Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Geelong Cup Day this Wednesday, October 25th. We have a nine-race card featuring the Group 3 Geelong Cup, as well as the Listed Geelong Classic and Listed Rosemont Stud Stakes.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 but that could change with up to 8mm of rain predicted on Wednesday.
We have comments and betting tips for every race on the card below.
GEELONG RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Urban Ruler
Best Value: Race 2 Zilbiyr
Race 1
There’s really only three horses I’m interested in here and you could just about back them all. SARACENA goes on top after a positive first up run when 3rd over 1400m at Flemington behind Spannerhead and Mandalay Bay. Spannerhead went on to run in G3 company, while Mandalay Bay won its next start, so the form looks to have stacked up well enough for this race in BM64 company. With the 1400m run under her belt she should be fitter for this race and she draws a beautiful barrier to get a sweet run throughout. I think the clear value in the race is the Weir runner RANSOM MONEY at $10. He improved significantly second up when stepped up to 1400m and with the two runs under his belt this prep I’d expect him to go very close here from the good draw. The best horse in the race could turn out to be STAR MAJOR. This horse bolted in on debut on soft ground over 1400m at Ballarat, before being tipped straight out for a spell. That generally indicates the stable have a decent opinion of the horse, and if they’ve brought him back for the Spring it could mean he’s set for better races. To my eye, in his recent trial he looked very much like a horse that will relish ground, and the fact he won on debut over 1400m also backs up that theory. From the wide draw he will get a long way back; will he be sharp enough first up over 1400m at his first start in this grade? Possibly. I’ll be backing him to cover my bets. Main bets will be Saracena and Ransom Money.
TIP: Saracena / Ransom Money EW
Race 2
Two I’ll be backing here. UBIN THUNDERSTRUCK steps back up to 2400m which could see him turn the tables on TIGER TIM from last start. Three starts ago he won over this distance, beating Crocodile Rock which is great form for this race. His past two starts have been over the shorter trip of 2000m, so with the step up in trip once again, the expected soft ground, the drop in weight and Craig Williams taking over from the apprentice, he should run a big race here. TIGER TIM bolted in over 2000m last start, beating Ubin Thundestruck by 3.5L. It seems this horse either wins or runs a shocker, given from 19 starts he’s had five wins and been unplaced on every other occasion. He’s failed at this distance at his only previous attempt and I’m willing to take him on today. KING WAY was running well leading into last start and he’s got a terrific record at this distance, but when he got to a decent race last start he failed. I have questions over his form prior to last race, and even though this isn’t the strongest of races, it may be another that finds him out. ASCOT RED has really started to hit form for Robert Smerdon but he’s never placed from five starts on soft ground so if the rain comes I’ll risk him. I think the big value in the race is ZILBIYR at $19. He’s a genuine wet tracker but he was also luckless last start on good ground over 2000m. He was held up the entire straight and never got a crack at them, so with conditions to suit here he will run a bold race at big odds.
TIP: Ubin Thunderstruck / Zilbiyr EW (Best Value)
Race 3
Difficult race with nothing really standing out. Not a race I’ll be betting heavily into. BEACH LIFE goes on top; we can forgive him for failing last start when he pulled up lame. Prior to that run he won on a heavy track over 1530m at this track, so the wet ground is unlikely to pose a problem and the distance won’t be an issue. He ran close up in a Group 3 over 2000m this time last year so he deserves the big weight as one of the class runners of the field. KNIGHT STAR has a poor record on soft ground but is ready to do something third up from a spell. He has never placed first or second up from a total of eight races, which means both his wins and both his placings have come third up or beyond (he’s won his only third up run). Plenty of horses that could win this without surprising.
TIP: Beach Life / Knight Star EW
Race 4
Two that interest me here. Happy to stick with GOLD FIELDS who won easily last start over this distance at Mornington. He carries the big weight here but his performance was impressive and his record on soft ground is good enough to suggest he’ll go well again. The value is VELLASTAR at $12 who is undefeated from three starts on soft ground, taking his record on wet ground to four wins from five starts. He’s been poor in his most recent two starts but his win three starts ago at Sandown was enough to suggest a repeat performance would see him go close. FRESHWATER STORM comes out of a particularly strong form race behind Kiwia and Riyadh so expect him to measure right up in this grade. EMOJI gets a 3kg weight swing on Gold Fields from last start and he was luckless in the run so it’d be no surprise to see him continue his good form. He’s failed in both starts on wet ground which is the slight query. ECHIELE was good first up but has never placed from three starts when second up so happy to risk.
