Just four weeks left in the 2017 AFL season and there are still several teams fighting for a spot in the top eight. For those interested, the AFL finally announced the final round schedule. Otherwise, be sure to read on for my 2017 AFL Round 20 preview and betting tips.
2017 AFL Round 20 Betting Tips
Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans (Friday, August 1st at 7:50pm AEST)
We are treated with a massive Friday night game to kick off Round 20 with the Sydney Swans traveling to Simonds Stadium to take on the Cats.
There is no doubt the Dangerfield suspension has been more of a talking point this week than the game itself. Not much more can be said around that topic, but hopefully footy's most prestigious honour won't be too affected if my 2017 Brownlow medal vote predictions are anything to go by. Regardless, Dangerfield will be sorely missed this week - not just because he's a beast himself, but also the pressure he takes off Joel Selwood, which also allows guys like Mitch Duncan to excel. As one of the best goal-kicking midfielders in the game at the moment, Dangerfield also puts a lot of pressure on the scoreboard. If the Cats are going to win this, I really think they will need to rely on Tom Hawkins having another great game (he kicked six goals last week). Yes, the Cats have a great record at Simonds where they have won the last seven, but take note that the last time they lost here was against the Swans last year. Sydney were out-coached last week and both their midfield and Lance Franklin didn't play their best, but I think they can bounce back this week and continue as one of the most in-form teams in the comp at the moment.
Tips: Sydney by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.45 at CrownBet (2.5 units)
GWS Giants vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, August 2nd at 1:45pm AEST)
The Giants look to solidify their place in the top 4, while the Demons fight to lock up a spot in the top 8 in what should be a very interesting Saturday afternoon clash.
Despite managing a victory against the Dockers last week, the Giants played pretty poor football It was also there first win since Round 14, so they clearly are still struggling to overcome their injury problems and overall seem like an unsettled team. Fortunately, they take on the Demons without Jesse Hogan who is once again on the sidelines after making a promising return, while interestingly Brett Deledio is likely to come in to debut for the Giants - a welcomed in considering Jeremey Cameron won't be on the park. This should be a close game that will likely come down to a battle of two talented midfields, but ultimately I think the Demons are clearly still very vulnerable and should find this too hard up in Canberra.
Tip: GWS Giants by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.15 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, August 2nd at 2:10pm AEST)
Essendon come into Round 20 on the back of a loss which now sees them in an even more desperate fight with multiple teams for what will likely be the last spot in the top eight. Fortunately, this week they play the lowly Blues so should notch up a win and keep themselves in contention.
I thought it was interesting to see the way the Bombers played the Bulldogs last week. Instead of playing a tight-contested style that most have employed against the Dogs, they played their usual fast-paced spread type game and allowed the Bulldogs to do the same. The reigning premiers ended up playing the best since late last year, scoring the most they have all season. Although they lost the game, they still showcased how well they can move the ball and how dangerous Joe Daniher is. Carlton have played some strong defensive games this year, but will have their hands full against the Bombers. Just a small play, but I think Essendon can cover a relatively conservative line here.
Tip: Essendon at the line (-24.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs (Saturday, August 2nd at 4:35pm AEST)
No doubt the Bulldogs have started to play some solid football, but to say they have turned their season around or back to their premiership form is an overstatement. They have won three games in row - one of those against the Blues and another against an Ablett-less Suns which doesn't exactly set the form agenda. They did play their best football against the Bombers last week, but they need to keep that up for the rest of the season if they are to make the finals. The Lions get Dayne Zorko back after he served his one-week suspension and he will be integral to Brisbane's plight in Round 20. Brisbane are a great centre clearance team which is where the Dogs have struggled this season. The Dogs were able to find a way to win despite losing the ball in the middle against the Bombers and I do think they win this one, but the line is a bit high. Brisbane have a similar capacity to score as the Bulldogs and with the game at the Gabba think they should be competitive.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (2.5 units)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies (Saturday, August 2nd at 7:25pm AEST)
Neither the Magpies or the Kangaroos can make the finals, so it will be all about pride on Saturday night at Etihad Stadium.
