The final bye round of 2017 sees another Thursday night kick off as the Cats head out west to take on the Eagles. There are plenty of other interesting games too, so let's see if I can find some winners with my 2017 AFL Round 13 preview and betting tips.
2017 AFL Round 13 Betting Tips
West Coast Eagles vs Geelong Cats (Thursday, June 15th at 6:10 AWST)
The West Coast Eagles will be happy to be back at Domain Stadium and will be trying to get their season back on track after bad form has seen them slip out of the top eight. They face a tough task, however, with the red-hot Cats looking to score their fourth straight victory.
Last week's bye couldn't come quick enough for the Eagles with three straight losses bringing a barrage of criticism - especially considering they somewhat uncharacteristically lost one of those at home. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there was nothing but praise for Geelong with tough wins over the Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Crows. The only "criticism" anyone could give Geelong was that their three wins came in consecutive games down in Geelong. Despite the form lines of these two teams, the Cats are only marginal favourites which can be attributed to where the game is being played and the fact that Tom Hawkins is going to miss with suspension. That's a massive out and puts pressure on Geelong's arguably thin forward line. However, the Eagles are very likely to still be without Josh J Kennedy which is an even greater loss considering how poorly Jack Darling and Mark LeCras have been performing. Like most of Geelong's victories, this game will be won in the midfield. The Cats are ranked 4th for contested possessions compared to the Eagles 16th and if Scott Selwood can quell someone like Luke Shuey, I can really see the Cats dominating this department. The Eagles usually fight hard at home, but can't go past the Cats at the moment.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.40 at CrownBet (2 units)
North Melbourne vs St Kilda (Friday, June 16th at 7:50pm AEST)
One of the more interesting games of Round 13 sees the Kangaroos and Saints take to Etihad Stadium in what should be a ripping Friday night contest.
North Melbourne come into this game fresh off the bye and will be confident they can sneak a win against a St Kilda side who looked putrid last week. They also have a great record against the Saints, winning the last five. No doubt St Kilda have plenty of areas to address to play more consistent football, but they simply don't look anywhere near as dangerous or slick without Nick Riewoldt, but it's looking like he might be a welcomed return this week and if he plays, could be the difference. North Melbourne have certainly shown glimpses of solid football, but their young side is understandably inconsistent and overall I think the Saints should outclass them. The Saints midfield hasn't gelled the last couple of weeks and they perhaps rely too much on Jack Steven playing well, but Seb Ross is in career best form and they have much more depth through the middle than the Roos. We can't forget how good the Saints have been at times this season and if they can get their forwar line mix right with Riewoldt back in the side, they can easily overcome the Roos. I will be betting on the Saints, but with the caveat that I would like to see how close Riewoldt is to being named before committing.
Tip: St Kilda to win Hd-Hd - $1.92 at CrownBet (2 units)
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans (Saturday, June 17th at 1:45pm AEST)
The Tigers are brimming with confidence in the top four at the moment and will be confident as they head into Round 13. They won't be finding an easy win this week, however, as they face the in-form Swans.
It's hard to imagine a team can start 0-6 and still make the finals, but Sydney might just be that team if they can snag a victory against the Tigers this week to move to 5-7. They are every chance to do that if they repeat their great performance which saw them smash the Bulldogs last week. They seem to closer to their best than at any other stage this season and the last time they faced the Tigers at their best was Round 23 of last year which saw them destroy their opponents by 113 points. Overall, however, the Tigers have a solid record against the Swans with the ledger sitting at 3-3. The biggest worry for the Tigers this week will be finding a way to score more than the 77 points they average over last six games. The Swans have averaged 102 throughout that same period which is promising considering it hasn't been only Lance Franklin dominating up forward with Tom Papley, Sam Reid and the 2017 debutant Will Hayward all contributing. I don't want to be overly reactionary to their win over the Bulldogs (who played poor last week), but I do think the Swans look dangerous and should be a great chance against the Tiger.
Tip: Sydney by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.40 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions (Saturday, June 17th at 4:05pm ACST)
Port Adelaide head into Round 13 on the back of their worst loss of the season and while they are heavy favourites, they will face the Brisbane Lions on the back of their best win of the year.
This game would have been pencilled in as a sure-thing for Port Adelaide a fortnight ago, but that's not necessarily the case after their horrible 70-point loss to Essendon coupled with Brisbane's shock 57-point victory over the Dockers. I'm not going to bury the lead hear - Port Adelaide should bounce back and win, but after last week I am very wary of the 55-point line. I actually think the Lions showed enough - especially their talented midfield - to argue they can keep this game well within 10 goals. But I'm not confident enough to make it an official play, especially with this game being at Adelaide Oval. Happy to simply sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet.
Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, June 17th at 7:25pm AEST)
Anyone thinking the upsets couldn't possibly continue in 2017 were greatly mistaken last Sunday afternoon as the Blues managed a riveting 1-point victory over the premiership favourite Giants. They will now look to build on that victory in Round 13 as they head to Gold Coast to take on the Suns.
The Suns go into Round 13 in some solid form of their own, winning 3 of the last 5 including last week's 16-point win over the Hawks. We already knew the Suns had one of the best young forwards in the competition with Tom Lynch, but it's their Gary Ablett led midfield that has been playing great football, while Kade Kolodjashnij is becoming one of the better half-backs in the game. They have a long way to go, but their are positive signs and it's games like this at home against a team like the Blues that will define them. This is a game they "should" win, so there are no excuses if they don't. It's not going to be easy, however, with the Blues full of confidence after last week. I do think the Suns deserve to be favourites - especially at Metricon - but a 20-point line looks generous. The Blues are a better defensive side than the Suns and as long as they can contain Lynch, I think they can keep this one close. Jump on this line while you can as I expect the Carlton hype train during the week will see it backed in a few points.
Tip: Carlton at the line (+20.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes (2 units)
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Demons (Sunday, June 18th at 3:20pm AEST)
Round 13 - the final bye round of the season - concludes on Sunday afternoon at Etihad with the Demons taking on the Western Bulldogs.
The reigning premiers continue to ride a bit of a roller coaster this season. They are currently sitting 6-5 in 8th place and while they can beat anyone on their day, they looked very poor against the Swans last week. Their selection for a sloppy game in wet conditions came under scrutiny over the weekend, so it will be interesting to see how Luke Beveridge responds. I think it's pretty likely Travis Cloke and Tim English will be sent back to the VFL and they will try playing 'small' again like they did in that big win over the Saints a few weeks ago. They will once again be without Bob Murphy who is still out for another couple of weeks, while Marcus Adams was a big loss last week as he has become a pillar of the backline, while also playing forward when needed. They will be happy to come into this one refreshed after the bye and facing a Melbourne team that had a ferocious game on Monday against the Pies. Max Gawn is knocking on the door to return and would be a huge addition considering the Demons have struggled in the ruck without him - though it seems more likely he will have atleast one more week on the sidelines. The Bulldogs will be looking to get Tom Boyd back in the side which will help their own ruck stocks as he plays an important role in sharing duties with Jordan Roughead. I think this will be one of the better games of the week, but give the slight edge to the Dogs at Etihad as they look to bounce back after their loss to the Swans.
Tip: Bulldogs by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
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