TIP: Gold Fields / Vellastar EW
Race 5
Really keen on URBAN RULER here first up from a spell. He’s got two wins and a placing from three starts when first up, has a decent record at the distance and has two wins from three starts on soft ground. Draws perfectly in barrier 3 and the booking of Damien Oliver for Greg Eurell is notable. I think there’s a few knocks on some of his main rivals so I think he has a big chance of winning this. SMACKDOWN is one to include at odds. His recent form has been uninspiring, but his record on wet ground is significantly better than dry. He’s finished in the money on eight occasions from 11 starts on wet ground and he’s won his only start at the track, so he could show up with form jockey Mark Zahra on board. Currently at $18. THELBURG would go close on best form but the wet ground is the query, and LABUAN STAR draws terribly in barrier 16. BROADWAY AND FIRST should be included, while the booking of Hugh Bowman on KIEVANN first up from a spell is eye-catching.
TIP: Urban Ruler (Best Bet) / Smackdown EW
Race 6
Bit of a dartboard job this race. There’s four main horses that I think can win. SAVAHEAT goes on top after a dominant win in Adelaide last start over 1800m when coming from last to sail home and win by 2.2L. The step up to 2200m looks to only suit him further and given he ran 2nd on heavy ground on debut, he should be able to overcome any rain that falls. Draws a low barrier so Yendall will need some luck if he gets back as far as he has in previous starts. JONNY VINKO has placed behind Tavistock Abbey and Main Stage in his last two starts, with Cliff’s Edge coming out of the most recent of those to win at Caulfield last weekend. He’s placed in both starts on soft ground so the only thing he’ll need to overcome is the wide barrier draw. Looks to have the ability. UNDERGROUND stepped up sharply in trip to 2400m last start and bolted in by more than eight lengths. The stable is running hot and the booking of Damien Oliver is a good lead. Back down to 2200m but draws well and should feature. OCEAN’S FOURTEEN comes off a good win at Donald last start after a solid win at Cranbourne on debut. Steps up sharply from 1600m to 2200m now but will go forward from the inside gate and give them something to run down.
TIP: Savaheat / Ocean’s Fourteen EW
Race 7
The Geelong Cup field is slightly underwhelming this year compared to last year. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN goes on top and pretty clearly for me. Comes out of the Group 3 Herbert Power which dished out the Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time and 4th placed Lord Fandango. Looks set to peak now with the 2400m run under his belt and the rain will be no problem at all. Well weighted and Craig Williams takes over so happy to be on him here. His stablemate KELLSTORM grows a leg on rain-affected ground, with five wins and three placings from eight starts on soft or heavy. He won three consecutive races in a canter over in Adelaide earlier this prep, all three of which were on wet ground over 2500m so neither the track nor the distance will pose a problem. Can go close. WHEAL LEISURE looks value for a stable that’s flying. She’s won both her starts this prep and I don’t see the step up in distance being an issue. Beat Lord Fandango two starts ago so her form is strong enough to win this. The soft ground could also see LIZZIE L’AMOUR turn her form around. She’s won four from five on soft ground and her best form would win this race given she’s a Group 1 winner. VIOLATE another to include.
TIP: Gallic Chieftain / Wheal Leisure EW
Race 8
There’s a few in this race that would win on their best form but can only really be taken on trust. QUIISTA made a big impact on debut in Melbourne but has probably been a touch underwhelming since. Having said that, she finished 3rd to Snitty Kitty last start which looks a very good form line to follow. If she is allowed to bowl along in front here from the good gate she will be tough to run down. I was keen to take on CRYSTAL FOUTNAIN on the weekend but she was scratched from that race in preference for this and she profiles as a decent chance here. She’s stepped up with every start and resumes from a let-up here with a trial under the belt. She’s untested on wet ground which is the only query, but she’s won at the track and distance and draws a peach of a barrier. The value is WRITTEN ERA, particularly if the ground gets to heavy. Her heavy track form is outstanding and the drop back to 1200m is a big positive. GHISONI is only second up off a very long spell and may still need another run. ELLICAZOOM is expected to improve sharply on what she’s shown in her first two starts back from a spell but the drop back to 1200m is a query.
TIP: Crystal Fountain EW / Written Era EW
Race 9
Hugely competitive way to end the card. Excited to see the return of PRIVATE LOUNGE who is a bit unlucky not to be undefeated and returns from a fairly lengthy spell here. There’s a few queries about her with her being unproven on wet ground and also race-fitness wise off such a long spell, but she’s got no shortage of talent. Damien Oliver is booked to ride for Andrew Payne which is a good lead, and we may get even better than the $6 currently on offer. SANG CHOI BAO has had early money and should be ready to do something now third up from a spell. Has only placed three times from 11 starts when first or second up, so with those two runs under the belt this Weir horse should improve sharply. Was beaten less than a length last start so it’s knocking on the door already. There’s a few at big odds that could spring a surprise. The likes of TIGDIG TIGDIG and HARBOUR GREY are the two main ones I speak of. JUST HIFALUTIN ran a good race first up and should be right in the finish second up on wet ground here. Likewise with BORD DE GAIN, but I’m more than happy to take on AMADEUS here at that price. AJANI thereabouts. Several chances in a tough way to end the quaddie.
TIP: Private Lounge / Harbour Grey EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
