The 2017 State of Origin series kicks off on Wednesday night and for the first time in over a decade we believe the New South Wales team has the best side on paper. We break down the big game in our State of Origin Game 1 and Series Preview and Betting Tips below.
Queensland vs New South Wales (Wednesday 8pm AEST)
When you look at the two sides on paper next to each other, it is easy to make an argument the NSW has the better side. A lot of that is due to the misfortune of the QLD team, who are without multiple representatives due to injury. However, they can’t feel too hard done by because it is rare for them to be missing key players. This is most evident with superstar Johnathan Thurston missing his first Origin match since he made his debut – 36 games ago! That is an incredible 12 years in a row without missing a game. Nevertheless the Maroons will be without his services and experience which is a massive blow for them. The injury sees Anthony Milford thrown the number six jersey and he will make his debut for his state in his home stadium, which should be a benefit for him. He will be targeted all night by the Blues though and they will attempt to run over the top of him, especially because he isn’t a noted defender – but they will be hoping it throws him off his attacking game too.
We also believe the Maroons have made a few surprising selections. Leaving out arguably the best fullback of all time could prove costly as Kevin Walters and his selectors opted for Darius Boyd at the back and left Billy Slater out of the side. Aiden Guerra was selected on the bench and he has been struggling to find his best form for a couple of seasons.
New South Wales opted to select Jarryd Hayne in the side despite his inconsistent form. We believe it is the correct decision because all you have to do is look back to the 2014 series which Hayne almost one for NSW by himself. It is the only series NSW has won in 11 years and Hayne is a proven match winner. It would have been the wrong choice to leave him out. Meanwhile the backrow is incredibly strong and the addition of Andrew Fifita into the starting side will be huge for the Blues. Origin games are won in the middle of the field and the Blues should be able to out-muscle the Maroons and score points on the back of the roll on they will get. Mitchell Pearce will be feeling a lot of pressure to perform and his form at club level will need to carry over to the big stage. He has a few familiar faces in the side and will be alongside former club teammate James Maloney so it shouldn’t be an issue.
It has been talked about for years that the Maroons side was aging and with the injuries to key players it appears that it is the case. Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are still in the QLD side and they have a lot of talented players to keep this game close but we believe NSW will be too strong.
TIP: NSW at the margin (1-12) – $2.50 with Sportsbet
As we have just predicting the Blues to win the series opener we will be predicting them to be series winners too. There have been 35 Origin series and on 27 occasions the side that won game 1 has gone on to win the series. A win at Suncorp stadium would be huge for the Blues and it is something they accomplished in 2014, the last time they won a series. They went back to Allianz and earned the victory to claim the series after two matches before losing game 3 at Suncorp. We are predicting the same outcome to happen as we believe NSW will came a 2-1 series win on the back of winning the opening two matches.
TIP: NSW to win the series 2-1 – $2.60 with Sportsbet
_ _ _
