Spring is certainly here and this Saturday sees a huge day of racing with a 10 race program headlined by the $3 million 2016 Caulfield Cup!
The Group 1 is supported by a further 9 races which include two Listed events, four Group 3's and two Group 2's.
The track is in the Good 3 range and the rail is out 6m the entire circuit. The forecast is for fine weather so we'll be on a Good 3 all day.
We have horse racing betting tips for all 9 races as well as a comprehensive preview of the Caulfield Cup!
2016 Caulfield Cup Day Betting Tips
- Best Bet: Race 8 - Hellbent
- Best Value: Race 7 - Scottish
Race 1 - MyPunter.com Plate 1400m
I do think SYLPHEED is going to be hard to beat here but at the odds I'd rather be backing SKYLIGHT GLOW who brings strong Sydney form to the race.
She has form around the likes of Swear and Foxplay over this distance, and was outclassed in the Flight Stakes last start - a race which has produced two subsequent Group 1 winners in Global Glamour and Yankee Rose. She did weaken badly but back to 1400m and blinkers off could be the keys to her bouncing back. Needs luck going forward but Bowman takes the ride and I think her form from her first two starts this preparation should see her very competitive here. The best value runners in the race are ANOTHER BULLSEYE, SWAMPLAND and PETITION.
Tip: Skylight Glow
Race 2 - Polytrack Gothic Stakes 1400m
Once again the Sydney form looks supreme here. ACATOUR looks one of the better bets on the card after his dominant win at Rosehill last start. Snowden runners always perform well when they're sent to Melbourne and so long as they can make ground on the track he should prove very hard to beat. MORTON'S FORK looks the obvious danger after resuming with a convincing win in Sydney. INSIDE AGENT is a horse I've got a lot of time for and looks best of the locals, while PEACOCK and APIATA are two at longer odds worth including.
Tip: Acatour
Race 3 - Crown Lager Alinghi Stakes 1100m
I count about 6 horses that can win this: Miss Promiscuity, I Love It, Almighty Girl, Flippant, Vezalay and Super Cash.
MISS PROMISCUITY looks ready to win at her third run back and loves the track and distance; I LOVE IT really appealed to me based on her last two first up runs but her stats over the 1100m and at Caulfield are holding me back; ALMIGHTY GIRL is a Group 3 winner and looked sharp in her jump out; FLIPPANT is another Snowden runner that I expect to fire fresh with Bowman on board; VEZALAY is another with great stats at the track and distance and will do no work from the barrier; SUPER CASH won well over course and distance first up but I would prefer others in this grade.
I think I'll be backing each of MISS PROMISCUITY ($13), I LOVE IT ($8), and VEZALAY ($7.50) at the prices.
Tip: Vezalay - Each Way
Race 4 - New Zealand Bloodstock Ethereal Stakes 2000m
Pretty keen to back SEBRING DREAM here but she will need a good ride from barrier 13. Has been running in much stronger races than this and will relish the step up to 2000m. Biggest danger could be ELEONORA who was a complete forgive run last start, while BELLA SOLLELASTRA is another good chance but will also need a good ride from the wide barrier.
Tip: Sebring Dream
Race 5 - Ladbrokes Classic 2000m
Four main chances here for mine. SEABURGE comes off two outstanding runs, most recently in the Guineas. Hit the line like he will get 2000m, he might just need a bit of luck from barrier 1 but he is the obvious choice. THROSSEL was too bad to be true last start and pulled up with heart irregularities. Ciaron Maher is confident he can bounce back and if you go off his previous run he certainly comes into calculations. INFERENCE didn't handle the Valley last start. Prior to that he was ultra impressive so deserves another chance from the good draw. WATERLOO SUNSET looks big odds given she ran a good 2nd in Group 2 company last start and will love the 2000m.
Sticking with Seaburge but can place saver bets on the others at the prices available.
Tip: Seaburge
Race 6 - Priceline Pharmacy Coongy Cup 2000m
IT'S SOMEWHAT comes up a deserved favourite. Two starts ago he finished 3rd behind Winx and Hauraki before a dominant win last start. Draws barrier 1 here so gets a charmed run behind the speed and will be tough to beat. My concern is around the strength of the opposition last start - it was only a field of 4 and the 3 horses he beat were slowies.
For that reason I'm siding with MAURUS who I think is flying. He trialled exceptionally before running on very well behind Real Love last start, who is among the top hopes in the Caulfield Cup. His record over this distance is good and I think he's worth backing at $5.50.
Tip: Maurus
Race 7 - Schweppes Tristarc Stakes 1400m
The way Caulfield has been playing recently, TYCOON TARA will get every chance from the front. She's won 3 from 4 so far this prep and under similar conditions again today she can win again. FIRST SEAL is an obvious danger and will strip much fitter today - she clearly blew out first up and her second up record suggests she will improve sharply today, but she has a fair margin to turn around on Tycoon Tara. DANISH TWIST looks to have come back in fantastic shape but will need a good ride, luck and the tempo in her favour, while SHILLELAGH looks the best value in the race at $12 after a good win last win. Sovereign Nation has since run well again and from the good draw she can feature in the finish.
