It's been a very interesting start to the 2017 AFL Women's League (AFLW). Just a few weeks ago the Bulldogs and the Dockers were the teams to beat, while now it is all about the Crows and the Lions. Let's see which teams can gain some ground as I preview and offer my 2017 AFLW Round 4 preview and betting tips.
AFL Women's Round 4 Betting Tips
Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, February 25th at 11:35am AEST)
The Blues lost in a low-scoring thriller against the Crows last week, which cemented Adelaide's position as the premiership favourites. Carlton still looked like a real threat, but they have taken huge hit to their list with marquee defender Briana Davey now out for two weeks with a back injury, while fellow defender Sarah Last is out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury. We know how dangerous the Carlton forward line can be and now the question is whether or not their backline can cover for these two losses. I'm not sure they can.
The Demons are still in with a chance to go all the way, but need to win their Round 4 clash against Carlton. Their leading goal kicker Alyssa Mifsud will be happy to use her strong hands in the forward line without Carlton's best defender on the field, while the Demons midfield seems to be starting to gel after struggling in the wet in the opening round. Really like the Demons at this price.
Tip: Melbourne at the line (+3.5) - $1.90 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
+ Melbourne by 1-39 Points - $2.25 at Sportsbet (0.5 units)
Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants (Saturday, February 25th at 4:35pm AEST)
Before the AFLW season started the bookies would have had us believe that this Round 4 game would have been a battle for the wooden spoon. But now the Lions are second favourite for the flag, paying $3.50. They might have been spot on about the Giants, however, as they are now paying $201 to go all the way.
While it will certainly be tough for the Giants to contest for the premiership in the inaugural AFL Women's season, they showed a bit of heart in their draw with the Dockers last week. They managed to put a season-high 43 points on the board and at times looked dangerous moving the ball forward. The Lions, however, continue to impress, defeating Collingwood and remaining undefeated. They should be able to snag another win - especially in Brisbane. I will be taking the Lions to win in a relatively competitive game.
Tip: Brisbane to win by 1-24 points - $2.20 at Bet365 (1 unit)
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood (Saturday, February 25th at 7:10pm AEST)
Collingwood's highly-rated list has struggled to deliver so far this AFLW season as they are the only team to lose all three games (GWS and Freo drew last week). The Bulldogs haven't really been much stronger, winning just the one game against the struggling Dockers.
I think the Bulldogs deserve to be favourites, but the $1.60 on offer doesn't excite me because I do think the Pies can be competitive. They were solid against the Lions last week and will take confidence out of the 4-point loss. With the price juicier than the Dogs straight out, I'm taking either team to win by under 15.5 points as I don't believe the Dogs have the scoring power to blow it out if they do win.
Tip: Either Team by Under 15.5 Points - $1.68 at CrownBet (0.5 units)
Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows (Sunday, February 26th at 7:05pm AEST)
The Crows have no doubt been the surprise team of the inaugural AFL Women's season. They have won every game including a tough victory over the fancied Blues last week. The Dockers, meanwhile, were once premiership favourites and now look like their draw with GWS last week might be the highlight of their season.
Erin Phillips was once again electric last week with the Adelaide star moving into favouritism to take out the AFLW league best and fairest. It's going to be tough for the Dockers to stop her influence on the game. There isn't much value betting on the Crows to win and the line looks dangerous, so I will be hoping the Dockers being at home will allow them to keep the game within four goals.
Tip: Adelaide to win by 1-24 points - $2.15 at Bet365 (0.5 units)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
