It's not often there is quality horse racing to kick-start a week, but our latest racing tips article is for Monday, August 1st's 2016 Darwin Cup which Tim_Tips previews below.
Carlton Mid Darwin Cup 2000m
The 2016 Darwin Cup adds a little bit of spice to an otherwise uninspiring day of racing in Australia on Monday, with 12 runners lining up over 2000m for the $200,000 prize.
The top 6 runners are all under double-figure odds, which gives some indication as to the openness of the race. Darwin is not a track I typically study the form for, but I've assessed the chances of each runner below:
LIGHTINTHENITE: Has a good record in Darwin and has won some high rating races here and as a result has to carry 63kg under handicap conditions. Has finished 1st and 2nd in two starts over this track and distance. Last start he finished 4th when resuming from nearly a year off. Will be fitter but he has to carry at least 7.5kg more than anything else here, and at only his 2nd start back from a year off I think the odds on offer are poisonous.
WHISTLE STOP: Beat Lightinthenite by nearly 4 lengths two starts ago and backed that up with a 2nd place finish behind Our Valdivia last start. Gets a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour on Our Valdivia today which evens them up a bit, but I have concerns over his ability at 2000m. Might stretch him but he's racing well.
OUR VALDIVIA: Absolutely flying having won three in a row and beat Whistle Stop by 1.3 lengths last start. Obviously the weight swing goes against him here but he remains at 55kg and draws well. Will be up on pace and definitely rates as one of the leading chances.
FINKE: Has won his last 8 straight races, including one over this distance (last start) and 5/5 at the track. The concern is he is a 3YO (4YO as of today) taking on Open class company which is always a big test, but you can't knock his form. Other slight concern is the pace in the race. From barrier 8 he may look to come across but there is 4 other runner that can lead so it may be best for him to take a sit. Good chance to win again.
ROYAL REQUEST: Well supported last start and won over 1900m. Draws well, drops to 54.5kg and will be suited by the hot tempo on up front. The booking of Tommy Berry is a noteable one and he looks to be a solid each way chance.
SATURDAY SORCERER: Ran 2nd to Royal Request last start and drops 5kg from that run. Gets a 1.5kg weight swing in his favour over Royal Request so can turn the tables. He's another that could possibly get caught in a speed battle, but Yendall is a strong jockey booking and he's already been $14 into $7 so could produce a big run.
BIG MAN: Ran 3rd last start to Our Valdivia, beaten 1.5 lengths, and gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour today. He is a bold front runner so he'll be looking to come across from barrier 12 in order to lead, which I think will work against him given there could be a few kick up inside him. Did run 2nd in the Alice Springs Cup over 2000m so not hopeless.
MOON DEVIL: Ran 3rd behind Royal Request and Saturday Sorcerer last start, beaten 2.3 lengths. Only gets a 1.5kg weight swing so doesn't look likely to turn the tables. Another one that will be involved in the hot tempo up front so looking to others.
KAYNO: Comprehensively beaten at his past three starts and has never placed from four attempts over 2000m. Prefer others.
ORION: Very ordinary in his past two and would be very surprising to see him feature in the finish here.
SPARTAN EAGLE: Ran 3rd in the Alice Springs Cup in May and finished off ok behind Our Valdivia last start over 1600m. Has a decent record at 2000m so he has place claims.
CANNY BALLAD: Very ordinary lately after what was originally a decent first up run at Oakbank. His best would see him run well but not sure he's going well enough.
Summary
Looks a very tough race to work out, with about 6 runners all holding legitimate winning claims. Hard to go against Finke who has won his last 8 races. Concern over the step up to Open class but he looks to be a good horse.
Whistle Stop will appreciate the hot tempo, as will Royal Request, while Lightinthenite will have to overcome a serious weight difference to win.
Our Valdivia and Saturday Sorcerer also with genuine winning chances.
Looks an ultra competitive race and I really struggled to narrow down the selections but I've gone this way:
1st FINKE
2nd SATURDAY SORCERER
3rd OUR VALDIVIA
4th LIGHTINTHENITE
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