Happy to back Tycoon Tara to win and Shillelagh each way.
Tip: Tycoon Tara / Shillelagh EW
Race 8 - 2016 BMW Caulfield Cup
Not the greatest edition of the Caulfield Cup and quite a tricky one to work out with a number of internationals engaged. I've narrowed it down to about eight chances.
Let's go through all of the internationals first, because they obviously all have some chance.
My pick of the internationals is Godolphin's SCOTTISH. If you look back through this horse's form you will see he ran 2nd to Royal Artillery in a Group 3 two starts ago. Royal Artillery has since come out and run 3rd to Almanzor in a Group 1, and Almanzor is flying. Scottish also came out and won his last start in Group 3 company, so the form stacks up well. He will have no issue with the distance - the last time he ran over 2400m he finished 2nd to Highland Reel, who is also an international Group 1 winner. From barrier 7 he will be up on the pace as he has tactical speed, and he will love the firm ground. Looks a great bet to my eyes.
EXOSPHERIC has form behind Postponed, who is one of the best horses in Europe and was favourite for the Arc. His last run at the distance he won by 4 lengths over Simple Verse and Big Orange which is good form, and from barrier 3 he maps to get a great run in midfield. Lee Freedman will have him spot on and Oliver is a strong booking. Importantly, however, this horse was beaten by over 2 lengths by Scottish last year at similar weights.
SIR ISAAC NEWTON also has form behind the likes of Highland Reel and Postponed, and finished narrowly ahead of Exospheric two starts ago in the Juddmonte. Slightest of queries over the 2400m, and from barrier 9 he could be in the 3 wide line coming from the back half of the field. Trained by Aidan O'Brien (arguably the world's best trainer) so he wouldn't be here if he wasn't a chance.
ARTICUS is the last of the internationals. This is a lightly raced German horse that is a Group 3 winner two starts ago. I don't think his form is anywhere near as strong as the likes of the other internationals but he is probably the least exposed. He has tactical speed so will be in the first half of the field but will need a good ride by Purton to slot in from barrier 11. This is his first start for Wohler, who trained Protectionist to win the Cup two years ago so you must respect his horses here. Think he is short enough in the market at around $10 but expect him to run well.
To the locals and I think there's four to consider.
JAMEKA obviously has the runs on the board coming into this with an outstanding run behind Hartnell in the Turnbull Stakes last start. She beat the rest of the field by over 3 lengths and previous to that she won the Naturalism by over 3 lengths. She's flying and gets in with 52.5kg so it would be no surprise if she won, but I can't back her at the price.
REAL LOVE is another mare in with 52.5kg and comes off a good win in the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley. She will get the distance, despite some questioning that, but I just have reservations over her ability against the best horses in Group 1 company. I expect her to run well but it would surprise me if she was the winner.
SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD is definitely one to throw in after his win in the Group 1 Metropolitan last start, which was also over 2400m. He has a good record over the distance, looks like he's come back in great form, and will land straight into the box seat from barrier 5. He will be in this for a long way.
The last horse to consider is SACRED MASTER. Once again I have doubts whether he is up to the best horses in this race, but he should have finished closer in the Metropolitan last start and gets in with only 51.5kg here. With more luck here he can run a big race at $21, and you can never rule out Chris Waller in a Group 1.
I am pretty keen to be on SCOTTISH here, but I will be respecting the other internationals, as well as a few of the bigger priced locals. Will be backing Jameka as a saver bet only.
Tip: Scottish
Race 9 - Dilmah For Lovers of Tea Caulfield Sprint 1000m
Great to see the return of Lankan Rupee!
Pretty keen on HELLBENT here though, and the $3.25 that was available earlier in the week is long gone. He's in to $2.10 and rightly so after his enormous win last start. The speed looks pretty hot up front and that will suit this horse who will have the drop on them. He smashed Sheidel last start and she has come out and won since then. Down to 53kg, looks very hard to beat here and shapes as one of the bets of the day.
Tip: Hellbent
Race 10 - Ladbrokes Moonga Stakes 1400m
One clear standout for me here and that is VOODOO LAD, albeit in a tough race. This horse ran 2nd over course and distance in a Group 1 last start, and the form out of that race looks strong. Two starts ago he beat Keen Array who has won multiple races since. Provided Rawiller gives him a chance from barrier 9, he should prove hard to beat, especially as I have a query over whether TAKEDOWN can run a strong 1400m.
Tough race but happy to be on Voodoo Lad to round out the day.
Tip: Voodoo Lad
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