After a week of 'tanking' claims, the Roos came out and managed their 5th win of the season against the Demons. They played some great footy with Ben Brown clearly becoming one of the powerhouse forwards in the comp. However, the game was in Tasmania which they love and clearly they are the bogey team for a disappointing Demons. I think this game at Etihad is going to be far tougher, with the Magpie midfield likely to cut up the Roos. North Melbourne made their point about not tanking last week, but I think it's been clear this season that they are struggling. The Magpies should bounce back after a disappointing second half which saw them lose to Crows after being up by as much as 50 points.
Tip: Collingwood by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units)
Fremantle Dockers vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, August 2nd at 5:40pm AWST)
It's another 'dead rubber' Saturday night game during Round 20 with the Gold Coast Suns travelling to Domain Stadium to take on the Dockers.
The Dockers have lost eight of their last nine after a somewhat promising start to the season and despite looking solid at times against GWS last week, they clearly can't get the job done. They probably have the worst forward line in the comp (outside of the Blues maybe) and don't have a huge amount of depth elsewhere. Unfortunately for them, they lost one of their best players in Connor Blakely last week, which will really hurt them against a superior Suns' midfield - maybe even if Ablett doesn't play. The Suns have a shocking record at Domain, but I really think they are a small chance to win this one. Taking them at the line.
Tip: Gold Coast at the line (+17.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
St Kilda Saints vs West Coast Eagles (Sunday, August 3rd at 1:10pm AEST)
Sunday's game between the Saints and Eagles is another situation where both teams desperately need to win to remain in contention for the finals.
The Saints are currently two games out of the eight after blowing an opportunity against Port Adelaide last week. Not long after that loss Nick Riewoldt announced he would be retiring at the end of the season which no doubt made fans even more upset that their team drifted further from giving the champion one more shot at playing footy in September. They simply can't lose this if they are any chance at the finals and I think they will defeat the Eagles and keep their hopes alive. The last time the Eagles played at Etihad they blew a lead and let an injured Collingwood win by four goals. West Coast are simply not playing good football this season and if it wasn't for dominance at Domain they wouldn't have a shot at finals themselves. Should be a great game, but ultimately give the edge to the Saints here.
Tip: St Kilda by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.38 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks (Sunday, August 3rd at 3:20pm AEST)
It's not too often massive crowds flood the stands on a Sunday, but that will be the case in Round 20 as the Tigers and Hawks take to the MCG.
Of all the teams in finals contention, the Hawks are probably playing the best football. However, they are also the least likely of all the times seeing as they actually cannot lose another game or it's just going to be too far out of reach. The Tigers, meanwhile, are one game clear in the top 4 and no doubt want to solidify their shot a double chance in September by winning games like this. I think this could be the best game of the round as the master coach Alistair Clarkson will have his work cut out for him against a redhot Richmond. I do lean towards Richmond, but it's hard to bet against the Hawks the way they are playing. What I like here is the game to be close regardless. Can get solid odds for either team by four goals or less and that's how I think this one plays out.
Tip: Either Team By 24 Points or Less - $1.72 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide Power (Sunday, August 3rd at 4:10pm ACST)
It's refreshing to see the last game on a Sunday afternoon be a legitimate blockbuster with an old-fashioned showdown between the Crows and Power a great way to end Round 20.
The Crows have won five straight showdowns, but for the first time in a while looked quite beatable against the Magpies last week. They did end up clawing back from a 50-point deficit to draw, but played horrible football in the first half. Overall, however, they are a far classier outfit than Port Adelaide. No Doubt the Power will come out to play to try and attack the top four, but they are going to have their work cut out for them. Chad Wingard is still on the sidelines which is a big out when taking on a talented midfield like the Crows. Like the majority of showdowns, it should be a close game, but giving this one to Adelaide.
Tip: Adelaide by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.15 at Ladbrokes (1.5 units)
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