Once again Before You Bet is back with our rolling Brownlow Medal Tracker for the 2018 season. We’ll be providing comments for every game of the season, along with our vote predictions to help with your projections for the 2018 AFL season.
Our Brownlow predictions are one of the most popular aspects of the site with punters able to scoop huge profits using the information found in these pages. You’ll be able to stay up to date with our current Top 20 2018 Brownlow Medal leaderboard, while there will be links to every single round-by-round voting posted there.
In case you missed it, you can catch up with our 2018 Brownlow Round 1 votes here.
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can form a 'range' for each player (ie a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great incentives for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips, and of course, check out our 2018 Brownlow Round 2 Vote Predictions below!
2018 Brownlow Medal Predicted Votes – Round 2
Adelaide 18.10.118 def Richmond 12.10.82
Really difficult game to predict votes with lots of excellent performances. Dusty Martin was huge with 25 touches and 5 goals, but it was in a losing effort so he may miss out on the top votes. Rory Laird was arguably the Crows’ best with 42 possessions, while Rory Sloane was crucial collecting 25 touches and 2 goals while hobbling for most of the game, especially after the early injury to Matt Crouch left their midfield vulnerable. Josh Jenkins was a great target with 5 goals, while Bryce Gibbs and Cameron Ellis-Yolmen, both with 28 touches, could pinch a vote.
Rory Laird – 2.5
Dustin Martin – 2.5
Josh Jenkins – 0.5
Rory Sloane – 0.5
North Melbourne 13.17.95 def St.Kilda 5.13.43
An ugly Good Friday game saw the Roos get an upset win. The class of Shaun Higgins (24 touches) shone through but it was big Ben Brown who was the difference with 6 goals. Jarrad Waite presented well with 24 touches, 13 marks and a goal, while Billy Hartung (24 disposals, 1 goal) was also good. Jimmy Webster (30 disposals) was best for the Saints.
Ben Brown – 3
Shaun Higgins – 1
Jarrad Waite - 1
Jimmy Webster - 1
Carlton 9.13.67 def by Gold Coast 15.11.101
Tom Lynch was a dominant force at Etihad with 8 goals from 21 touches in a clear best-on-ground performance. Jarryd Lyons picked up 36 possessions and a goal, while Jarrod Witts dominated the ruck contests. Ed Curnow, with 38 disposals and ten tackles, is also likely to be amongst the votes.
Tom Lynch - 3
Jarryd Lyons – 2
Ed Curnow - 1
Collingwood 12.7.79 def by GWS 15.5.95
A tough win for GWS against the plucky Pies. Stephen Coniglio was a standout with 27 touches and 3 goals for the Giants, but he was well supported by Lachie Whitfield (26 disposals, 13 marks, 1 goal) and Josh Kelly (19 disposals, 15 tackles). Tom Phillips racked up 32 disposals and a goal for the Pies, while Brodie Grundy was the best big man on the ground with 45 hitouts, 20 possessions and two goals.
We now have Coniglio on a perfect six votes to start the season and he's still being offered at $56 at some sportsbooks. Definitely worth a nibble at that price at this early stage.
Stephen Coniglio - 3
Brodie Grundy - 2
Lachie Whitfield - 1
Brisbane 10.1474 def by Melbourne 14.16.100
Another game in which the forwards were the best on ground with Jesse Hogan back to his best with 22 disposals, 9 marks and five goals. Clayton Oliver was outstanding in the contests with 35 touches, while Nathan Jones (28 disposals, 2 goals) and Jeff Garlett (17 disposals, 4 goals) were also very good. Charlie Cameron was the most dangerous Lion with 16 touches and 3 goals.
Jesse Hogan – 3
Clayton Oliver – 2
Charlie Cameron – 0.5
Jeff Garlett – 0.5
Fremantle 16.10.106 def Essendon 14.6.90
This will be a difficult game to pick with a lot of contributors fighting for the votes. It’s likely that Nat Fyfe will get the three with 29 touches and a goal. Walters (26 touches, 1 goal), Blakely (30 touches), Neale (28 touches), Wilson (23 disposals, 11 marks), Taberner (16 touches, 10 hitouts, 4 goals) and Stephen Hill (26 touches, 1 goal) were all strong. Devon Smith with 20 disposals, 13 tackles and a goal was best for the Bombers.
Nat Fyfe - 3
Nathan Wilson - 2
Stephen Hill - 0.5
Connor Blakely – 0.5
Western Bulldogs 9.16.70 def by West Cost 18.13.121
A dismal effort by the Dogs with Jack Macrae (31 disposals, 3 goals) the exception. The Eagles were well led by Shannon Hurn (29 disposals, 10 marks), with Jack Darling (16 touches, 11 marks, 4 goals) proving too big up forward. Nic Naitanui (8 disposals, 33 hitouts) and Scott Lycett (15 disposals, 21 hitouts, 2 goals) controlled things in the air.
Shannon Hurn – 2.5
Jack Macrae – 2.5
Scott Lycett – 0.5
Jack Darling – 0.5
Sydney 10.11.71 def by Port Adelaide 14.10.94
A big away win for Port with Ollie Wines leading the way with 35 disposals and a goal. Robbie Gray returned to the side with 26 touches, 10 tackles and a goal, while Charlie Dixon had a big presence as a make-shift ruckman with 17 disposals and 32 hitouts. Josh Kennedy was best for the Swans with 33 touches, while Buddy Franklin worked hard for 4 goals.
Ollie Wines - 3
Robbie Gray - 2
Charlie Dixon - 1
Geelong 18.9.117 def by Hawthorn 17.16.118
A sensational one-point win for the Hawks on Easter Monday saw Tom Mitchell again dominant with 40 touches and two goals while Ben McEvoy controlled the ruck with 43 hit outs, 16 disposals and a goal. For the Cats, Dangerfield (31 disposals, 2 goals) and Ablett (35 disposals, 1 goal) tried to will the Cats over the line but just couldn’t quite get the job done.
We have Mitchell winning 6 votes in the first two rounds, so it’s worth considering an early play on the Brownlow price freeze markets at CrownBet and Sportsbet.
Tom Mitchell – 3
Ben McEvoy – 2
Patrick Dangerfield – 0.5
Gary Ablett – 0.5
