Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Underwood Stakes Day at Caulfield on Sunday, October 1st, featuring dual Group 1 races on a nine-race card!
The Group 1 Underwood Stakes and Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes are the two feature races on the card, supported by the Group 2 Thousand Guineas Prelude and Group 3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude.
The track is rated a Good 3 with the rail in the true position and we have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In Episode 2 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about Caulfield and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Sunday, October 1st! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Catchy
Best Value: Race 1 Hunting Hill
Race 1
Wide open race to start the day with a number of chances. STEEL FROST comes up favourite after two good wins in Adelaide to start his preparation. Goes right up in the weights now and has a slightly awkward draw to deal with, so with the depth of this field, I’ll be taking him on at the prices. SPECIAL DIVA looks a good price at $6. She won two in a row at Sandown before finishing 5th to Samovare last start when stepping up to 1600m. Drops back to 1400m here and draws beautifully in barrier 4 so she looks a major player. I think the value in the race is HUNTING HILL. Nathan McPherson has this horse going really well and he came back from a seven week break to win nicely on a heavy track at Mornington. He’s drawn poorly but he’ll go forward from the gate and he’s won at the track previously. I think the horse is flying and looks a decent each way bet at $18. OZI CHOICE failed at Morphettville last start but was knocking on the door for a win before that. Back to Melbourne so expect him to rediscover his form and go close. IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS makes his stable debut for Darren Weir after racing in Sydney. He’s finished in the top two at four of his past five starts so it would be no surprise to see him win this. TYPHOON MONACO may still be looking for longer than 1400m but is undefeated second up from a spell. STORMSABREWING can be included despite the wide gate.
TIP: Special Diva / Hunting Hill EW (Best Value)
Race 2
Pretty keen on QUILISTA here. She’s another Weir horse that went to Adelaide last start and seemingly lost about 5 lengths. She returns to Melbourne here and if she repeats her first up performance when defeating TheAnswerMyFriend then she’ll be awfully hard to run down. Damian Lane takes the ride, low weight, barrier 1, keen. Taking $3.60. SNITTY KITTY is a horse I really like but I’m not sure she gets the ideal conditions here first up with 60kg on her back from a slightly awkward draw. I’ve got a lot of time for her but will be waiting until she gets more suitable race conditions. LYUBA and SULLIVAN BAY both look over the odds. They ran the quinella two starts ago with Sullivan Bay getting the win before both tackling a harder race behind Savannah Amour last start. Lyuba pulled up lame on that occasion so put a line through the run. Sullivan Bay has a tremendous record at the distance and has won her only start at the track and distance, while Lyuba has three 2nd placings from three starts at the track and distance. Sullivan Bay gets a slight pull in the weights from when they ran the quinella two starts ago and both draw well so expecting both to be right in the finish at double figure odds.
TIP: Quilista / Sullivan Bay EW
Race 3
I think HARDHAM wins here but I wouldn’t be jumping into the $1.70 we’re getting. He’s a Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed and won well second up from a spell last start over 1700m. He’ll only improve with the step up to 2000m and the set weights and penalties conditions make him very hard to beat. PABLO’S EXPRESS has won three of his five runs this prep and beat Carraig Aonair last start who subsequently ran 2nd at Flemington on Wednesday. WHEAL LEISURE returned from a spell with a solid win in a small field at Bendigo. She’s placed in Listed grade over 2100m so has the ability to go close, while the small field will suit the Waterhouse/Bott runner TAIKOMOCHI who will lead.
TIP: Hardham
Race 4
Looks a nice race for GUARDINI here third up from a spell. He improved significantly last start when running 2nd behind Hell Or Highwater in Listed grade over this track and distance, and he should be ready to win now given he’s won two from three when third up from a spell. Carries a similar weight with Allen’s claim and the inside gate should give him a lovely run just behind the speed. $6 looks a reasonable price. COUNT DA VINCI was huge first up at $71 when finishing 3rd behind TheAnswerMyFriend and Mr Sneaky, who both go around in Group 1 company today. He’s got a decent second up record and can run a big race once again today. NOZOMI draws poorly in barrier 19 but Bowman takes the ride. He bounced back as expected last start after a typically poor second up run. The barrier makes it hard but he’ll be flashing home late. TURNITAROUND is another with a poor barrier but he’s won four from seven at the distance and placed on another two occasions. He ran a big race behind Grande Rosso and Chocolate Holic first up so include him at the big odds. COOL CHAP and OUR CENTURY others to include in a deep race.
TIP: Guardini / Count Da Vinci EW
Race 5
Very keen on CATCHY here. She bounced back to her best last start when stepping up to the 1200m, hitting the line really strongly to run down Jukebox in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes. I really think the step up to 1400m is what she’s crying out for now at her third run back from a spell, and despite carrying top weight she’s clearly the one to beat. SHOALS returned with a good win at Moonee Valley first up, but she was suited by the way the track was playing that day as the first two in the run ran the quinella. The stable did say she was a bit soft going into that run so expect her to improve further off that. Steps up to 1400m for the first time and probably has to go forward from the wide gate. She’s a good hope but I think Catchy has the upper hand given she’s had one extra run and comes out of some better races. LIMESTONE was our best value bet of the day last start when she fell. She looked as if she would be right in the finish that day so I’m prepared to stick with her here at double figure odds. SHE’S SO HIGH hit the line nicely behind Shoals last start and can go well.
