also lean to the unders for averages for both players here. The line of 95.5 for Whitlock and 97.5 for Gurney are both above their season averages and I don’t see either player blowing this away. A couple of typically sloppy legs and they will struggle to cover.
TIP: Daryl Gurney to win - $2.00 at Ladbrokes
TIP: Simon Whitlock average under 95.5 vs Daryl Gurney - $1.73 at Sportsbet
Mensur Suljovic vs Rob Cross
A huge effort from Mensur Suljovic last week saw him smash Peter Wright in a 7-1 demolition job. Wright didn’t play well, but Suljovic had 27 ton-plus visits in eight legs and backed that up with 7 from 13 on checkouts to average a healthy 103.01. That’s some world-class darts. His checkout percentage of 46.43% is now the best in the league, and his season average of 101.32 is second only to MVG. If he can bring that each week then he’s going to be tough to beat in the Premier League.
Rob Cross has been up and down throughout the Premier League but has now strung together three wins in a row to find himself in the top four, despite having lost more legs this season than he has won. He really was slow to start last week against Michael Smith, and had a couple of sloppy legs, but Smith failed to take advantage and Cross worked his way back into the game. The last few legs were the darts that we now expect from Cross but he is struggling for consistency.
I think this game can go the distance, and I think at the prices, Suljovic looks the value, but I can’t bring myself to bet so I think we’ll have to sit this one out.
TIP: No Bet
Gerwyn Price vs Michael van Gerwen
There haven't been too many disappointments in the Premier League this season, but perhaps the performance of Gerwyn Price has been one. Many thought he would have the game and the composure on the big stage to rattle a few feathers this season, but so far, he has struggled. His average of 91.60 is the worst in the league and he really hasn’t been able to score heavily enough to give himself chances to beat the top players. It was a very winnable game last week against Barney but Price just couldn’t get the job done, losing 7-5. If he can't win that, then I can’t see him finding too many more points this season and relegation seems certain now.
It doesn’t get any better for Price as he comes up against the #1 in the world in Michael van Gerwen. MVG is back on top of the table and it looks unlikely he’ll give up that spot given the troubles of the other contenders this season. MVG rolled past Simon Whitlock last week in a comfortable 7-4 win and a repeat of that again should see another victory.
Similar to last week, we’ll try to get some extra value on an MVG win by bundling with the most 180s. We’ll also take on the average line of Price which he hasn’t got close to all season.
TIP: Michael van Gerwen win + Most 180s - $1.73 at Unibet
TIP: Gerwyn Price average under 95.5 - $1.73 at Sportsbet
Raymond van Barneveld vs Gary Anderson
The final game of the week will see old foes Raymond van Barneveld and Gary Anderson collide. The loser of this match could very well find themselves in the relegation zone at the end of the week, and considering Barney has matches against MVG, Wright and Smith over the next three weeks, if he loses here, he could be in a world of trouble.
As we have been saying for weeks, Barney has looked lethargic and disinterested, but somehow he found a few moments of magic with some big checkouts to scrape out a narrow victory against Gerwyn Price. I doubt that performance would've beaten anyone else in the league, so Barney is really going to have to lift here against Anderson to challenge for some points. He’ll certainly need to rattle the treble bed more than he has been. He might find a bit of extra motivation against an elite opponent, but it’s hard to tip him against anyone right now.
On the other hand Gary Anderson has gone from strength to strength in recent weeks. He landed the double by winning both Players Championships events over the weekend, including whitewash victories against Rob Cross and Peter Wright, and that followed up his UK Open triumph the week before. That's super impressive form! Despite only one win in the Premier League this season, I really like Anderson’s chances of running over the top of Barney. You could consider the -2.5 handicap, but instead we’ll again add in the 180s market to get some more value on Anderson for the win.
I’m also going to suggest a play on Barney to be relegated. It will require some other favourable results, but with a loss here and a tough run over the next three weeks, I think the price is overs. I think it will be between Barney and Gurney for the second relegation spot, and if Gurney beats Whitlock tonight, they’ll be level on points with Gurney having the better run home. Worth a nibble.
TIP: Gary Anderson win + Most 180s - $2.40 at Unibet
TIP: Raymond van Barneveld to be relegated - $5.50 at Sportsbet
