2015 Darwin Cup Preview and Betting Tips

August 3rd 2015, 10:40am, By: tim_tips

There's nothing better than punting on a Monday, so we're thrilled to have our resident horse racing expert back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips

Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the spring racing season. 

After two close second place finishes in his first two horse racing previews, we're looking for a winner in the Darwin Cup.

Darwin Race 9 - Carlton Mid Darwin Cup - 2000m (6:05pm AEST)

GRIS CARO comes into this 1st up for a new stable. Was horrible in all three starts last prep but gets blinkers 1st time and does have a good record over 2000m. Hard to have here though and needs to show something.

TRAVOLTA represents Gai Waterhouse here but was average last start at this course and hasn't shown much for a while. Does step up to 2000m for the first time this prep and is 3rd up from a spell. Should improve but will need to.

LIGHTINTHENITE comes up favourite and deservedly so after a quite dominant performance last start when trotting in by just under 2L with 61kg at this course. He was first up on that occasion so should improve, but his first up record is significantly better than his 2nd up record. Hugh Bowman takes the ride and the big weight is no concern. Good chance. 

BOLTON put in a good run to finish 3rd behind Lightinthenite two starts ago and drops in weight from that run. Draws well in barrier 3 so should be closer in the run than he was last start. Not for me. 

PAYTEEVEE put in a shocker last start and has been beaten a combined 28 lengths at his last two starts. 

THE RUFFIAN is one at big odds that I expect to run well. Improved sharply last start to finish 2nd behind Whistle Stop and drops 3kg today. His first up run was a complete forget run so given his good run last start he is definitely one to include as a place chance.

PRETTY BLONDE hasn't shown much in two starts back from a spell and will need to improve significantly. Wide draw also makes it tough.

WHISTLE STOP rates a great chance here having finished in the top two at his past three starts. Last start won by nearly 3 lengths and drops in weight again today down to 54kg. Draws perfectly so will get the run of the race but the 2000m might just suit one or two better. Definitely a good winning chance. **Update: Now scratched**

POST D'FRANCE is a handy galloper on his day and is from a good stable but his recent runs haven't been very encouraging. Needs to improve. 

ROYAL REQUEST is the one that I think represents good value in the race around the $8 mark. Has won two on the trot pretty comfortably and has a very good record at the track. Drops down to 54kg today and the step up to 2000m shouldn't pose a problem given he won over 1900m here last start. Only concern is the wide draw but I expect the race to have a good tempo which should give him every chance coming from the back. Top pick.

PROVERB was beaten by Whistle Stop by 5 lengths last start and would need to improve out of sight to turn the tables.

KAYNO ran well three starts ago and wasn't disgraced last start behind Whistle Stop. The step up to 2000m should be beneficial but is another one that needs to improve significantly.

STORM APPROACH is racing well in easier grade than this, recording consecutive 2nd placings before breaking through for a win last start. Drops 7kg from that win but this is a much harder race. Expect it to lead from the inside gate and could hang on for a place.

Verdict

LIGHTINTHENITE comes up a deserved favourite but I think the value is elsewhere. Looks tough to beat but his 2nd up record isn't entirely encouraging and I'd prefer to go with ROYAL REQUEST who is flying and represents better value. THE RUFFIAN is one at good odds that is expected to run well. 

1st Royal Request ($7.00 at William Hill)
2nd Lightinthenite ($2.60 at Sportsbet)
3rd The Ruffian ($10 at Sportsbet)
4th Storm Approach ($19 at Bet365)

* best prices accurate at time of publishing

_ _ _ 

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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