After a third straight week of going 3/4 betting on the 2017 AFL Women's league, we are now 9/12 and just under +7 units during that period. We are now into the final week of the regular AFLW season as my $15-1 preseason pick for the premiership are now into $1.65 after the Lions are guaranteed a top-of-the-ladder finish. There are a few interesting match-ups in the final round with a couple of teams fighting for the remaining spot in the Grand Final, so make sure to read on for my 2017 AFLW Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips.
Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, March 18th at 4:35pm AEDT)
The Demons are currently third on the ladder behind Adelaide, but only sit out of the top two by percentage - albeit by a big margin. That means they have to win this game and then hope that the Crows are defeated by Collingwood on Sunday. Fate begins in their hands with only Fremantle standing in their way.
The Dockers were the only team still without a win before last week, but finally got on the board with a strong victory over the Blues. While they showed promise, you have to think this will be too tough in Casey on Saturday afternoon. The Dockers are 10-point underdogs, but I think they can keep it relatively close, especially if Kara Donnellan can continue the form that sees her as Fremantle's leading goal-kicker and disposal winner. I will be taking the Demons at the margin.
Tip: Demons by 1-24 points - $2.25 at Bet365 (1 unit)
GWS Giants vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, March 18th at 7:10pm AEST)
Despite being on the bottom of the ladder, the Western Bulldogs are still 3-point favourites against the GWS Giants this Saturday night. The loser of this game will go into the record books as the first AFL Women's wooden spoon winner.
The Bulldogs haven't been getting crushed by huge margins, with the last three weeks seing them lose to the ladder leading Lions by just 7 points, the Blues by 6 and the Pies by 5. They, did, however, only have 6 scoring shots to 13 against an inaccurate Brisbane.
After defeating the Demons a fortnight ago, the Giants were back to their worst last week, letting the Pies score a league-high 55 points. On that form, the edge does go to the Dogs in what could be a relatively competitive game. Can get $2.15 for the Dogs at the margin, compared to $1.75 at other Australian sports betting websites.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points - $2.15 at Bet365 (1 unit)
Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows (Sunday, March 19th at 1:35pm AEST)
The Crows will know what they need to do in this game to make the AFLW Grand Final once the Demons have played on Saturday afternoon. If the Demons lose, they don't need to win here. If the Demons win, they have to defeat the Pies. This will change the dynamic of the game greatly. That's why I have to fade this game - for now. If the Demons lose, consider betting on the Pies as the Crows would be crazy not to take it easy and rest up a little for the Grand Final. If the Demons win, take the Crows as they will come out with a ferocious appetite.
Tip: No Bet - Watch for Melbourne result
Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, March 19th at 3:35pm AEST)
Like the Collingwood v Adelaide game, there is an interesting dynamic in play for the Blues v Lions game because Brisbane are already guaranteed a spot in the Grand Final. That should be their focus now, which means no injuries and not over-exerting themselves. Ad in the fact that this game is in Victoria and you can see why the Blues are slight favourites. It's hard to argue for the Lions, even though they haven't lost a game all season. There is, however, an argument to be made that the coaching staff will want to make sure they continue their winning 'habit' and keep their processes in place, even if that is slight risky in this situation. Will be having a small play on the Blues, but can't fire too much on this one.
Tip: Carlton at the line (-2.5) - $1.90 at Ladbrokes (0.5 units)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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