Just two rounds to go in the AFL and the race for the finals is really starting to heat up. Five teams are still fighting for the final two spots in the top eight, with one of them set to kick off Round 22 in the Essendon Bombers. The Bombers have a tough task this Friday night as they face the Richmond Tigers from the MCG. See our preview and tips for the round opener here.
AFL Round 22 Richmond vs Essendon Betting Tips
Essendon will need to win both of their remaining games to have a chance at making the top eight. They face off against Richmond this Friday night before another Friday night clash against Port Adelaide in the final round of the season. They are, however, one of the most in form teams in the competition at the moment, having won seven of their last 10 games, however, a loss to the Hawks two weeks ago made the equation tough for the Bombers.
The Tigers currently sit on top of the AFL ladder but shouldn’t be taking it easy in the run home as they are just four points clear of the trailing West Coast Eagles. A top two finish would ensure that the Tigers remain at the MCG throughout the finals, however, the prospect of dropping to second and facing off against the red hot GWS in the first round is not an enticing one.
The Tigers captured a comfortable victory over the Suns on the weekend as Jack Riewoldt booted 10 goals and racked up the fifth highest fantasy score of all time with 192 points. It was a game all about going through the motions for the Tigers, which is why they will be disappointing in the loss of Kane Lambert, who suffered an ankle injury and will be out for the rest of the regular season.
Toby Nankervis looks set to return this weekend after a one-week absence with a quad injury (likely rested) while Reece Conca could return to the line-up after playing in the VFL last weekend.
The Bombers also made light work of their opponents on the weekend, downing the Saints by 43 points at Etihad on Friday night as Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti booted five goals in a dominant performance. The Bombers look decent on the injury front at the moment after both Dyson Heppell and Jake Stringer cleared fitness tests to play on Friday night.
The two sides met back in Round 11 of this season where the Tigers ran rampant at the MCG in their “away leg”. They were 71 point winners on the day as Josh Caddy booted four goals and Shane Edwards was fantastic with 31 touches. The Tigers have won their last five games on the trot and are still undefeated at the G dating back to mid-season in 2017.
History:
2018 Round 11 – Essendon (6.7.43) lt. Richmond (17.12.114)
2017 Round 10 – Richmond (11.15.81) dft. Essendon (10.6.66)
2016 Round 17 – Richmond (16.6.102) dft. Essendon (11.17.83)
2016 Round 10 – Essendon (10.7.67) lt. Richmond (16.9.105)
2015 Round 22 – Essendon (7.5.47) lt. Richmond (10.14.74)
2015 Round 9 – Richmond (10.12.72) dft. Essendon (8.11.59)
2014 Round 20 – Richmond (14.11.95) dft. Essendon (11.11.77)
2014 Round 11 – Essendon (15.14.104) dft. Richmond (7.12.54)
Amazingly, the Tigers have won their last seven games in a row against the Bombers which is a great record considering how big the games are every time they face off. The Tigers stars as $1.30 favourites here and it’s hard to find a reason to bet against them at the MCG.
There’s so much on the line for the Bombers this weekend that I think even if they lose this game then it will stay close. They have been in great form of late, losing just one of their last five games and two of their last nine.
The Tigers have only played four top eight teams in the last nine games and in those four games they have lost two and won the other two by 28 and 24 points. They also captured to close wins over Geelong by 18 and 3 points respectively in that time. They are fantastic at grinding out wins but have a tendency to keep it close against good sides.