TIP: Catchy (Best Bet) / Limestone EW
Race 6
ROYAL SYMPHONY has been $1.70 out to $2.25 here which is a bit strange, but I put that down to the fact that he faces his acid test here against a field packed full of quality. We’ll find out today just how good this horse is, but last start gave us further indication that he’s pretty smart. They just don’t win like he did last start when he was horribly held up for the large majority of the straight before bursting through to get his head in front. Barrier 12 today is deal – he’ll drop straight out the back and get clear running from the 600m mark. I think this is a very smart horse and happy to take the $2.25 that’s now on offer. KEMENTARI has huge raps on him. He was being touted as a legitimate Golden Rose contender but they decided to bypass that after finishing 4th in the Run To The Rose. Instead they chose to chase the Caulfield Guineas, and I’d expect him to have improved significantly on his first up run. When he stepped up from 1200m to 1400m last prep he won by 4L, so from the good draw he’s the one Royal Symphony will have to gun down. Include MURAAHIB at huge odds. He was ridden too close last start so from the wide barrier they’ll drop him out and have one last crack at them. Hayes has said all along this is their Guineas horse so expect him to go much better than he did last start. INVADER is third up and up to 1400m which is what he needs now. LEVENDI can measure up.
TIP: Royal Symphony
Race 7
The Underwood Stakes is the feature race of the day and in my opinion it’s a two-horse race between HARTNELL and BONNEVAL. I’m prepared to let BLACK HEART BART go around today without my money, because I think he meets two animals superior to him at 1800m. Bart won this race easily last prep but he was $2.20 favourite on the day and beat He Or She. There was certainly no Hartnell or Bonneval in the race so I think he’ll be comfortably held today. I’m prepared to give Hartnell another chance today after he ran 2nd behind Humidor last start. The early tempo of that race was mad and set it up for a backmarker like Humidor to come home over the top of them. He did well to stick on for 2nd given the way the race was run, and I think the tempo of today’s race will be significantly slower than last start. He’s won four of his six races when third up from a spell, and with the slow tempo predicted, that should allow him to get a few lengths margin on Bonneval into the straight. Bonneval was huge first up at the Valley, but again, the way her race was run set it up for the backmarkers to swoop home. Abbey Marie finished 2nd to Bonneval and has since run just fairly, so it just tells you how much the swoopers were favoured in that race. Bonneval is probably still short of her best but she’s shown how versatile she is over a range of distances and she’s won five straight now, so there’s definitely no underestimating her. I just think the tempo of the race will favour Hartnell on this occasion, so I’ll be making use of the Ladbrokes enhanced odds to get $2.60 about Hartnell and I’ll be having a saver on Bonneval at $4.80. I do think SAMOVARE can measure up here on the one-week back-up after running a huge race last weekend. She’s got no shortage of talent and can fill a placing.
TIP: Hartnell
Race 8
Hot field for the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. SCALES OF JUSTICE looks perfectly suited to win his first Melbourne Group 1 here. His first up run behind Redkirk Warrior was outstanding, and he probably gets a bit closer if he didn’t go sideways at the 200m mark. The step up to 1400m is ideal and he’s never finished outside the top two from five runs when second up from a spell. The big positive for him today is the good barrier draw, which should allow him to position wherever he’s comfortable. We’ve seen him come from well off the pace like he did last start and he’s also a Group 1 winner when leading, so he’s got options. It looks his race. MR SNEAKY is a good each way chance at $9. He was dominant first up under a big weight but just found THEANSWERMYFRIEND too speedy last start. The tempo of this race looks very hot, so from the good barrier draw I think he can take a sit behind that speed and pounce with the low weight. He’s undefeated at the track and looks ready to peak third up here. THEANSWERMYFRIEND just ran them into the ground last start but I doubt he can do the same here. There’s a fair bit of speed on paper, especially with Charmed Harmony in the race with a light weight, so he won’t be able to dictate like he did last start. TOSEN STARDOM draws horribly but gets the blinkers on for the first time. He hasn’t won below 1800m and hasn’t won in 99 weeks so they are obvious concerns. If he had have drawn a barrier I think he goes very close here but the wide gate makes it tough. ATTENTION shouldn’t be underestimated at huge odds for Peter and Paul Snowden. His first up record is poor but he tends to improve sharply second up so from the good draw with no weight on his back I wouldn’t be leaving him out. SOVEREIGN NATION can measure up based on his huge last-start win. IT’S SOMEWHAT and SANTA ANA LANE others to consider.
TIP: Scales Of Justice / Mr Sneaky EW
Race 9
Keen on a couple here. ABILITY was a Group 3 winner last start and drops back to Open Handicap company here so despite carrying 60.5kg I don’t think he’s that badly weighted. He’s four from four this preparation and was balloted out of the Moir Stakes on Friday night, so that tells you what level they think he’s at. He draws horribly in the widest barrier but he may be good enough to overcome that. I think the clear value in the race is BASSET at $8. He won three from five last prep which should have been four from five. He’s never missed a place first up from a spell (which includes three wins from five starts), and he’s undefeated at the track and distance. He looks a fantastic each way bet in the race. BADAJOZ comes down from Sydney after four top two finishes from five starts this prep. With the low weight, good draw and Kerrin McEvoy on board he can go close. As an RICH CHARM who is first up from a spell and is undefeated at the track. Drawn well, trialled well leading into this and should run well. OCEAN EMBERS not hopeless.
TIP: Ability / Bassett EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
